Teams have now played 5-6 games, so it can get more meaningful to look at strength of schedule. You take the numbers so far, plug them into the upcoming schedule, and see which offenses project to travel the easiest roads. It’s usually different than what you expected in the preseason.
For this one, I took the per-game numbers for the defenses – rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, passing yards and passing touchdowns – then plugged them into the next eight games for each team. (So if a team has had its bye already, Weeks 7-14; if the bye is still coming up, then Weeks 7-15.)
I used standard fantasy scoring: 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 yards.
For passing production, the Browns, Ravens, Giants and Bengals project to play the easiest schedules. Cleveland in particular looks appealing, with the Falcons and Bucs coming up soon.
The Colts, Texans, Eagles and Titans project to see the hardest pass defenses in their next eight games. Fans of strength of schedule may recall that Houston back in August projected to play the league’s easiest schedule.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, PASSING (next 8 games) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TDR | Points |
Cleveland | 291 | 2.23 | 42.5 |
Baltimore | 281 | 2.00 | 40.1 |
NY Giants | 273 | 2.09 | 39.8 |
Cincinnati | 279 | 1.95 | 39.6 |
Carolina | 265 | 2.05 | 38.8 |
Denver | 270 | 1.90 | 38.5 |
New Orleans | 268 | 1.82 | 37.7 |
Tampa Bay | 262 | 1.91 | 37.6 |
Washington | 264 | 1.88 | 37.6 |
Arizona | 258 | 1.88 | 37.0 |
Green Bay | 257 | 1.84 | 36.8 |
Buffalo | 258 | 1.82 | 36.7 |
LA Rams | 254 | 1.86 | 36.6 |
Miami | 247 | 1.93 | 36.3 |
Seattle | 247 | 1.91 | 36.2 |
Oakland | 257 | 1.70 | 35.9 |
Minnesota | 247 | 1.83 | 35.7 |
Chicago | 248 | 1.81 | 35.7 |
Atlanta | 252 | 1.75 | 35.7 |
New England | 258 | 1.64 | 35.6 |
San Francisco | 251 | 1.75 | 35.5 |
NY Jets | 251 | 1.71 | 35.4 |
Detroit | 252 | 1.67 | 35.2 |
Jacksonville | 252 | 1.65 | 35.1 |
Kansas City | 252 | 1.65 | 35.1 |
Dallas | 252 | 1.64 | 35.0 |
LA Chargers | 252 | 1.63 | 34.9 |
Pittsburgh | 245 | 1.58 | 34.0 |
Tennessee | 241 | 1.65 | 34.0 |
Philadelphia | 237 | 1.50 | 32.7 |
Houston | 241 | 1.43 | 32.7 |
Indianapolis | 234 | 1.50 | 32.4 |
For rushing, the Chargers, 49ers and Kansas City project to play the easiest schedules (in their next eight). The Titans, Jets and Giants project to play the hardest schedules.
Note that Tennessee (another team that was supposed to play an easy schedule) is the only team ranking in the bottom 4 on both lists. That offense isn’t working against anyone right now, and they’ll need to overcome a harder schedule.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, RUSHING (next 8 games) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TDR | Points |
LA Chargers | 130 | 1.00 | 19.0 |
San Francisco | 122 | 1.00 | 18.2 |
Kansas City | 124 | .90 | 17.8 |
Houston | 119 | .92 | 17.4 |
Arizona | 120 | .88 | 17.3 |
Baltimore | 112 | .98 | 17.0 |
Pittsburgh | 119 | .85 | 17.0 |
Tampa Bay | 111 | .97 | 16.9 |
LA Rams | 114 | .86 | 16.6 |
Cincinnati | 108 | .92 | 16.3 |
Green Bay | 114 | .81 | 16.2 |
Oakland | 110 | .85 | 16.1 |
Denver | 110 | .83 | 16.0 |
Cleveland | 105 | .85 | 15.6 |
Indianapolis | 113 | .71 | 15.6 |
Minnesota | 112 | .72 | 15.5 |
Chicago | 117 | .63 | 15.5 |
Philadelphia | 101 | .83 | 15.1 |
Atlanta | 98 | .88 | 15.1 |
New England | 106 | .73 | 15.0 |
Seattle | 109 | .69 | 15.0 |
Dallas | 97 | .83 | 14.7 |
Detroit | 106 | .62 | 14.4 |
Washington | 98 | .75 | 14.3 |
Carolina | 98 | .72 | 14.1 |
New Orleans | 96 | .73 | 14.0 |
Miami | 106 | .53 | 13.8 |
Buffalo | 106 | .52 | 13.8 |
Jacksonville | 99 | .63 | 13.7 |
NY Giants | 90 | .77 | 13.6 |
NY Jets | 103 | .56 | 13.6 |
Tennessee | 101 | .50 | 13.1 |
—Ian Allan