I will be interested to see how Patrick Mahomes performs today. Indianapolis is 10-1 in its last 11 games, and its defense has played a big role in that turnaround. I believe it’s a group that will force him to patiently work the ball down the field.
The Colts play a lot more zone than most teams, so they don’t give up many big plays. In 16 regular-season games, they allowed only 4 pass plays of 40-plus yards, 2nd-fewest in the league. This is not a defense that is likely to let Tyreek Hill get behind them for a 70-yard touchdown.
PASS DEFENSE / 40-YARD COMPLETIONS | |
---|---|
Team | 40+ |
Buffalo | 2 |
Indianapolis | 4 |
Arizona | 5 |
Tampa Bay | 6 |
Philadelphia | 6 |
Jacksonville | 6 |
Green Bay | 7 |
Atlanta | 7 |
Dallas | 7 |
Pittsburgh | 7 |
Tennessee | 7 |
Baltimore | 7 |
Seattle | 8 |
Kansas City | 8 |
NY Giants | 8 |
Cleveland | 8 |
San Francisco | 9 |
Washington | 9 |
Denver | 9 |
LA Chargers | 9 |
New England | 9 |
Chicago | 9 |
Detroit | 10 |
Minnesota | 10 |
Miami | 11 |
NY Jets | 11 |
Carolina | 12 |
Cincinnati | 13 |
Houston | 13 |
New Orleans | 14 |
LA Rams | 14 |
Oakland | 15 |
At the same time, the Colts aren’t likely to put a lot of pressure on Mahomes, and the trade-off of not giving up many long balls is a willingness to concede more short throws underneath. Opponents completed 71 percent of their passes against Indianapolis in the regular season. Only Tampa Bay gave up a higher completion percentage.
I would expect, therefore, for Mahomes to connect on lots of underneath throws, especially to Travis Kelce and his running backs. With the way Kansas City moves it and with how Indianapolis plays defense, I expect Kelce will catch 8-plus passes, decisively outperforming all other tight ends this week.
PASS DEFENSE / COMPLETION PERCENTAGE | |
---|---|
Team | Pct |
Baltimore | 58.4% |
New England | 61.2% |
Chicago | 61.3% |
Oakland | 62.3% |
Jacksonville | 62.5% |
Minnesota | 62.6% |
Cleveland | 62.8% |
NY Jets | 63.1% |
Tennessee | 63.2% |
San Francisco | 63.5% |
Buffalo | 63.6% |
Green Bay | 63.8% |
Pittsburgh | 64.0% |
LA Chargers | 64.1% |
Kansas City | 64.2% |
Denver | 64.3% |
NY Giants | 64.6% |
Houston | 64.8% |
Seattle | 65.0% |
Detroit | 65.1% |
LA Rams | 65.1% |
Miami | 65.9% |
Cincinnati | 66.6% |
Philadelphia | 66.6% |
Carolina | 66.7% |
New Orleans | 67.0% |
Washington | 67.4% |
Arizona | 67.6% |
Dallas | 67.7% |
Atlanta | 68.0% |
Indianapolis | 70.8% |
Tampa Bay | 72.5% |
For overall passing production, Indianapolis allowed an average of 238 passing yards per game in the regular season, with 21 TDs. Using standard fantasy scoring, only seven defenses gave up less passing production.
PASS DEFENSE / FANTASY PRODUCTION | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TD | Int | Pts |
Minnesota | 3,140 | 15 | 12 | 217.0 |
Jacksonville | 3,113 | 17 | 11 | 223.7 |
Buffalo | 2,867 | 22 | 16 | 231.4 |
Arizona | 3,262 | 21 | 7 | 247.1 |
Baltimore | 3,360 | 21 | 12 | 252.0 |
Tennessee | 3,471 | 21 | 11 | 257.6 |
Chicago | 3,515 | 22 | 27 | 263.8 |
Indianapolis | 3,805 | 21 | 15 | 274.3 |
LA Chargers | 3,646 | 23 | 13 | 274.3 |
Dallas | 3,755 | 22 | 9 | 275.8 |
Cleveland | 4,125 | 21 | 17 | 290.3 |
Pittsburgh | 3,697 | 27 | 8 | 292.9 |
Detroit | 3,599 | 29 | 7 | 296.0 |
Seattle | 3,842 | 26 | 12 | 296.1 |
Washington | 3,794 | 27 | 15 | 297.7 |
NY Giants | 4,044 | 24 | 16 | 298.2 |
Denver | 3,929 | 26 | 17 | 300.5 |
Philadelphia | 4,308 | 22 | 10 | 303.4 |
Green Bay | 3,752 | 30 | 7 | 307.6 |
LA Rams | 3,780 | 31 | 18 | 313.0 |
New England | 3,943 | 29 | 18 | 313.2 |
NY Jets | 4,065 | 29 | 13 | 319.3 |
Carolina | 3,847 | 32 | 13 | 320.4 |
Houston | 4,167 | 28 | 15 | 320.4 |
Miami | 3,932 | 31 | 21 | 320.6 |
San Francisco | 3,732 | 35 | 2 | 326.6 |
New Orleans | 4,302 | 30 | 12 | 335.1 |
Oakland | 3,853 | 36 | 14 | 336.7 |
Kansas City | 4,374 | 30 | 15 | 338.7 |
Atlanta | 4,153 | 33 | 15 | 339.7 |
Tampa Bay | 4,151 | 34 | 9 | 343.6 |
Cincinnati | 4,414 | 32 | 12 | 348.7 |
—Ian Allan