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Factoid

KC-Colts

Can Indianapolis defense fluster Mahomes?

I will be interested to see how Patrick Mahomes performs today. Indianapolis is 10-1 in its last 11 games, and its defense has played a big role in that turnaround. I believe it’s a group that will force him to patiently work the ball down the field.

The Colts play a lot more zone than most teams, so they don’t give up many big plays. In 16 regular-season games, they allowed only 4 pass plays of 40-plus yards, 2nd-fewest in the league. This is not a defense that is likely to let Tyreek Hill get behind them for a 70-yard touchdown.

PASS DEFENSE / 40-YARD COMPLETIONS
Team40+
Buffalo2
Indianapolis4
Arizona5
Tampa Bay6
Philadelphia6
Jacksonville6
Green Bay7
Atlanta7
Dallas7
Pittsburgh7
Tennessee7
Baltimore7
Seattle8
Kansas City8
NY Giants8
Cleveland8
San Francisco9
Washington9
Denver9
LA Chargers9
New England9
Chicago9
Detroit10
Minnesota10
Miami11
NY Jets11
Carolina12
Cincinnati13
Houston13
New Orleans14
LA Rams14
Oakland15

At the same time, the Colts aren’t likely to put a lot of pressure on Mahomes, and the trade-off of not giving up many long balls is a willingness to concede more short throws underneath. Opponents completed 71 percent of their passes against Indianapolis in the regular season. Only Tampa Bay gave up a higher completion percentage.

I would expect, therefore, for Mahomes to connect on lots of underneath throws, especially to Travis Kelce and his running backs. With the way Kansas City moves it and with how Indianapolis plays defense, I expect Kelce will catch 8-plus passes, decisively outperforming all other tight ends this week.

PASS DEFENSE / COMPLETION PERCENTAGE
TeamPct
Baltimore58.4%
New England61.2%
Chicago61.3%
Oakland62.3%
Jacksonville62.5%
Minnesota62.6%
Cleveland62.8%
NY Jets63.1%
Tennessee63.2%
San Francisco63.5%
Buffalo63.6%
Green Bay63.8%
Pittsburgh64.0%
LA Chargers64.1%
Kansas City64.2%
Denver64.3%
NY Giants64.6%
Houston64.8%
Seattle65.0%
Detroit65.1%
LA Rams65.1%
Miami65.9%
Cincinnati66.6%
Philadelphia66.6%
Carolina66.7%
New Orleans67.0%
Washington67.4%
Arizona67.6%
Dallas67.7%
Atlanta68.0%
Indianapolis70.8%
Tampa Bay72.5%

For overall passing production, Indianapolis allowed an average of 238 passing yards per game in the regular season, with 21 TDs. Using standard fantasy scoring, only seven defenses gave up less passing production.

PASS DEFENSE / FANTASY PRODUCTION
TeamYardsTDIntPts
Minnesota3,1401512217.0
Jacksonville3,1131711223.7
Buffalo2,8672216231.4
Arizona3,262217247.1
Baltimore3,3602112252.0
Tennessee3,4712111257.6
Chicago3,5152227263.8
Indianapolis3,8052115274.3
LA Chargers3,6462313274.3
Dallas3,755229275.8
Cleveland4,1252117290.3
Pittsburgh3,697278292.9
Detroit3,599297296.0
Seattle3,8422612296.1
Washington3,7942715297.7
NY Giants4,0442416298.2
Denver3,9292617300.5
Philadelphia4,3082210303.4
Green Bay3,752307307.6
LA Rams3,7803118313.0
New England3,9432918313.2
NY Jets4,0652913319.3
Carolina3,8473213320.4
Houston4,1672815320.4
Miami3,9323121320.6
San Francisco3,732352326.6
New Orleans4,3023012335.1
Oakland3,8533614336.7
Kansas City4,3743015338.7
Atlanta4,1533315339.7
Tampa Bay4,151349343.6
Cincinnati4,4143212348.7

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index