Ian Allan answers your fantasy questions. In this edition: Are players more productive coming off bye weeks? What are fair expectations for running backs coming off hamstring injuries (Cook, Fournette)? Is it time to pull the plug on Kyle Rudolph and Jermaine Kearse?
Question 1
Would you please run the offensive numbers for teams returning from bye weeks. I am wondering if they are "rusty" or "fresh and anxious to 'run like the wind'".
Taylor Edward (Wisconsin)
In the last three years, there have been 30 instances in which a team came out of its bye to play a divisional opponent. This is a nifty, naturally-occurring experiment. We’ve got the same two teams playing twice in the same year – once in a regular game, and once with one of the teams having the advantage of having had an extra week to rest and prepare. (There were actually four other matchups of this sort that I tossed out because the follow-up game occurred in Week 17, with one of the teams resting notable players.) But for the 30 series that look meaningful, we can look at the before and after numbers and see if there’s a meaningful difference.
I don’t see anything too interesting. Teams went 15-15 coming out byes. They went 13-17 in the other 30 games (some of those occurred later in the season, and some of them occurred earlier in the year – before the bye). Teams averaged 5 more rushing yards per game coming out of byes (103 to 98). But they averaged 4 fewer passing yards (244 to 248). In short, it’s a neat idea, but I don’t think it’s going to help you find a secret edge in your fantasy league.
Question 2
I can't really remember how the "eligible to return" thing works with IR. Is preseason phenom Chris Warren eligible to return? Could Oakland activate him after week 8? They obviously have a need now, and I suspect Warren never had an actual injury in the first place – they were just stashing him, right? Just curious if he's worth adding to the end of a bench in a big league. Thanks as always!
Bill Rehor (Culver City, CA)
Clever idea. I like it. But Warren won’t be playing in 2018. To be eligible to return from injured reserve, the player must first be on the team’s 53-man opening day roster. The Raiders chose to put Warren on injured reserve prior to the season, so he’s out until 2019. Too bad. It would have been interesting to see him get a chance in the regular season.
Question 3
Drew Brees is my QB, and with his bye already in the past, would it make more sense to carry Teddy Bridgewater on my roster rather than some of the free agent options on our waiver wire like Bortles, Manning, Darnold, Keenum, etc? The thinking being that if Brees was hurt, Bridgewater would put up better numbers then those other guys.
MARK CHRISTIE (Fairport, NY)
If Brees were to get hurt today, you would definitely select Bridgewater over all of the guys you mention. On the downside, however, if you carry Bridgewater, you’re leaving another quarterback in play for others to potentially pick up and use. Eli Manning, for example, in Week 11 is playing at home against Tampa Bay. I would prefer to tighten the screws and take away that option. I like the thinking, and I’m employing the same strategy in a league (carrying Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick). But in this case, I would be inclined to carry Manning rather than Bridgewater.
Question 4
Jermaine Kearse. C’mon maaaaaaaaaaan.
Martin Kaufman (Paoli, PA)
He was on the field for 90 percent of New York’s plays and somehow didn’t catch a pass. That’s hard to believe. But I wouldn’t kick him to the curb just yet. I don’t think the Jets will have either Robby Anderson or Quincy Enunwa this weekend. They cut Terrelle Pryor. Kearse looks pretty firm as their No. 1 receiver, and the Bears have given up a lot of passing production recently – that defense is a lot better against the run. Kearse caught 9 passes in Week 6. With four teams being out on byes, I think he belongs in the discussion of receivers you might have to plug in as a lesser, desperation starter (preferably in a PPR format).
Question 5
Dynasty league TD-heavy TE question. I have Kyle Rudolph who has seen limited targets and no TDs since week 2. Would you replace him for either Chris Herndon or Michael Roberts? There are 24 teams in my league so there is slim pickings
HOWIE FISHMAN (Hermosa Beach, CA)
I’ve got Rudolph in a league or two, and he’s been bugging me. He’s averaging only 40 yards per game. How is that possible, with Kirk Cousins averaging 309 per game? But you included “TD-heavy” in the question, and I think it’s too early to give up on Rudolph as a red zone option. I saw them try to get the ball to him twice in the end zone in the Jets game. He’s caught 2 TDs, and he’s on an offense that probably will finish with 30-plus touchdown passes. That’s enough to keep him over guys like Herndon and Roberts, I think. If you’re allowed to carry a backup tight end (who might eventually move past Rudolph) then Roberts or Herndon would be a good fit for that spot. Also consider Ed Dickson, who’ll likely debut for Seattle this weekend and might be their No. 1 tight end soon.
Question 6
What is your take on the Rams and Chiefs, whose stars are this year's featured acts, as they get close to playoff time and could have no divisional or bye prospects to play for? I mean, the Chiefs ought to be provoked by their loss to the Pats for top spot, but the Rams? Depending on Philly (and Philly alone), even that Week 15 game hosting the Eagles, could be inconsequential, given the Rams' showing and weak division games remaining. After having Gurley and Woods all weeks of your great season, might you be starting Malcolm Brown or Josh Reynolds in your fantasy bowl? (I don't even know who's Goff's backup)
Vin Kmetz ()
Good observation. Both Andy Reid and Sean McVay in the past have shown they will rest players when given the opportunity. Very good chance that both of those teams will be emptying the benches in Week 17. But too soon, I think, to get overly concerned about Weeks 15-16. The Saints are only a game back in the NFC and host the Rams next week. The Patriots hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Kansas City. Individual stats might also play a role. If Todd Gurley and Patrick Mahomes could potentially break NFL scoring records, that would make it harder to sit them down.
Question 7
If/when Fournette resumes his starting role, is he a top 10 RB? With Yeldon and Hyde in the mix, how do I think about Fournette’s value when he comes back from his hamstring injury?
Chris Dilillo (Hamel, MN)
I would say more like top 15 rather than top 10. Jacksonville’s running game has been pretty awful so far, averaging only 99 yards per game. That’s despite Blake Bortles averaging 31 rushing yards. So if we set aside quarterback runs, this has been a bottom-5 running game. Not having Fournette has been a factor, of course, but the offensive line also has underperformed – it’s not blowing people off the ball. And I expect we’ll continue to see T.J. Yeldon mixed liberally as a change-of-pace option; he’s a much better pass catcher.
Question 8
Exploring a trade for Cohen and Allison, who are super high in this week’s redrafter (PPR). What’s the thinking behind the move up in both players? The trade would be Robert Woods for Cohen and Allison. Any thoughts? Seems like I’m giving up on a high quality WR for two outside players.
dan renzi (Moorestown, NJ)
I would make that trade. Chicago’s offense has really come to life, with 14 TDs in its last three games (after just 4 TDs in the first three weeks). Cohen is a big part of that. As a runner, he’s a change-of-pace guy, but he’s a mismatch piece in the passing game. He’s caught 22 passes for 280 yards and 2 TDs in his last three games. (You’re playing PPR scoring, right?) And Allison is for real – the 2nd-best pass catcher in a an offense where they’ll be passing a lot. When the Rams have all three of their wide receivers healthy, Allison might be just as good as Woods. (Right now Kupp is out, helping Woods get more looks.)
Question 9
Some QBs feel more comfortable throwing inside the numbers to slot receivers and TEs than to outside receivers. Sam Darnold seems to be one of these guys. I bring this up because I heard an interesting take about the disappointing performance from Jermaine Kearse this past weekend but couldn't find any supporting info to verify it. The take is that in Week 6 when Kearse caught 9 of 10 targets for 94 yards, he filled in for Enunwa playing in the slot. But the following week when Kearse put up a goose egg with only 2 targets, they moved him to the outside because Pryor was injured and the slot receiver combination that game of Roberts and Burnett saw a total of 8 targets. I bring this up because the Jets just signed Rishard Matthews which may move Kearse back into the slot where we can see production similar to his Week 6 box score versus what we got this past weekend. Thoughts?
Cody Hager (Portland, OR)
I like the theory. But I just re-watched four of their possessions against Minnesota. I saw Kearse lined up as a slot receiver many times, and I saw him close the action most of the time (lined up within a few yards of the tackle). There may have been some positional dynamics at play here. Herndon is a tight end, but it looks like they were using him more as a wide receiver. That might have been a factor, and perhaps Rishard Matthews shakes things up. But maybe this was just a deal dictated by coverages or matchups. On the first pass thrown to Kearse, it’s a ball that never should have been thrown. He was well covered by two defenders. Regardless, I still have some nominal interest in Kearse as a fill-in receiver in Week 8.
Question 10
What is going on with Minnesota's Dalvin Cook's hamstring? I'm getting to doubt if he will return as an effective running back. Rumors are he will not return until after Week 10 bye. Should I cut him and pick up Tarik Cohen, Nick Chubb, Marlon Mack or keep waiting?
CHRIS JONES (Boise, ID)
I believe Cook had some kind of setback when he practiced fully a week ago. He hasn’t practiced at all since. Right now, I think the best-case scenario is that they come back from their Week 10 bye and he’s healthy. If you were walking into a draft today, I don’t think you would consider selecting Cook before any of those players you mention.
Question 11
I'm in a 12-team PPR league, and I'm trying to upgrade my RBs. I have Melvin Gordon, who has been great, but my other RBs (Dion Lewis, Chris Carson, Kenyan Drake and Wendall Smallwood) have not been consistently good. I'm considering trading Philip Rivers (my other QB is Patrick Mahomes) and Kenyan Drake for Marlon Mack. The other side of the trade has Saquon Barkley, LeSean McCoy, Marlon Mack and Gio Bernard. From my perspective, part of the motivation for doing this deal is that Mitch Trubisky is available and would seem to be a very capable substitute during Mahomes' Week 12 bye. What do you think?
Jason Curran (Bronxville, NY)
Sounds good to me. Rivers is a better quarterback, of course, but with the way Trubisky keeps running for 30-plus yards, he might finish with better numbers in most fantasy formats.
Question 12
Looking to secure a handcuff RB soon. Any preference on Malcolm Brown vs. Spencer Ware? I have neither Gurley nor Hunt.
BRYAN BERTSCH (Hopkins, MN)
They both look good to me. Gurley right now is on pace to finish the season with 386 touches. It will be hard for him to stay healthy with that kind of workload. Hunt is on pace to finish at a more manageable 304.
Question 13
What are your thoughts on LeVeon Bell upon return? In a PPR league where I'm pretty stacked at RB, I have been offered Gronk for Bell. My current tight end is Engram. Would you make that trade?
Mike Bayless ()
I would take Gronkowski. He’s definitely a difference maker, and you know what you’re getting. With Bell, you’re not sure when he’s showing up, what kind of shape he’s in, and how he’ll be used. He might share time with James Conner. With you having depth at that position, probably best to take the opportunity to shift to Gronkowski. That gets you out of having to worry about the Giants being able to stay afloat for Evan Engram.
Question 14
We are having a mid-season draft, what running backs would you suggest taking?
Dan Laughlin (Encinitas, CA)
There are a half-dozen really good ones that have been cutting it up. They’ll probably be selected first. There are three really good ones who haven’t been on the field much yet that I expect will go in the top 20 – Bell, Fournette, Cook. If LeSean McCoy gets traded to Philadelphia, he might re-emerge as a top-15 back. And it always makes sense to budget for injuries in the late rounds, trying to pick up a good number of backup running backs.
Question 15
I have been offered a trade: Shepard, D.Thomas, J.White and Brees for Roethlisberger and M.Gordon. Would you do it?
Brad Woodward (Breckenridge, TX)
You might consider Brees and Roethlisberger to be interchangeable. They’re similar. So it comes down to whether you want one really good player (Gordon), or three lesser guys who have some value. If it’s PPR scoring, then James White and Sterling Shepard catch enough passes that maybe you think about it. In general, however, I think it would be smarter to stick with the one player in there who’s a real difference maker. With injuries and trades, players keep showing up on the waiver wire (in fantasy leagues) and some of those players might be better than guys like Demaryius Thomas.