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Revised team projections

Elite offenses separating from the field

In the preseason, I tend to be conservative with my projections, because I’m forecasting what I believe will happen. I don’t tend to go much higher than about 48 touchdowns for offense. But this weekend we’re passing the one-third mark of the season, and it’s become much more apparent which offenses are going to be a lot better than that.

Four stand out above the rest, and I’ve got their players well represented in the revised season-long rankings I sent along earlier in the day. Kansas City, New Orleans, New England and the Rams are all going to score a lot more than 48 touchdowns, and we now better work that into our projections model.

With stats around the league definitely up this year, I have only three offenses averaging under 2 TDs per week – Bills, Cardinals and Cowboys.

OFFENSIVE PROJECTIONS -- TOUCHDOWNS
TeamPassRunTotal
Kansas City41.616.357.9
LA Rams36.020.556.5
New Orleans35.221.356.5
New England36.016.552.5
Atlanta33.915.549.4
LA Chargers34.413.648.0
Pittsburgh33.614.448.0
Philadelphia32.013.645.6
Green Bay34.411.245.6
Cincinnati30.113.443.5
Minnesota34.48.843.2
Seattle28.313.641.9
Carolina22.418.240.6
Tampa Bay32.87.240.0
Baltimore26.412.038.4
Indianapolis31.27.238.4
Detroit28.010.138.1
Houston31.26.437.6
Jacksonville21.616.037.6
NY Giants26.411.237.6
Cleveland21.116.337.4
Washington22.213.335.5
Oakland22.912.535.4
Denver20.514.735.2
Chicago22.412.234.6
Tennessee21.812.834.6
San Francisco21.013.134.1
NY Jets19.214.233.4
Miami26.16.432.5
Dallas16.814.431.2
Arizona16.812.829.6
Buffalo12.514.126.6

For passing (using standard scoring) I’ve got Kansas City and Los Angeles at the top. Two other teams with lousy running games join the four elite offenses in the top half dozen – Houston and Minnesota.

OFFENSIVE PROJECTIONS -- PASSING
TeamYardsTDPoints
Kansas City3002.6045.60
LA Rams3102.2544.50
Houston3201.9543.70
New Orleans3052.2043.70
Minnesota3052.1543.40
New England2952.2543.00
Tampa Bay3052.0542.80
Atlanta2972.1242.42
Pittsburgh2952.1042.10
LA Chargers2832.1541.20
Green Bay2822.1541.10
Indianapolis2901.9540.70
Philadelphia2852.0040.50
Detroit2801.7538.50
Cincinnati2701.8838.28
Oakland2901.4337.58
NY Giants2751.6537.40
Baltimore2721.6537.10
Washington2651.3934.84
Seattle2351.7734.12
Denver2501.2832.68
Cleveland2451.3232.42
San Francisco2451.3132.36
Jacksonville2401.3532.10
Miami2201.6331.78
Tennessee2351.3631.66
Chicago2251.4030.90
Carolina2181.4030.20
NY Jets2181.2029.00
Dallas2051.0526.80
Arizona2001.0526.30
Buffalo175.7822.18

For rushing, I’ve got Carolina, New Orleans and the Rams as my top 3. Colts, Bucs, Vikings and Dolphins bringing up the rear.

OFFENSIVE PROJECTIONS -- RUSHING
TeamYardsTDPoints
Carolina1341.1420.24
New Orleans1181.3319.78
LA Rams1201.2819.68
Denver135.9219.02
Dallas135.9018.90
Jacksonville1251.0018.50
Cleveland1201.0218.12
Kansas City1151.0217.62
New England1131.0317.48
NY Jets118.8917.14
Seattle120.8517.10
San Francisco120.8216.92
Chicago123.7616.86
Tennessee120.8016.80
Atlanta105.9716.32
Washington110.8315.98
LA Chargers108.8515.90
Pittsburgh105.9015.90
Buffalo105.8815.78
Philadelphia105.8515.60
Cincinnati98.8414.84
Green Bay105.7014.70
Oakland100.7814.68
Baltimore100.7514.50
Detroit102.6313.98
Houston112.4013.60
Arizona85.8013.30
NY Giants90.7013.20
Miami95.4011.90
Minnesota85.5511.80
Tampa Bay83.4511.00
Indianapolis77.4510.40

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index