The first big trade deadline deal has gone down, with the Texans acquiring Demaryius Thomas from the Broncos for a fourth-round pick. It's a good deal for the Broncos, with Thomas in a contract year and 30 years old; plus Denver has Courtland Sutton ready to step into the starting lineup. He's looked very good thus far.
For Houston, it makes sense they had to do something. They're in 1st place in the AFC South, and have already lost first Bruce Ellington and now Will Fuller to injury. Thomas gives them a talented veteran wideout across from DeAndre Hopkins, albeit one who's not as good as he used to be.
Over the last two seasons, Thomas has struggled with drops; he's failed to bring in 14 of the catchable balls thrown his way. That's the 3rd-worst drop rate in the league, among wide receivers who've seen at least 100 catchable passes thrown their way in that time frame.
| WIDE RECEIVER DROP RATES, 2016-2017 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Rec | Drop | Pct |
| Pierre Garcon, tms | 119 | 1 | .8% |
| Randall Cobb, G.B. | 126 | 2 | 1.6% |
| Doug Baldwin, Sea. | 169 | 3 | 1.7% |
| Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 216 | 4 | 1.8% |
| Robert Woods, tms | 107 | 2 | 1.8% |
| Jordy Nelson, G.B. | 150 | 3 | 2.0% |
| Stefon Diggs, Minn. | 148 | 3 | 2.0% |
| Michael Thomas, N.O. | 196 | 4 | 2.0% |
| Emmanuel Sanders, Den. | 126 | 3 | 2.3% |
| Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 207 | 5 | 2.4% |
| Jarvis Landry, Mia. | 206 | 5 | 2.4% |
| DeVante Parker, Mia. | 113 | 3 | 2.6% |
| Cole Beasley, Dall. | 111 | 3 | 2.6% |
| Alshon Jeffery, tms | 109 | 3 | 2.7% |
| Keenan Allen, LAC | 108 | 3 | 2.7% |
| DeSean Jackson, tms | 106 | 3 | 2.8% |
| Tyreek Hill, K.C. | 136 | 4 | 2.9% |
| Golden Tate, Det. | 183 | 6 | 3.2% |
| Adam Humphries, T.B. | 116 | 4 | 3.3% |
| Brandon LaFell, Cin. | 116 | 4 | 3.3% |
| Jamison Crowder, Wash. | 133 | 5 | 3.6% |
| Kenny Stills, Mia. | 100 | 4 | 3.8% |
| Mike Wallace, Balt. | 124 | 5 | 3.9% |
| Adam Thielen, Minn. | 160 | 7 | 4.2% |
| Kelvin Benjamin, tms | 111 | 5 | 4.3% |
| DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 174 | 8 | 4.4% |
| Brandin Cooks, tms | 143 | 7 | 4.7% |
| Rishard Matthews, Tenn. | 118 | 6 | 4.8% |
| Mike Evans, T.B. | 167 | 9 | 5.1% |
| T.Y. Hilton, Ind. | 148 | 8 | 5.1% |
| Mohamed Sanu, Atl. | 126 | 7 | 5.3% |
| Jermaine Kearse, tms | 106 | 6 | 5.4% |
| A.J. Green, Cin. | 141 | 8 | 5.4% |
| Robby Anderson, NYJ | 105 | 6 | 5.4% |
| Julio Jones, Atl. | 171 | 10 | 5.5% |
| Dez Bryant, Dall. | 119 | 7 | 5.6% |
| Amari Cooper, Oak. | 131 | 8 | 5.8% |
| Sterling Shepard, NYG | 124 | 8 | 6.1% |
| Ted Ginn, tms | 107 | 7 | 6.1% |
| Davante Adams, G.B. | 149 | 10 | 6.3% |
| Marvin Jones, Det. | 116 | 8 | 6.5% |
| Tyrell Williams, LAC | 112 | 8 | 6.7% |
| Odell Beckham, NYG | 126 | 10 | 7.4% |
| Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 173 | 14 | 7.5% |
| Marqise Lee, Jac. | 119 | 11 | 8.5% |
| Michael Crabtree, Oak. | 147 | 14 | 8.7% |
As the table makes clear, drops aren't everything. Look at some of the other players who show up unfavorably on this list: Odell Beckham, Davante Adams, Marvin Jones. Really good wide receivers, who maybe mix in some concentration drops at times.
Perhaps a bigger issue is that Thomas isn't much like Fuller at this stage of his career. He's averaging just 11.2 yards per catch, a career low. In his prime (2011-2014, say) he averaged over 14 yards per catch each year; 17.2 in 2011. That's more like Fuller, who's averaged over 15 yards per catch in each of the last two seasons.
But Thomas now looks like Houston's No. 2, as is Sutton in Denver. Will be interesting to see what the numbers look like for both the rest of the way (certainly Thomas is now working with a more talented quarterback).
--Andy Richardson