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Team offensive projections

Revised projections post Week 2

The revised player rankings (season-long rankings) just left my desk. They’ll be showing up in your in-box soon. Lots of changes this week, as it becomes apparent that some offenses are just way ahead of the rest of the league right now. Looks like scoring is going to be way up this year.

I’ve got all of the numbers tied together, so when I make team changes, the players on those teams also move up and down.

The report that just left here focuses on individual players, but some are also interested in the team numbers. So I try to publish those from time to time.

Coming out of Week 2, I have New England, Kansas City, New Orleans, Green Bay and the two Los Angeles teams has the scoring leaders. I have all of those offenses finishing with 47-49 touchdowns, and that might be a little conservative. I might be a couple of touchdowns low on all of those teams. Sorry if I’m coming in a little slow on making those changes.

OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWN PROJECTIONS
TeamPassRunTotal
New England33.016.349.3
Kansas City36.012.048.0
New Orleans31.016.647.7
LA Rams28.818.747.5
LA Chargers33.113.947.0
Green Bay35.211.746.9
Philadelphia31.515.246.7
Pittsburgh31.513.645.1
Minnesota30.412.342.7
Tampa Bay32.08.040.0
Houston29.810.139.8
Atlanta26.213.039.2
Carolina21.816.838.6
Jacksonville20.817.338.1
Baltimore25.111.436.5
Indianapolis28.38.236.5
Oakland25.011.236.2
Cincinnati26.79.336.0
NY Giants23.512.035.5
Seattle25.89.335.0
San Francisco22.412.534.9
Miami25.19.634.7
Washington23.410.734.1
Dallas17.616.033.6
Denver21.612.033.6
Detroit25.87.533.3
Tennessee20.512.633.1
Chicago20.012.832.8
Cleveland20.810.931.7
NY Jets19.511.531.0
Arizona18.69.428.0
Buffalo16.57.524.0

For passing production, I’ve got seven teams averaging over 40 fantasy points per week. That’s standard scoring – 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 yards. If you want to instead use 4 for TD passes and 1 for every 20 yards, those same seven come out top. Bucs, Chargers, Patriots, Packers, Saints, Steelers and Kansas City.

The Bills come in last, and five other teams under 30 points per week – Cowboys, Cardinals, Bears, Jets and Browns.

TEAM PASSING PROJECTIONS
TeamYardsTDPPoints
Tampa Bay2952.0041.5
LA Chargers2902.0741.4
New England2902.0641.4
Green Bay2802.2041.2
New Orleans2951.9441.1
Pittsburgh2901.9740.8
Kansas City2702.2540.5
Minnesota2651.9037.9
Houston2671.8637.9
Indianapolis2671.7737.3
Philadelphia2551.9737.3
Atlanta2701.6436.8
LA Rams2601.8036.8
Detroit2701.6136.7
Oakland2721.5636.6
Cincinnati2521.6735.2
Seattle2551.6135.2
Washington2601.4634.8
Baltimore2521.5734.6
San Francisco2551.4033.9
NY Giants2501.4733.8
Miami2381.5733.2
Denver2351.3531.6
Carolina2301.3631.2
Jacksonville2281.3030.6
Tennessee2281.2830.5
Cleveland2181.3029.6
NY Jets2201.2229.3
Chicago2081.2528.3
Arizona2001.1627.0
Dallas1951.1026.1
Buffalo1921.0325.4

For rushing production, Jaguars, Cowboys and Panthers all have significant offensive line injuries, but I’m sticking with them as the top 3 teams.

TEAM RUSHING PROJECTIONS
TeamYardsTDRPoints
Jacksonville1321.0819.7
Dallas1301.0019.0
Carolina1251.0518.8
Philadelphia125.9518.2
LA Rams1101.1718.0
New England1151.0217.6
New Orleans1101.0417.2
Denver122.7516.7
Atlanta115.8116.4
Chicago115.8016.3
Tennessee115.7916.2
LA Chargers108.8716.0
Houston122.6316.0
Kansas City113.7515.8
San Francisco110.7815.7
Minnesota110.7715.6
Pittsburgh105.8515.6
NY Giants107.7515.2
Miami115.6015.1
Cleveland110.6815.1
NY Jets105.7214.8
Baltimore105.7114.8
Oakland105.7014.7
Washington105.6714.5
Seattle105.5814.0
Green Bay95.7313.9
Buffalo105.4713.3
Cincinnati98.5813.3
Arizona90.5912.5
Tampa Bay95.5012.5
Indianapolis90.5112.1
Detroit83.4711.1

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index