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Defensive averaging

Are Miami, Washington Week 16's surprise defenses?

When scouting defenses in December, I like to look at what teams have done so far. You take the numbers for the defense, and the numbers for the offense they’ll face, and try to make sense of what you think will happen in the games.

As a first step, we can average those numbers to provide an initial estimate of what to expect. If a defense is averaging only 2 sacks per game and is facing an offense that tends to give up 4 sacks, we can reasonably start the discussions for Week 16 at about 3 sacks.

If we follow that logic for sacks, interceptions and fumbles, the Bears, Rams and Broncos would project to have the best defenses in Week 16. That’s using standard scoring (2 points for takeaways, and 1 for each sack).

Those numbers aren’t worked, of course. The Bears probably will be playing without Eddie Jackson (pictured), whose scored half of their 6 defensive touchdowns. The Bucs aren’t turning over the ball like they did early in the season. Cam Newton isn’t playing for the Panthers anymore. And Josh Allen no longer is hemorrhaging sacks.

But it’s a first step. Using such a system, Miami, Washington and Green Bay stand out as the decent defenses most likely to be available on the waiver wire in your league.

Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Seattle and the Chargers stand out as the decent defenses that should underperform in Week 16.

DEFENSIVE AVERAGING FOR WEEK 16
DefenseOpponentSackIntFumPoints
ChicagoSan Francisco3.181.50.717.61
LA RamsArizona2.711.18.686.43
DenverOakland3.21.82.756.36
MiamiJacksonville2.431.14.716.14
DallasTampa Bay2.571.18.546.00
New EnglandBuffalo2.361.29.505.93
WashingtonTennessee3.00.86.575.86
MinnesotaDetroit3.00.86.545.79
IndianapolisNY Giants3.00.79.615.79
HoustonPhiladelphia2.68.79.755.75
Green BayNY Jets2.57.93.575.57
ClevelandCincinnati2.211.07.615.57
New OrleansPittsburgh2.321.00.615.54
Kansas CitySeattle3.14.68.505.50
Tampa BayDallas3.11.57.615.46
CincinnatiCleveland2.54.89.465.25
PhiladelphiaHouston3.11.68.365.18
NY JetsGreen Bay2.86.57.575.14
CarolinaAtlanta2.57.64.615.07
DetroitMinnesota2.57.57.614.93
JacksonvilleMiami2.61.71.394.82
ArizonaLA Rams2.54.68.464.82
SeattleKansas City2.18.82.504.82
TennesseeWashington2.64.71.324.71
AtlantaCarolina2.25.86.294.54
LA ChargersBaltimore2.18.75.434.54
NY GiantsIndianapolis1.461.00.434.32
BuffaloNew England1.79.75.504.29
PittsburghNew Orleans2.21.43.574.21
San FranciscoChicago2.29.57.394.21
BaltimoreLA Chargers2.43.54.294.07
OaklandDenver1.57.82.213.64

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index