Thinking about the Titans versus Jaguars game, I wondered how favorably to slot Corey Davis. On the one hand, he's Tennessee's No. 1, and the team's only consistently involved wide receiver. On the other hand, he's facing a defense that tends to play really well against wide receivers.
The Jaguars haven't been the knockout defense everyone was expecting this season, but they're still pretty good against the pass in general and wide receivers specifically. They're No. 3 in pass defense, and wide receivers have caught a league-low 7 TDs against them on the season.
I thought I'd look at how No. 1 wideouts have fared against them this season. I tossed their games against New England and Dallas early in the season, when those teams didn't really have a No. 1 wideout (pre-Gordon and Edelman for New England, pre-Cooper for Dallas). I tossed Buffalo, because, Buffalo.
That left me with nine games against No. 1 wideouts, with only Robby Anderson of the Jets an iffy player. I included Davis, and Alshon Jeffery, and the other six are clear franchise guys (Beckham, Brown, Hopkins, Hill and Hilton twice).
| NO. 1 WIDE RECEIVERS VS JACKSONVILLE | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | No | Yds | TD |
| Beckham, NYG | 11 | 111 | 0 |
| Davis, Tenn. | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Anderson, NYJ | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Hill, K.C. | 4 | 61 | 0 |
| Hopkins, Hou. | 3 | 50 | 1 |
| Jeffery, Phil. | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Hilton, Ind. | 3 | 77 | 0 |
| Brown, Pitt. | 5 | 117 | 1 |
| Hilton, Ind. | 8 | 77 | 0 |
| Average | 5 | 64 | 0.2 |
Only two of those guys scored, and you'll recall Brown struggled for most of that game before catching a long touchdown late. Using the averages, Davis would seem to be headed for 5 catches for 64 yards, and about a 1-in-5 chance of getting in the end zone.
I have Davis in a couple of leagues. He'll probably be on my bench this week.
--Andy Richardson