Week after week, the NFL shows what a fine line there is between winning and losing. We saw it especially in Rams-Packers, where a late fumble probably decided the game. And we see it in our lineups time and again, where seemingly good, informed decisions get ruined by injury, chance and quite frankly bad luck. Every game touchdowns get reversed by calls affected by inches or blades of grass. You hope it evens out, but you wonder sometimes.
Saw some discussion about Todd Gurley's decision to take a knee short of the end zone, affecting the point spread, the over-unders, and costing everyone who had Gurley another touchdown. I won't comment on the betting aspects. Fantasy-wise, if you have Gurley on your team, you really have nothing to complain about. You already owe him plenty.
Eagles and Jaguars in Merry Olde England: Jacksonville has a lot of problems suddenly. Certainly Blake Bortles isn't playing well. But he can't catch his own touchdown throws, so D.J. Chark could have helped him on one sequence where they had to settle for a chip-shot field goal. And he can't play defense, and the Jaguars aren't making many plays and giving up a decent amount of points. Will be interesting to see what they do to shake things up over the bye. Trade deadline Tuesday.
Ravens at Panthers: Carolina offense was a lot better than expected in this one. Cam Newton has been playing at a level close to when the Panthers went to the Super Bowl. So who knows. Nice games for Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore with Torrey Smith not around to be in his way. Dud game for Joe Flacco; the running backs scored and then Lamar Jackson threw a touchdown pass late to Hayden Hurst, probably dropped in most leagues by this point; certainly not started. Carolina's pretty good and they have a lot of favorable matchups coming up.
Jets at Bears: This was kind of a brutal game to watch. The Jets offense was predictably dismal against the Bears defense. The Bears offense was extra conservative, presumably knowing the Jets offense would struggle. Trey Burton hadn't caught a pass for a large portion of the game. Mitchell Trubisky's key pickups were almost all with his legs. A couple of nice plays involving Tarik Cohen, including a long touchdown. I know Jordan Howard saved fantasy teams who started him by scoring a late touchdown, but he's simply not as good, and the offense isn't as good, with him on the field. Cohen really ought to play more, with Howard primarily a late clock-killer.
Bucs at Bengals: Bucs benched Jameis Winston for Ryan Fitzpatrick, you probably wouldn't have expected that, well, ever. But Winston certainly earned it with his fourth interception, preventing those of us who started him from getting some garbage-time points, alas. But what can you say, Winston is just too mistake-prone. I saw him compared to Jay Cutler by somebody, which seems unfair to Cutler. Ronald Jones got hurt, great rookie season there. Helping Peyton Barber finish with better number than he otherwise might have. Good games as expected for Dalton, Mixon et al. Alas, C.J. Uzomah gave me a big zero. There was a shoulder injury involved, but very frustrating for those who started him. I share your pain (and considering I also started Trey Burton in the same lineup...). FitzMagic lives, bringing the Bengals all the way back to tie things up late. But any time the Tampa Bay defense has to go back on the field in a close game is probably going to be a loss.
Seahawks at Lions: Looks like I picked the wrong week to bench Marvin Jones. Seemed like a good idea at the time, so naturally he had his biggest game of the season. By far. In defeat, because the Seahawks have really put things together after a rough start. Do I need to start David Moore over Doug Baldwin? Kerryon Johnson worked out OK for you as a receiver, not a runner, with Detroit falling behind early. Nice game for Chris Carson, who's reaffirmed himself as the lead back until Seattle decides to give Penny a dozen carries next week because of how well he practiced.
Broncos at Kansas City: Big game as expected for Phillip Lindsay. But a bigger game, natch, for Kansas City, with it being Sammy Watkins' turn for a huge performance. No stopping this offense, certainly not in the AFC West. I'm mostly impressed by Lindsay, when you consider all the high picks the Broncos have used on running backs over the years, and their best backs are always late-round picks or undrafted guys, all the way back to Terrell Davis. Well I guess Clinton Portis was pretty great. Anyhoo, Lindsay was a guy everyone thought was too small. Instead he's just really good.
Washington at Giants: I thought Jets-Bears was brutal, but consider that I was going back and forth between that game and this one. New York's offense was exactly as godawful to watch as you might expect. Eli Manning sacked 7 times and it felt like 10. I believe there was exactly one good play in this game, the Adrian Peterson breakout touchdown run that iced the game (although lately the only touchdown drives Manning leads are when the game is out of reach anyway). It's time to pull the plug, so maybe that will finally happen. Don't be fooled by Evan Engram's nice final numbers; I realize and appreciate that those count, but virtually all of his catches came on the meaningless final drive.
Browns at Steelers: Chatter that Todd Haley might take the fall for Cleveland's under performing offense. Surely blame will be assigned to Hue Jackson at some point? Whatever, not my team. Workman like Steelers win, behind James Conner and Antonio Brown. For the Browns, yardage numbers nice for Nick Chubb. Just tough to put up good fantasy points as a running back if you're not involved as a receiver and your team doesn't get you enough scoring chances.
Colts at Raiders: Not a lot of defense played in this game. Nice for those of us who picked up Derek Carr on Philip Rivers' bye. Hey, if you can't brag when a long game works out...eh, well, you can't really brag, no one wants to hear it. Anyway, the negative is all the offense going to players nobody started like Mo Alie-Cox and Brandon LaFell of all people, less for T.Y. Hilton and Jordy Nelson. (And Chester Rogers and Martavis Bryant shut out, but for a Rogers two-pointer.) But big games for Luck, and Mack, and the various tight ends and Jalen Richard, another call that worked out. You take it and are happy about it and move on. Though I might start Carr again next week, against San Francisco.
49ers at Cardinals: I'm no expert. Coaching expert, anyway. But if I had Matt Breida, and he was hurting, I might have held him out a game to get a him healthier. That's why they have other running backs, right? It would be easier to say I'm wrong had Breida not carried 16 times for 42 yards against one of the league's worst run defenses. And San Francisco lost by 3 points. Nice comeback by Josh Rosen, and a rapport at last with Larry Fitzgerald. Keeping in mind San Francisco makes a lot of quarterbacks look good these days.
Packers at Rams: This was a great game, just sad that we got cheated out of what would probably have been a game-winning drive by Aaron Rodgers by a terrible mistake by Ty Montgomery, bringing a kick out of the end zone at the end of the game, losing a fumble, and taking the ball out of Rodgers' hands. I feel bad for the guy, just trying to make a play, but man, you have to know better there. Let Rodgers win the game. A little lower-scoring than expected (and with 2 Green Bay rushing scores, a disappointing outing for Rodgers, and then you have the Rams throwing 2 TDs to Josh Reynolds, invisible the last two weeks. Yes, if you had Gurley, it probably stung a little when Gurley could have scored in the final minute, but instead let himself be tackled at the 5-yard line, so the Rams could kneel the game away. Good game for Aaron Jones; even caught a couple of passes. Oh yeah, Rodgers and Jimmy Graham had a touchdown overturned by replay, kind of a ticky-tack call; the ball deemed a centimeter short of the goal line when Graham's butt hit the ground. Yeah, that's what instant replay is for.
Saints at Vikings: So Drew Brees threw for 120 yards in this game, and his only "touchdown pass" was essentially a forward handoff to Alvin Kamara, this play that's showing up a lot all of a sudden and is the chintziest scoring throw ever. There's your luck factor; Saints scored a defensive touchdown and nearly a second one and ran the ball a lot. Started TreQuan Smith over Marvin Jones, well up the list on bad fantasy decisions I've ever made. Vikings put up much better passing numbers, some of it of the garbage variety. Some spectacular catches by Thielen, Thomas, Diggs in this game. But a comparative dud from the shootout expected. Oh yeah, I used Brees and Rodgers in the Fantasy Index Blackout -- awesome.
Monday, Monday: So apparently LeSean McCoy has cleared the protocol and will be starting in this game. He'll no doubt limp off with an ankle injury or something during the game, but at least he'll be playing, and if Buffalo's best chance to do anything of any kind on offense. For New England, I need some points out of James White to save me from my poor Marvin Jones decision. Most likely this will be a dull, workmanlike Patriots win, say 24-13 or something.