In the preseason, I tend to be conservative with my projections, because I’m forecasting what I believe will happen. I don’t tend to go much higher than about 48 touchdowns for offense. But this weekend we’re passing the one-third mark of the season, and it’s become much more apparent which offenses are going to be a lot better than that.
Four stand out above the rest, and I’ve got their players well represented in the revised season-long rankings I sent along earlier in the day. Kansas City, New Orleans, New England and the Rams are all going to score a lot more than 48 touchdowns, and we now better work that into our projections model.
With stats around the league definitely up this year, I have only three offenses averaging under 2 TDs per week – Bills, Cardinals and Cowboys.
OFFENSIVE PROJECTIONS -- TOUCHDOWNS | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Pass | Run | Total |
Kansas City | 41.6 | 16.3 | 57.9 |
LA Rams | 36.0 | 20.5 | 56.5 |
New Orleans | 35.2 | 21.3 | 56.5 |
New England | 36.0 | 16.5 | 52.5 |
Atlanta | 33.9 | 15.5 | 49.4 |
LA Chargers | 34.4 | 13.6 | 48.0 |
Pittsburgh | 33.6 | 14.4 | 48.0 |
Philadelphia | 32.0 | 13.6 | 45.6 |
Green Bay | 34.4 | 11.2 | 45.6 |
Cincinnati | 30.1 | 13.4 | 43.5 |
Minnesota | 34.4 | 8.8 | 43.2 |
Seattle | 28.3 | 13.6 | 41.9 |
Carolina | 22.4 | 18.2 | 40.6 |
Tampa Bay | 32.8 | 7.2 | 40.0 |
Baltimore | 26.4 | 12.0 | 38.4 |
Indianapolis | 31.2 | 7.2 | 38.4 |
Detroit | 28.0 | 10.1 | 38.1 |
Houston | 31.2 | 6.4 | 37.6 |
Jacksonville | 21.6 | 16.0 | 37.6 |
NY Giants | 26.4 | 11.2 | 37.6 |
Cleveland | 21.1 | 16.3 | 37.4 |
Washington | 22.2 | 13.3 | 35.5 |
Oakland | 22.9 | 12.5 | 35.4 |
Denver | 20.5 | 14.7 | 35.2 |
Chicago | 22.4 | 12.2 | 34.6 |
Tennessee | 21.8 | 12.8 | 34.6 |
San Francisco | 21.0 | 13.1 | 34.1 |
NY Jets | 19.2 | 14.2 | 33.4 |
Miami | 26.1 | 6.4 | 32.5 |
Dallas | 16.8 | 14.4 | 31.2 |
Arizona | 16.8 | 12.8 | 29.6 |
Buffalo | 12.5 | 14.1 | 26.6 |
For passing (using standard scoring) I’ve got Kansas City and Los Angeles at the top. Two other teams with lousy running games join the four elite offenses in the top half dozen – Houston and Minnesota.
OFFENSIVE PROJECTIONS -- PASSING | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TD | Points |
Kansas City | 300 | 2.60 | 45.60 |
LA Rams | 310 | 2.25 | 44.50 |
Houston | 320 | 1.95 | 43.70 |
New Orleans | 305 | 2.20 | 43.70 |
Minnesota | 305 | 2.15 | 43.40 |
New England | 295 | 2.25 | 43.00 |
Tampa Bay | 305 | 2.05 | 42.80 |
Atlanta | 297 | 2.12 | 42.42 |
Pittsburgh | 295 | 2.10 | 42.10 |
LA Chargers | 283 | 2.15 | 41.20 |
Green Bay | 282 | 2.15 | 41.10 |
Indianapolis | 290 | 1.95 | 40.70 |
Philadelphia | 285 | 2.00 | 40.50 |
Detroit | 280 | 1.75 | 38.50 |
Cincinnati | 270 | 1.88 | 38.28 |
Oakland | 290 | 1.43 | 37.58 |
NY Giants | 275 | 1.65 | 37.40 |
Baltimore | 272 | 1.65 | 37.10 |
Washington | 265 | 1.39 | 34.84 |
Seattle | 235 | 1.77 | 34.12 |
Denver | 250 | 1.28 | 32.68 |
Cleveland | 245 | 1.32 | 32.42 |
San Francisco | 245 | 1.31 | 32.36 |
Jacksonville | 240 | 1.35 | 32.10 |
Miami | 220 | 1.63 | 31.78 |
Tennessee | 235 | 1.36 | 31.66 |
Chicago | 225 | 1.40 | 30.90 |
Carolina | 218 | 1.40 | 30.20 |
NY Jets | 218 | 1.20 | 29.00 |
Dallas | 205 | 1.05 | 26.80 |
Arizona | 200 | 1.05 | 26.30 |
Buffalo | 175 | .78 | 22.18 |
For rushing, I’ve got Carolina, New Orleans and the Rams as my top 3. Colts, Bucs, Vikings and Dolphins bringing up the rear.
OFFENSIVE PROJECTIONS -- RUSHING | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TD | Points |
Carolina | 134 | 1.14 | 20.24 |
New Orleans | 118 | 1.33 | 19.78 |
LA Rams | 120 | 1.28 | 19.68 |
Denver | 135 | .92 | 19.02 |
Dallas | 135 | .90 | 18.90 |
Jacksonville | 125 | 1.00 | 18.50 |
Cleveland | 120 | 1.02 | 18.12 |
Kansas City | 115 | 1.02 | 17.62 |
New England | 113 | 1.03 | 17.48 |
NY Jets | 118 | .89 | 17.14 |
Seattle | 120 | .85 | 17.10 |
San Francisco | 120 | .82 | 16.92 |
Chicago | 123 | .76 | 16.86 |
Tennessee | 120 | .80 | 16.80 |
Atlanta | 105 | .97 | 16.32 |
Washington | 110 | .83 | 15.98 |
LA Chargers | 108 | .85 | 15.90 |
Pittsburgh | 105 | .90 | 15.90 |
Buffalo | 105 | .88 | 15.78 |
Philadelphia | 105 | .85 | 15.60 |
Cincinnati | 98 | .84 | 14.84 |
Green Bay | 105 | .70 | 14.70 |
Oakland | 100 | .78 | 14.68 |
Baltimore | 100 | .75 | 14.50 |
Detroit | 102 | .63 | 13.98 |
Houston | 112 | .40 | 13.60 |
Arizona | 85 | .80 | 13.30 |
NY Giants | 90 | .70 | 13.20 |
Miami | 95 | .40 | 11.90 |
Minnesota | 85 | .55 | 11.80 |
Tampa Bay | 83 | .45 | 11.00 |
Indianapolis | 77 | .45 | 10.40 |
—Ian Allan