Fantasy News

January 09, 2019

Revised playoff board

Will Michael Thomas outperform Mahomes?

Eight teams left, so I took 90 minutes and re-stacked the overall playoff board. That is, if you were walking into a draft today, who would you pick for the final three weeks of the playoffs?

There are various contests and rules, of course, so some assumptions are necessary. I went with the premise that four people are competing, and they’ll each draft a roster of a QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, flex, PK and Defense. Factoring in the flex, we’re talking about 36 players being chosen – 4 QB, 10 RB, 10 WR, 4 TE, 4 PK and 4 defense.

By definition, the last player at each position has no value. That is, if you didn’t bother selecting a quarterback until the last round, you’d be able to get Tom Brady or Andrew Luck – whomever you consider to be the 4th quarterback. Similarly, there’s no value with the 10th RB, 10th WR or 4th player at the other positions.

For this exercise, I am ordering the players by how much better they are than the worst-case scenario at there position. For standard scoring, this results in Patrick Mahomes being the No. 1 player overall – I’ve got him being worth 37 more points (over the next three weeks) than Tom Brady.

For PPR scoring, I’ve got Michael Thomas as the No. 1 player. He grades out as being 46 points better than the 10th-best wide receiver (Keenan Allen). Also in that format, I have Alvin Kamara as slightly more valuable than Mahomes. (In the charts below, standard scoring appears first – scroll down for PPR.)

In this process, key is deciding which teams you think will make it to the championship game – they’ll play in three games, giving them more playing time to compile stats. I went with the Saints (2.65 games) and Kansas City (2.50 games) as the teams most likely to make it to Atlanta. I’ve got the Eagles and Chargers as the teams most likely to lose this week (slotting each at 1.30 games). I’ve got the Cowboys (1.35) and Colts (1.40) slightly ahead of them, and I’ve got the Rams (1.70) and Patriots (1.80) as likely to play two games.

For the per-game numbers, for the four teams I think will lose this week, I stuck pretty close to what I think those teams will do this week. For the four other teams, I went with more of an average of this week plus what they would probably do in the conference championship games.

On charts, you’re seeing the 36 players who I think should be drafted, plus the best four other players at each position.

PLAYOFF REDRAFTER -- OVERALL BOARD (standard scoring)
Rk	Pos	Tm	Player	G	Pass	Rec	Run	Yds	TDP	TD	Pts
1	QB	KC	Mahomes	2.5	312	0	18	329	2.64	.16	72.3
2	QB	NO	Brees	2.7	304	0	2	306	2.45	.12	68.8
3	RB	NO	Kamara	2.7	0	43	58	101	.00	1.16	45.1
4	WR	NO	Thomas	2.7	0	102	0	102	.00	.78	39.4
5	WR	KC	T.Hill	2.5	0	79	8	86	.00	.72	32.4
6	TE	KC	Kelce	2.5	0	82	0	82	.00	.67	30.5
7	RB	KC	Dam.Williams	2.5	0	32	48	80	.00	.83	32.4
8	RB	LAR	Gurley	1.7	0	38	78	116	.00	1.20	31.9
9	RB	NO	Ingram	2.7	0	19	52	70	.00	.70	29.7
10	RB	DAL	Elliott	1.4	0	42	106	147	.00	.85	26.7
11	RB	KC	Ware	2.5	0	22	35	57	.00	.57	22.9
12	PK	NO	Lutz	2.7	0	0	0	0	.00	.00	22.5
13	RB	IND	Mack	1.4	0	6	101	107	.00	.81	21.8
14	WR	NE	Edelman	1.8	0	69	2	71	.00	.47	18.0
15	ST	KC	Kansas City	2.5	0	0	0	0	.00	.21	16.2
16	ST	NO	New Orleans	2.7	0	0	0	0	.00	.14	16.0
17	WR	NO	Ginn	2.7	0	45	0	45	.00	.36	17.6
18	PK	KC	Butker	2.5	0	0	0	0	.00	.00	19.6
19	RB	NE	Michel	1.8	0	5	65	70	.00	.51	18.1
20	WR	LAR	Woods	1.7	0	68	1	69	.00	.37	15.5
21	WR	LAR	Cooks	1.7	0	65	2	67	.00	.35	15.1
22	WR	IND	Hilton	1.4	0	80	0	80	.00	.43	14.8
23	RB	LAC	Gordon	1.3	0	26	69	95	.00	.59	17.0
24	WR	KC	Watkins	2.5	0	41	0	41	.00	.27	14.2
25	WR	DAL	Cooper	1.4	0	66	1	67	.00	.38	12.1
26	QB	LAR	Goff	1.7	269	0	6	276	1.79	.05	36.7
27	PK	LAR	Zuerlein	1.7	0	0	0	0	.00	.00	13.9
28	TE	IND	Ebron	1.4	0	47	0	47	.00	.59	11.5
29	ST	NE	New England	1.8	0	0	0	0	.00	.14	9.8
30	TE	NE	Gronkowski	1.8	0	43	0	43	.00	.32	11.3
31	QB	NE	Brady	1.8	252	0	1	254	1.69	.02	35.4
32	WR	LAR	Reynolds	1.7	0	43	0	43	.00	.34	10.7
33	ST	LAR	LA Rams	1.7	0	0	0	0	.00	.15	9.0
34	PK	NE	Gostkowski	1.8	0	0	0	0	.00	.00	13.0
35	TE	NO	Watson	2.7	0	25	0	25	.00	.25	10.5
36	RB	NE	White	1.8	0	28	19	47	.00	.43	13.2
--	PK	DAL	Maher	1.4	0	0	0	0	.00	.00	9.1
--	PK	IND	Vinatieri	1.4	0	0	0	0	.00	.00	8.5
--	PK	PHI	Elliott	1.3	0	0	0	0	.00	.00	7.8
--	PK	LAC	Badgley	1.3	0	0	0	0	.00	.00	7.5
--	QB	IND	Luck	1.4	272	0	18	290	1.93	.12	33.4
--	QB	DAL	Prescott	1.4	243	0	17	260	1.39	.41	29.5
--	QB	PHI	Foles	1.3	257	0	1	259	1.63	.01	25.5
--	QB	LAC	Rivers	1.3	236	0	1	237	1.47	.01	23.1
--	RB	NE	Burkhead	1.8	0	20	23	43	.00	.27	10.7
--	RB	LAC	Ekeler	1.3	0	21	30	51	.00	.24	8.6
--	RB	PHI	Sproles	1.3	0	23	21	44	.00	.33	8.3
--	RB	PHI	Smallwood	1.3	0	21	23	44	.00	.27	7.8
--	TE	PHI	Ertz	1.3	0	57	0	57	.00	.33	10.0
--	TE	LAR	Everett	1.7	0	27	0	27	.00	.24	7.0
--	TE	DAL	Jarwin	1.4	0	34	0	34	.00	.24	6.6
--	TE	LAR	Higbee	1.7	0	24	0	24	.00	.13	5.5
--	WR	LAC	Allen	1.3	0	64	0	64	.00	.28	10.5
--	WR	NO	T.Smith	2.7	0	26	0	26	.00	.18	9.7
--	WR	LAC	M.Williams	1.3	0	45	2	47	.00	.40	9.3
--	WR	KC	Robinson	2.5	0	22	0	22	.00	.23	9.0

PLAYOFF REDRAFTER -- OVERALL BOARD (PPR scoring)
Rk	Pos	Tm	Player	G	Pass	Rec	Run	Yds	TDP	TD	Pts
1	WR	NO	Thomas	2.7	0	102	0	102	.00	.78	63.4
2	RB	NO	Kamara	2.7	0	43	58	101	.00	1.16	58.3
3	QB	KC	Mahomes	2.5	312	0	18	329	2.64	.16	72.3
4	QB	NO	Brees	2.7	304	0	2	306	2.45	.12	68.8
5	TE	KC	Kelce	2.5	0	82	0	82	.00	.67	46.2
6	WR	KC	T.Hill	2.5	0	79	8	86	.00	.72	44.7
7	RB	KC	Dam.Williams	2.5	0	32	48	80	.00	.83	43.7
8	RB	LAR	Gurley	1.7	0	38	78	116	.00	1.20	38.7
9	RB	NO	Ingram	2.7	0	19	52	70	.00	.70	35.9
10	RB	DAL	Elliott	1.4	0	42	106	147	.00	.85	34.3
11	WR	NE	Edelman	1.8	0	69	2	71	.00	.47	28.7
12	RB	KC	Ware	2.5	0	22	35	57	.00	.57	28.7
13	PK	NO	Lutz	2.7	0	0	0	0	.00	.00	22.5
14	WR	NO	Ginn	2.7	0	45	0	45	.00	.36	26.7
15	ST	NO	New Orleans	2.7	0	0	0	0	.00	.14	17.3
16	ST	KC	Kansas City	2.5	0	0	0	0	.00	.21	16.2
17	PK	KC	Butker	2.5	0	0	0	0	.00	.00	19.6
18	WR	LAR	Woods	1.7	0	68	1	69	.00	.37	23.7
19	WR	LAR	Cooks	1.7	0	65	2	67	.00	.35	22.5
20	WR	IND	Hilton	1.4	0	80	0	80	.00	.43	22.2
21	WR	KC	Watkins	2.5	0	41	0	41	.00	.27	22.1
22	RB	IND	Mack	1.4	0	6	101	107	.00	.81	23.1
23	WR	DAL	Cooper	1.4	0	66	1	67	.00	.38	19.2
24	ST	NE	New England	1.8	0	0	0	0	.00	.14	9.8
25	RB	LAC	Gordon	1.3	0	26	69	95	.00	.59	20.5
26	QB	LAR	Goff	1.7	269	0	6	276	1.79	.05	36.7
27	PK	LAR	Zuerlein	1.7	0	0	0	0	.00	.00	13.9
28	RB	NE	Michel	1.8	0	5	65	70	.00	.51	19.3
29	TE	NE	Gronkowski	1.8	0	43	0	43	.00	.32	17.3
30	TE	PHI	Ertz	1.3	0	57	0	57	.00	.33	17.3
31	WR	LAC	Allen	1.3	0	64	0	64	.00	.28	17.4
32	QB	NE	Brady	1.8	252	0	1	254	1.69	.02	35.4
33	ST	LAR	LA Rams	1.7	0	0	0	0	.00	.15	8.2
34	PK	NE	Gostkowski	1.8	0	0	0	0	.00	.00	13.0
35	TE	IND	Ebron	1.4	0	47	0	47	.00	.59	17.2
36	RB	NE	White	1.8	0	28	19	47	.00	.43	19.1
--	PK	DAL	Maher	1.4	0	0	0	0	.00	.00	9.1
--	PK	IND	Vinatieri	1.4	0	0	0	0	.00	.00	8.5
--	PK	PHI	Elliott	1.3	0	0	0	0	.00	.00	7.8
--	PK	LAC	Badgley	1.3	0	0	0	0	.00	.00	7.5
--	QB	IND	Luck	1.4	272	0	18	290	1.93	.12	33.4
--	QB	DAL	Prescott	1.4	243	0	17	260	1.39	.41	29.5
--	QB	PHI	Foles	1.3	257	0	1	259	1.63	.01	25.5
--	QB	LAC	Rivers	1.3	236	0	1	237	1.47	.01	23.1
--	RB	NE	Burkhead	1.8	0	20	23	43	.00	.27	14.7
--	RB	LAC	Ekeler	1.3	0	21	30	51	.00	.24	11.6
--	RB	PHI	Sproles	1.3	0	23	21	44	.00	.33	11.4
--	RB	PHI	Smallwood	1.3	0	21	23	44	.00	.27	11.1
--	ST	DAL	Dallas	1.4	0	0	0	0	.00	.12	4.3
--	ST	LAC	LA Chargers	1.3	0	0	0	0	.00	.10	4.2
--	ST	IND	Indianapolis	1.4	0	0	0	0	.00	.07	2.8
--	ST	PHI	Philadelphia	1.3	0	0	0	0	.00	.07	2.4
--	TE	NO	Watson	2.7	0	25	0	25	.00	.25	16.4
--	TE	LAR	Everett	1.7	0	27	0	27	.00	.24	11.4
--	TE	DAL	Jarwin	1.4	0	34	0	34	.00	.24	10.8
--	TE	LAR	Higbee	1.7	0	24	0	24	.00	.13	8.9
--	WR	IND	Inman	1.4	0	44	0	44	.00	.33	14.5
--	WR	NO	T.Smith	2.7	0	26	0	26	.00	.18	14.3
--	WR	IND	Rogers	1.4	0	41	0	41	.00	.22	13.7
--	WR	PHI	Jeffery	1.3	0	49	0	49	.00	.31	13.5

—Ian Allan

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