So the thing about fantasy football is there is kind of a lot of luck involved. In general -- and I realize that there are exceptions, don't come at me -- I tend to believe that making the playoffs has a lot to do with skill; the better fantasy coaches have the advantage as far as getting there over the course of a long season. But in the playoffs, anything can happen. Maybe it's just me, but it already seems like that's been the case this year more than ever.
Kareem Hunt was released. Melvin Gordon and James Conner got hurt. Todd Gurley busted in Week 14. Saquon Barkley busted in Week 15. And on and on. If these things happened to the teams you were facing, you got lucky. If they happened to you, unlucky. When we win, do we spend time thinking about the other owner's bad luck? Not too much. So when we lose, and were unlucky with the likes of Luck (see what I did there), or Ebron, or Josh Gordon, or JuJu, I guess we need to just remember that there was a probably a playoff win somewhere along the way where it was the other guy whose luck ran out.
Texans at Jets, Browns at Broncos: A couple of quick items about these Saturday games. Quarterback play was very impressive in the Houston-Jets game. Sam Darnold was making plays on the run all game. Deshaun Watson kept making big plays despite being knocked around pretty good by the Jets defense and having no running game after Lamar Miller got his ankle rolled early on. Both of those guys helped by a couple of great wideouts making plays all over the field. Entertaining and well played game. ... Maybe Phillip Lindsay has worn down; smaller back. He struggled, and of course Case Keenum doesn't really threaten defense. Broncos mismanaged things down the streetch in a game they should have won. (Browns didn't impress with their decision-making either, but won, so Gregg Williams skates.)
Cardinals at Falcons: At least you got a touchdown out of David Johnson, and some serviceable PPR production out of Larry Fitzgerald. Not much else good from the Cardinals here. Big numbers for the Falcons -- not surprising they'd win, but surprising Arizona would just go in and get steamrolled. Not a good sign for the coaching staff. Pick Six for Deion Jones, he'd obviously been missed by Atlanta's defense all season. Big game for Tevin Coleman, as semi-expected. Austin Hooper was dealing with an injury in practice last week, and hasn't earned the benefit of the doubt like say T.Y. Hilton; hope you sat his zero.
Bucs at Ravens: Last-minute decision (they nearly always hurt me) to bench Gus Edwards, on the fear that Kenneth Dixon might continue to get an expanded role. Both backs started out slow, too. But gradually the Ravens' ground game wore the Bucs down, and Edwards went over 100 rushing yards with a touchdown. Bucs offense predictably struggled, although Mike Evans was fine (Peyton Barber did pretty well, that was kind of surprising).
Lions at Bills: Bills beat the Lions in exactly the kind of low-scoring dud you'd expect. Nice game for Robert Foster and serviceable for Josh Allen if you had to start him, which is also how I felt about Kenny Golladay, the lone productive, healthy Lion, who I had to start. Marcus Murphy hurt early so somebody named Keith Ford was the relatively valueless leading rusher. Less said about this game the better, but neither offense is good. Lions missed a field goal at the end that should have won it, not that it matters.
Packers at Bears: Bad matchup for Aaron Jones was enough reason to slide him behind as many options as you could. And then he got hurt early on, so hopefully you actually did bench him, or were facing him. Davante Adams did fine, other Packers did not (except for the other running back who couldn't be used, Jamaal Williams, so maybe Jones would have been OK but for the injury). Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears offense did a-OK, both running backs scored, Trey Burton had his first good game in an eternity). Bears division champs, Packers toast.
Raiders at Bengals: The Doug Martin recommendation didn't work out. Seemed to make sense, if you can look past him being Doug Martin. Bad as the Bengals defense is, it evidently isn't quite that bad. Huge performance from Joe Mixon, the best start for either team in this game. Touchdown for Tyler Boyd, Jordy Nelson kept his recent hot streak going, but a disappointing day for Jared Cook and the rest of Oakland's offense.
Cowboys at Colts: A motivated team versus one that knows it's going to the playoffs with a home win a week from now...that's a big difference, and I have to believe it was a factor in the Colts coming out and playing well and the Cowboys neither getting in the end zone nor playing particularly good defense. Disappointing game for Andrew Luck and Eric Ebron; Colts just didn't have to throw too much. A surprisingly big game by Marlon Mack -- so surprising I benched him, dang it -- as the Cowboys run defense didn't travel well. Ezekiel Elliott did OK as long as scoring isn't required.
Washington at Jaguars: Poor Jaguars. Defense dominated Washington's overmatched offense for most of the game. And still lost. Not much doing for either offense; a punt return touchdown by Dede Westbrook was the lone highlight. Washington's third tight end caught the only offensive touchdown. Washington still alive for a playoff spot, to the delight of no one.
Dolphins at Vikings: Dalvin Cook had been showing signs of breaking out the last couple of weeks. So kind of unsurprising that he had a big game -- including one amazing, electric touchdown run. So did most of the rest of Minnesota's offense (Adam Thielen excepted...) against a Dolphins team that simply shouldn't still be in playoff contention. Most notable is I don't understand what Adam Gase has against Kenyan Drake, who did win last week's game after all. Frank Gore left with an injury, but Drake still got only 1 carry, and Kalen Ballage had a long touchdown run. But whatever, you shouldn't have been starting any Dolphins, so just as well the only guy who had a good game was one nobody could have started. Vikings will enter the playoffs as a low seed but nobody will really want to face them in that first-round game.
Titans at Giants: Is this the year when the running backs who carried teams all year long collectively let us all down come playoff time? There have been a lot of examples, with injured guys like Melvin Gordon and James Conner, released Kareem Hunt, Todd Gurley last week, and now Saquon Barkley coming to mind. Entire Giants offense did absolutely nothing in this one; we knew the Titans defense was good, but kind of unexpected the way they completely shut New York down. Titans kind of controlled things on the ground on offense, and with defense. Not much good to say on this one, either for New York or the Titans passing game.
Seahawks at 49ers: San Francisco with yet another upset win at home. Next week they face the Bears, who just clinched...hmm. Nice game for Chris Carson and especially Doug Baldwin, but Seattle defense didn't apply the kind of shutdown game on San Francisco's offense that might have been anticipated. Nor did Denver a week ago. More running than passing, but a couple of instances of big offensive plays with defenders falling down (Garrett Celek). A very costly loss for Seattle, which could have clinched a playoff spot, but will now have to beat Kansas City next week.
Patriots at Steelers: Like many if not most NFL fans not devoted to a specific team, I rooted for the Patriots when they were a plucky underdog, and against them now that they're the evil empire. So I didn't mind seeing them lose. But I did mind that JuJu let me down (soclose to catching a late touchdown that was ripped away on a great defensive play), and that Josh Gordon and James White didn't do more, and that in general there wasn't way more scoring and way fewer penalty flags. Big game for Jaylen Samuels, who I cut in dynasty a little bit too soon. Obviously. Patriots now need help to get a bye in the AFC, to the dismay of Patriots fans and not many others.
Eagles at Rams: The veneer of excellence has been rubbed off the Rams. Maybe they really do miss Cooper Kupp more than anyone could have anticipated? Jared Goff certainly isn't as comfortable back there. It's one thing to struggle at Chicago against the Bears, quite another to do so in a home game against the Eagles as presently constituted. Eagles pretty much controlled this one for a large portion of the game, looking like the better team with their backup quarterback and motley crew of running backs. Eagles still alive, improbably enough.
Monday, Monday: So will the Rams losing inspire the Saints to a huge, dominant win? Or will the Panthers continue the weekend of top teams losing by springing the upset and staying in the crazy NFC mix for a playoff spot? I don't know. I do know that Drew Brees, Curtis Samuel and Ian Thomas are all very important to me today, and I'm sure others will be watching every play needing points (or not points) out of McCaffrey, Kamara, Ingram, Newton and Thomas. Big game for a lot of leagues. Game's in Carolina and it's been a week of upset. Panthers 27, Saints 26.