Call me crazy, but I kind of like Raheem Mostert. He’s got some giddyup, and the 49ers can run the ball. They’ve also got a very favorable schedule for the run coming up.
The 49ers thus far rank 3rd in rushing. They’ve run for at least 147 yards in four of the last five games. (One touchdown in each of those four.) And as I look at the upcoming schedule, I see some soft run defenses coming up. Rams are next, and I think they’re average. Then they’ve got the Cardinals, Raiders and Giants. I think there’s some production waiting there.
After a bye, they’ve got Tampa Bay, and I also see the run-challenged Broncos in Week 14.
The 49ers, I think, will continue to put up good rushing numbers, and Mostert I think looks very firm as their No. 2 behind Matt Breida. Both of those backs have a lot more burst than Alfred Morris. With Breida playing on a gimpy ankle, I suppose there’s some chance that Mostert at some point might have to be a starter.
I put together new projections for each offense each week. As part of that process, I look at the upcoming schedules. I give more weight to the games that can be seen in the near future. The 49ers are playing Chicago in Week 16; I don’t care so much about that right now. So on my current team projections (which are tied to the individual player rankings that went out in the redrafter) I currently have the 49ers with the 2nd-best rushing projection. That’s using standard scoring – 1 for every 10 yards and 6 for each rushing touchdown.
OFFENSIVE PROJECTIONS -- RUSHING | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TDR | Points |
LA Rams | 130 | 1.35 | 21.1 |
San Francisco | 140 | .95 | 19.7 |
New Orleans | 115 | 1.33 | 19.5 |
Dallas | 135 | .96 | 19.3 |
Seattle | 135 | .90 | 18.9 |
Chicago | 140 | .80 | 18.8 |
Cleveland | 125 | .97 | 18.3 |
New England | 116 | 1.08 | 18.1 |
Denver | 125 | .88 | 17.8 |
Pittsburgh | 110 | 1.13 | 17.8 |
LA Chargers | 120 | .94 | 17.6 |
Kansas City | 113 | 1.00 | 17.3 |
Washington | 115 | .95 | 17.2 |
Carolina | 120 | .85 | 17.1 |
Baltimore | 110 | .90 | 16.4 |
Jacksonville | 110 | .85 | 16.1 |
NY Jets | 110 | .83 | 16.0 |
Philadelphia | 110 | .82 | 15.9 |
Cincinnati | 100 | .90 | 15.4 |
Buffalo | 105 | .78 | 15.2 |
Atlanta | 95 | .93 | 15.1 |
Tennessee | 105 | .72 | 14.8 |
NY Giants | 103 | .75 | 14.8 |
Green Bay | 105 | .70 | 14.7 |
Detroit | 103 | .68 | 14.4 |
Oakland | 92 | .68 | 13.3 |
Houston | 110 | .37 | 13.2 |
Miami | 100 | .45 | 12.7 |
Arizona | 77 | .83 | 12.7 |
Minnesota | 95 | .53 | 12.7 |
Tampa Bay | 90 | .45 | 11.7 |
Indianapolis | 85 | .45 | 11.2 |
For touchdowns, I’ve got the usual cast of characters near the top – Kansas City, New Orleans, Rams and New England. These numbers don’t include what teams have done already. They’re a guess of how many touchdowns each offense would score if it were starting a new 16-game season today.
OFFENSIVE PROJECTIONS -- TOUCHDOWNS | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Pass | Run | Total |
Kansas City | 41.6 | 16.0 | 57.6 |
New Orleans | 35.2 | 21.3 | 56.5 |
LA Rams | 33.6 | 21.6 | 55.2 |
New England | 35.2 | 17.3 | 52.5 |
Pittsburgh | 32.8 | 18.1 | 50.9 |
LA Chargers | 34.4 | 15.0 | 49.4 |
Atlanta | 34.4 | 14.9 | 49.3 |
Philadelphia | 34.4 | 13.1 | 47.5 |
Green Bay | 34.4 | 11.2 | 45.6 |
Cincinnati | 29.8 | 14.4 | 44.2 |
Seattle | 28.8 | 14.4 | 43.2 |
Tampa Bay | 34.4 | 7.2 | 41.6 |
Baltimore | 26.9 | 14.4 | 41.3 |
Minnesota | 32.5 | 8.5 | 41.0 |
Indianapolis | 33.6 | 7.2 | 40.8 |
Carolina | 26.4 | 13.6 | 40.0 |
Detroit | 28.5 | 10.9 | 39.4 |
Chicago | 26.4 | 12.8 | 39.2 |
San Francisco | 23.2 | 15.2 | 38.4 |
Cleveland | 22.1 | 15.5 | 37.6 |
Washington | 20.8 | 15.2 | 36.0 |
Houston | 29.6 | 5.9 | 35.5 |
Denver | 20.5 | 14.1 | 34.6 |
Jacksonville | 20.8 | 13.6 | 34.4 |
Miami | 26.9 | 7.2 | 34.1 |
NY Giants | 22.1 | 12.0 | 34.1 |
NY Jets | 19.8 | 13.3 | 33.1 |
Dallas | 17.0 | 15.4 | 32.3 |
Oakland | 20.8 | 10.9 | 31.7 |
Arizona | 16.5 | 13.3 | 29.8 |
Tennessee | 17.0 | 11.5 | 28.5 |
Buffalo | 10.9 | 12.5 | 23.4 |
For passing, I’ve got Kansas City, Tampa Bay and New Orleans at the top. That’s using standard scoring (6 for TDs, 1 for every 10 yards). If you instead use 4 for TDs and 1 for every 20 yards, the ordering would likely be pretty much identical.
OFFENSIVE PROJECTIONS -- PASSING | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TDP | Points |
Kansas City | 305 | 2.60 | 46.1 |
Tampa Bay | 325 | 2.15 | 45.4 |
New Orleans | 310 | 2.20 | 44.2 |
Atlanta | 312 | 2.15 | 44.1 |
Pittsburgh | 315 | 2.05 | 43.8 |
Green Bay | 305 | 2.15 | 43.4 |
Indianapolis | 305 | 2.10 | 43.1 |
LA Rams | 305 | 2.10 | 43.1 |
New England | 295 | 2.20 | 42.7 |
Minnesota | 300 | 2.03 | 42.2 |
Philadelphia | 290 | 2.15 | 41.9 |
Houston | 300 | 1.85 | 41.1 |
LA Chargers | 275 | 2.15 | 40.4 |
Detroit | 280 | 1.78 | 38.7 |
Cincinnati | 265 | 1.86 | 37.7 |
Baltimore | 270 | 1.68 | 37.1 |
Oakland | 280 | 1.30 | 35.8 |
NY Giants | 270 | 1.38 | 35.3 |
Chicago | 240 | 1.65 | 33.9 |
Seattle | 230 | 1.80 | 33.8 |
San Francisco | 250 | 1.45 | 33.7 |
Denver | 260 | 1.28 | 33.7 |
Cleveland | 250 | 1.38 | 33.3 |
Miami | 230 | 1.68 | 33.1 |
Carolina | 230 | 1.65 | 32.9 |
Washington | 245 | 1.30 | 32.3 |
Jacksonville | 240 | 1.30 | 31.8 |
NY Jets | 218 | 1.24 | 29.2 |
Tennessee | 205 | 1.06 | 26.9 |
Arizona | 205 | 1.03 | 26.7 |
Dallas | 195 | 1.06 | 25.9 |
Buffalo | 172 | .68 | 21.3 |
—Ian Allan