Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Is Ito Smith the new goal-line back in Atlanta? Will Chris Hogan rebound in the coming weeks? And can the Raiders get Derek Carr back on track?

Question 1

As handcuffs for Devonta Freeman, I've picked up Tevin Coleman and Romarius "Ito" Smith. With Freeman now on IR, I have to decide which one to start in a TD-heavy scoring format. Over the past several years, when both Freeman and Coleman have been healthy enough to play, Freeman has had the bulk of the goal-line carries despite being about 4" shorter and 20 lbs. less than Coleman. Smith is about the same size as Freeman and has scored rushing TD's in the last three games despite playing fewer snaps than Coleman. Is it safe to assume that Smith is now the Falcon's short-yardage back, over Coleman, and his likely successor when Coleman's Rookie contract expires after this year?

Drew Paterson (Ferndale, WA)

In the final 11 weeks of the season, Coleman will lead Atlanta in rushing touchdowns. He’s their starter, he’ll probably get twice as many touches, and I think he’ll be their primary option in goal-line situations. I realize that Smith has scored three weeks in a row, but I don’t see any sign that they’re honing in on him as a primary option in short-yardage situation. He scored on 14- and 7-yard runs against the Bucs and Bengals. He scored on a 2-yard touchdown against the Steelers, but it was with the team trailing 27-10 in the fourth quarter – I think Pittsburgh was looking for a pass. To me, Smith looks like a nice No. 2, but I would be starting Coleman ahead of him every week in a TD-only format. Neither one of these backs has ideal size for goal-line situations. Smith is small (5-9, 195), looking like a third-down back, while Coleman is built almost like a wide receiver (6-1, 210). Freeman (5-8, 206) is more ruggedly built.

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Question 2

I want to give some feedback about the Patriots WR situation. I think everyone is rushing to judgment too quickly that Josh Gordon is the WR to own opposite of Edelman due to the increase in snap count and targets against Kansas City. But what many fantasy outlets fail to mention is that Chris Hogan was limited in practice all week due to a thigh injury and the uptick in playing time for Gordon could be more to do with just limited practice time from Hogan and we'll go back to seeing playing time distribution like what happened in Week 5 where Hogan led the team in snaps. Am I on an island with this opinion?

Cody Hager (Portland, OR)

The Patriots have a bunch of wide receivers who are serviceable contributors, including Phillip Dorsett and Cordarrelle Patterson. To me, Chris Hogan looks like one of those guys. He knows the offense, they can put him on the field, and every once in a while, he’ll come through with a good game or a key catch. He’s a pro. But he’s not special. After six weeks, he’s averaging 2.5 catches and 37 yards per game, with 2 TDs in six games. That’s playing with the greatest quarterback to ever play the game.

HOGAN, GAME BY GAME
OpponentTimeTgtRecYardsTD
Hou. (W 27-20)91%51110
at Jac. (L 20-31)90%53422
at Det. (L 10-26)100%43310
Mia. (W 38-7)86%11250
Ind. (W 38-24)91%43340
K.C. (W 43-3060%44780

On the game logs, I’ve including the playing time percentage. Normally he’s on the field for over 90 percent of their plays. He was down at 60 percent last week. As you point out, he missed practice time. But the decline could also be tied to the Patriots wanting to give more playing time to Josh Gordon, and I believe that’s a factor. Gordon doesn’t know the offense as well, of course, but he’s a lot bigger and faster. He creates a lot more problems for defenses, and I think successfully working him into the offense is key in New England’s hopes of getting to yet another Super Bowl. With that big body, Gordon is a friendlier target on slant routes, and he’s got a lot more ability to win in one-on-one situations on longer throws downfield. If I were picking players for the final 11 weeks of the season, I would choose Gordon long before Hogan.

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Question 3

What is your level of concern with Derek Carr? To me (a lifelong Raider fan) it seems like he's never been the same after breaking his leg. I know the O-line has loads of issues, but he just seems constantly panicked back there and has going on 2 seasons now. He throws TERRIBLE picks off of his back foot (often in the end zone), and he just doesn't seem tough enough. Maybe my opinion is jaded by my fandom, but I just don't have confidence in him turning it around. Would love to hear your thoughts on the guy. Oh, and I'm 5-1, 5-1, 4-2, 4-2 and 3-3 in my leagues so far – just shows why I've been a 22-year subscriber. Thanks man!

Scott Anderson (Lakewood, CO)

Carr has always tended to get rid of the ball super quick. One Mississippi, Two Mississippi, throw. If the player’s there, hit it. Otherwise take a check-down or throw it away. Don’t get hit, don’t take sacks, don’t throw interceptions. Which is fine, if the goal is develop into a serviceable game manager. But if you’re willing to take more risks (sometimes holding the ball longer or trying to hit the tighter windows) you can come up with more touchdowns and long completions. Jon Gruden has tried to change the way Carr plays, but so far he’s made him worst. Carr still isn’t making the high-payoff throws, but now he’s throwing the ball over and taking sacks. Gruden has a long history of making lesser quarterbacks look good. Bobby Hoying and Rodney Peete had some success under Gruden in Philadelphia in the ‘90s. He helped make Rich Gannon an MVP and won a Super Bowl with Brad Johnson. I understand that they’ve been working together for only six weeks. And the Raiders are trying to play rookies at both tackle spots, which is a huge problem – the pass protection wasn’t good enough in London on Sunday. But if the Raiders can’t get more out of Carr in the second half of the season, they’ll probably think about trading out quarterbacks in the offseason. He’s got a base salary of $19.9 million next year. If they don’t think he’s going to develop into one of the league’s top 15 quarterbacks, it might be time to pull the plug.

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Question 4

I have Baltimore’s defense, should I switch out to Washington or Colts?

Jim Venettis (Farmington, MI)

The Ravens defense, of course, is the best. But for Week 7, the matchups indicate you should consider plugging in one of the lesser groups. Drew Brees is a notoriously tough opponent. In his last 16 games (a season’s worth of action), he’s taken only 24 sacks and turned the ball over only 6 times. It will be difficult for Baltimore to get more than 2 sacks and a takeaway against him. Washington’s defense isn’t as good, but it’s facing Dak Prescott. He’s taken 44 sacks in his last 16 games, with 17 turnovers. The Colts are at home against Derek Anderson, and he’s the X factor. He hasn’t played a lot in recent years. He started only 3 games in his last four years with the Panthers (all, oddly, against Tampa Bay) and did a decent enough job of not beating himself, with just 4 sacks and 3 turnovers in those games. This time, Anderson is stepping behind the wheel of a lesser Buffalo offense that’s allowed 24 sacks and 9 interceptions in six games, which is everything you could hope for in a matchup. The Bills have a terrible offensive line. But a lot of those sacks can be attributed to using inexperienced quarterbacks. Anderson isn’t as talented as Josh Allen, but he probably has a much better feel for at least not beating himself. The Colts don’t have a great defense, and they’ve had a lot of injuries. For me, if I’m looking at just Week 7, I would start Indianapolis. If I were starting the Ravens, it would be because they’re too good to place on waivers (if you start Baltimore, it gives you the flexibility to use the Colts roster spot on another position).

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Question 5

I'm currently sitting at 5-1 and maybe it's a but soon to be thinking about this, but I was wondering if you guys might have any recommendations on players to target in trade for the fantasy playoffs in weeks 14-16?

Brian Boyd (Williston, VT)

I plugged the current defensive numbers into the schedule. For Weeks 14-16, four teams will play their games against teams currently allowing an average of over 28 points – Ravens, Panthers, Broncos, Cowboys. Three others show up with 27-plus points, and they all have notable offenses: Seahawks, Saints, Steelers. The four offenses projecting to play the hardest schedules in Weeks 14-16, as luck would have it, are four of the best: Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Philadelphia and the Rams.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 14-16)
TeamPoints
Baltimore29.1
Carolina28.4
Denver28.1
Dallas28.0
Seattle27.7
New Orleans27.7
Pittsburgh27.3
Arizona26.6
Cincinnati26.2
Oakland25.9
Buffalo25.3
Cleveland24.9
Green Bay24.8
Chicago24.5
New England24.3
Houston24.2
Minnesota23.9
Detroit23.6
Miami23.4
Atlanta23.3
NY Jets23.3
Tennessee22.9
NY Giants22.9
LA Chargers22.6
Indianapolis22.3
Washington21.9
San Francisco21.5
Jacksonville20.9
LA Rams20.6
Philadelphia19.9
Tampa Bay19.3
Kansas City18.8

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Question 6

In this week's write-ups you summarize much of the same stuff regarding Drake/Gore and talk pretty highly of Marlon Mack, but you have Drake ranked well ahead for this week.

Bill Petilli (Harrison, NY)

If we’re walking into a draft today, I would take Mack before Drake or Gore. I would hope that he’s over the hamstring issues, and maybe he’s pretty good in the second half of the season. I would be hoping for top-20 running back numbers. But both backfields use committee situations. In Indianapolis, Nyheim Hines is catching a ton of balls; I think he’ll play on a lot of third downs. And they might work in Robert Turbin for a large chunk of the goal-line work (not that there will be a ton of it with that team). None of these backs are great. Unlikely that any of them put up top-15 numbers in the final 11 weeks of the season. That’s the season-long view. If we re-focus on Week 7, Colts are home against Buffalo. The Bills are a flawed team, but I think the defense there looks like a middle-of-the-pack group. They rank 8th in run defense. The Lions, meanwhile, have the 3rd-worst run defense in the league. So far more potential, I think, that the Dolphins put up far better rushing numbers than what people are expecting. They’ve got Brock Osweiler starting at quarterback, and that might cause them to adjust what they’re trying to do. Drake is also capable of making some big plays catching passes. So if I’m picking one of these guys for this week, I will go with Drake.

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Question 7

I took Derrick Henry in the first round in three keeper leagues (PPR, Standard, TD only) and have been patiently waiting for him to pay dividends. Is it time to let him go in all three leagues?

JOHN BENNETT (Chino, CA)

Henry has some ability. He’s shown it. This is the guy, recall, who ran for 156 yards to help Tennessee win a playoff game in Kansas City in January. They’ve got one of the best pairs of tackles in the league. It’s just a matter of them putting things together and using him right. But that hasn’t happened this season. He’s averaged under 3.2 yards per attempt in all but one game. He’s tall (6-foot-3), with long legs and an upright running style. He’s pretty neat to watch when he gets moving in the open field, but when he’s forced to rely more on quickness and elusiveness (which more often has been the case this year) he looks pretty ordinary. He’s not much of a pass catcher. They’ve got the other back, Dion Lewis, who seems to fit better what they’re trying to do offense. I wouldn’t want to be unsuccessfully plugging Henry into lineups week after week. He’s worth a fantasy roster spot; in theory, they may get him going at some point. But if you’re in a position where you need to get some starts out of that position, you may have to weigh Henry against what’s available on the waiver wire.

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Question 8

How many players on your roster from one or two high-scoring teams are too many? My league has a midseason draft after Week 7; we get to keep 5 players. The latest Redrafter, customized for our TD-heavy scoring system, shows my top 5 players are KC's Hunt and Hill, NO's Ingram and Kamara (these four ranked between 6 and 13 overall) and Philly's Ertz. I know Kansas City and New Orleans are the two of the top-scoring offenses, but still a little nervous about putting so many eggs in two baskets. If I were to let one of these 5 go, my next keeper would be Evans. BTW, I'm 6-0 thanks in part to your advice. Much appreciated.

Eric Pryne (Vashon, WA)

Kansas City, Saints, Rams, Patriots. I’ll take as many players from these teams as I can fit on my roster. If you were to have Mahomes, Hunt, Hill and Kelce on the same roster, how would that be a bad thing? I would stick with your two pairs of star teammates – try to ride those hot offenses to championships. With Ingram and Kamara, they provide some insurance against each other (if one of them gets hurt in the second half of the season, the other would then get a lot better). That’s a solid five you have in place. I wouldn’t be looking to move Mike Evans into that group. Then you’re getting into the overcrowding issues in Tampa Bay’s offense. Evans has caught only 3 of their 16 TD passes so far.

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Question 9

I need to drop a receiver to pick up a kicker. I am torn between Will Fuller, Calvin Ridley, and Alshon Jeffery. Can you help?

GEORGE BIEDERMANN (Shingle Spgs, CA)

Jeffery isn’t in the discussion, in my opinion. He keeps making plays. The Eagles are passing the ball a lot more this year than they did last season, and he’s their main downfield option. He stays. Fuller went over 100 yards and scored in each of his first two games. He’s been a little banged up with hamstring issues over the last two months, but when he’s on, you can start him with some hope you’re getting top-10 receiving numbers. Ridley caught 6 TDs in three games at one point. He left the Bucs game with an ankle injury, but he’s doing some work in practice, so I don’t think he’ll be out for long. How are you supposed to cut any of those guys? If I were in that situation, I would double check the rest of the roster. If you have a kicker on a bye – Crosby, Boswell, whoever – I would cut him before any of these receivers. If you had a reserve quarterback along the lines of Joe Flacco or Alex Smith, maybe that guy gets tossed. If your roster is simply stacked, then Fuller is the guy I would toss. He’s had injury issues his entire career, and he’s playing with a quarterback who’s also a huge injury risk (given the amount of punishment Deshaun Watson is taking nowadays).

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Question 10

I see Deandre Hopkins is rated pretty low this week against the Jags. I understand the Jags are pretty good on defense, but is there any way you recommend sitting this top-flight WR ahead of players like Tyler Boyd , Jarvis Landry, etc because of this matchup?

Marc Ferro (Osseo, MN)

I think that possibility is on the table. Jacksonville's defense is remarkably tough, and I think they're going to be focused and looking to put together a bounce-back effort this week. So it would be reasonable to at least consider instead starting somebody like Tyler Boyd or Jarvis Landry. They're both facing defenses that have given up a ton of passing production. But Hopkins is a tough guy to sit. He was able to catch 11 passes for 135 yards and 2 TDs against Jacksonville last year, and that was with Watson playing in only 2 of those 8 quarters.

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Question 11

Ethical question. I have a strong deep team, and there is a very weak team who just got their first win, but has little shot at the playoffs. They do, however, have Antonio Brown. I was thinking about making a fair offer, to give him 3 or 4 decent starters (Tate, James White, and maybe Ebron) for him. I am afraid of the backlash from the other members of the league by trading with someone who seems out of it. What are your thoughts? Also, I am the commissioner, so always err on the side of caution.

ERIC FEINGOLD (Garden City, NY)

Brown isn’t having a great year. They haven’t been able to get him the ball downfield as often as they did last year. He’s averaging under 80 yards per game – 23 less than his average over the last three years. Two of their next four games are at Baltimore and at Jacksonville, and I don’t know if he’ll be a top-10 receiver on my board either of those weeks. Maybe, but there are a lot of good receivers out there. So this trade, whatever it might be, might not be as one-sided as it would have appeared to have been back in August. Eric Ebron might keep scoring, and James White might continue to be a huge part of New England’s passing game. So while there may be some eye rolling by some owners in your league, I think it could be possible to craft a win-win trade between these teams. It might be a trade you later regret. On a personal level, I don’t offer trades that I think are one-sided. The trade has to be balanced enough that some people prefer each side. If you offer a rip-off trade (I think) it just makes that owner think less of you.

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Question 12

Once Greg Zuerlein comes back I need to drop him or Dan Bailey. Which would you keep?

Steve Irwin (Vancouver, WA)

Zuerlein has scored 173 points in 15 games with Sean McVay coaching. That’s the best kicking production in NFL history. Maybe Bailey outperforms him; he looks like a top-10 kicker and comes with less injury risk. But I would roll with Legatron.

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