There were five quarterbacks selected in the first round back in April, and back then you might have guessed that Lamar Jackson had the clearest path to the starting lineup. Baltimore had only a struggling Joe Flacco ahead of him, while most of the other teams had highly-paid veteran passers in place. Funny how things work out.
Fast-forward a few months, and all four quarterbacks drafted in the top 10 picks -- Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen and Josh Rosen -- are in the starting lineup. Tyrod Taylor and Sam Bradford have been benched, Josh McCown was beaten out in August, and AJ McCarron was traded away (and then Nathan Peterman was benched). In contrast, Flacco is playing as well as he ever has and should start all season.
Although it's been a little quicker than expected, it's not overly surprising that all these rookies are starting. Over the last 10 years, there been 27 quarterbacks selected in the first round. More than two-thirds (20) of them ended up starting more than half of the season and throwing at least 300 passes, and two more started at least six games and were over 200 attempts (Deshaun Watson, but for injury, would have been well over that). Of the five exceptions, four were pretty much busts; too soon to say on Patrick Mahomes.
Not to say that starting more than half the season guarantees they'll go on to be great pros. Plenty of busy rookies have also busted. But Aaron Rodgers sitting on the bench for three years -- that just doesn't happen anymore with first-round picks.
FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS, ROOKIE NUMBERS (2008-2017) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Pk | Player | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | St |
2012 | 1 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 339 | 627 | 4374 | 23 | 16 |
2016 | 2 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 379 | 607 | 3782 | 16 | 16 |
2010 | 1 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | 354 | 590 | 3512 | 18 | 16 |
2015 | 1 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 312 | 535 | 4042 | 22 | 16 |
2011 | 1 | Cam Newton, Car. | 310 | 517 | 4051 | 21 | 16 |
2012 | 8 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 282 | 484 | 3294 | 12 | 16 |
2008 | 3 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 265 | 434 | 3440 | 16 | 16 |
2008 | 18 | Joe Flacco, Balt. | 257 | 428 | 2971 | 14 | 16 |
2012 | 22 | Brandon Weeden, Clev. | 297 | 517 | 3385 | 14 | 15 |
2012 | 2 | Robert Griffin III, Wash. | 258 | 393 | 3200 | 20 | 15 |
2009 | 5 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 196 | 364 | 2444 | 12 | 15 |
2011 | 10 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 210 | 413 | 2214 | 12 | 14 |
2014 | 3 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 280 | 475 | 2908 | 11 | 13 |
2014 | 32 | Teddy Bridgewater, Minn. | 259 | 402 | 2919 | 14 | 12 |
2015 | 2 | Marcus Mariota, Tenn. | 230 | 370 | 2818 | 19 | 12 |
2017 | 2 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 196 | 330 | 2193 | 7 | 12 |
2009 | 1 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 201 | 377 | 2267 | 13 | 10 |
2013 | 16 | EJ Manuel, Buff. | 180 | 306 | 1972 | 11 | 10 |
2011 | 12 | Christian Ponder, Minn. | 158 | 291 | 1853 | 13 | 10 |
2009 | 17 | Josh Freeman, T.B. | 158 | 290 | 1855 | 10 | 9 |
2016 | 1 | Jared Goff, L.A. | 112 | 205 | 1089 | 5 | 7 |
2017 | 12 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 126 | 204 | 1699 | 19 | 6 |
2010 | 25 | Tim Tebow, Den. | 41 | 82 | 654 | 5 | 3 |
2016 | 26 | Paxton Lynch, Den. | 49 | 83 | 497 | 2 | 2 |
2014 | 22 | Johnny Manziel, Clev. | 18 | 35 | 175 | 0 | 2 |
2017 | 10 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 22 | 35 | 284 | 0 | 1 |
2011 | 8 | Jake Locker, Tenn. | 34 | 66 | 542 | 4 | 0 |
--Andy Richardson