I love looking at Super Bowl prop bets, even if it's just to laugh at the goofy ones. (Length of National Anthem?) I am not a professional gambler, so take the following predictions with a grain of salt. If these can help you win your local party pool, though, you're welcome. Remember, Tails never fails. Except when it does. The fewer dumb-luck bets the better, that's what I say.
I stay well away from cross-sport prop bets, having not watched a full NBA game in about 20 years, and also the halftime show. And if you're seriously looking at wagers that require you to count the number of dogs or horses in a Budweiser commercial, at the risk of being all judge-y, you may have a problem. But hey, if that's the kind of thing you enjoy investing money in, good luck!
In general, I'm focusing on bets that look promising based on projections about the game I made earlier in the week.
I found online lists of Super Bowl prop bets at Bovada, Oddsshark and also BetDSI Sportsbook. Here are my favorites.
FAVORITE SUPER BOWL PROP BETS
Total passing yards for Jared Goff?
UNDER 289.5. I've got him around 270-280, and I think that's his best-case scenario. If the Rams win, it will be with the ground game leading the way. If they lose, Goff will manage some garbage production, but I still think he'll struggle and finish under 290.
Total interceptions for Tom Brady? (And same bet for Jared Goff.)
OVER 0.5. The Rams and Patriots both finished top-5 in interceptions this year, with 18 apiece. I'm fairly confident each player will throw 1; I guess I'm more confident that Goff will. But both look like good bets.
(There's a "longest completion" bet that I'm tempted to take the under on; it's 37.5 for Brady and 38.5 for Goff. I think betting against Brady here is a decent bet, though I'll pass -- too flukey for my blood.)
Total rushing yards for C.J. Anderson?
UNDER 49.5. I like Anderson, but he's taking a back seat to Gurley in this game, and I don't think the Rams are going to have a ton of success running the ball, period. Similarly...
Total rushing yards for Todd Gurley?
UNDER 70.5. My projections had Gurley at 61 and Anderson at 40.
Total receiving yards for Todd Gurley?
OVER 30.5. I projected him at 39. He averaged over 41 per game during the season. Similarly...
Total receptions for Todd Gurley?
OVER 3.5. The only way you're nervous about this one is if you think he spends large chunks of the game on the bench like last week. During the season he caught 4-plus passes in seven of his 14 games, 3 in six others. Rams will need Gurley to have a big game to compete in this one, and I think it's more likely to come on receptions.
Total rushing yards for James White?
UNDER 19.5. New England put up huge rushing numbers in each of their first two playoff games, and White rushed for zero and 23. I'm very comfortable he'll be under 20 rushing yards, with two other viable backs to carry it.
Total receptions for Robert Woods?
OVER 5.5. Woods has caught 6 passes in five of his last six games, including both playoff games.
Longest reception by Gerald Everett?
OVER 12.5. This is a sneaky-appealing bet. Everett averaged just 2 catches per game during the season, but he's the guy they like to sneak out for longer receptions. He had long receptions (different games, all) of 40, 39 (last week), 22, 20, 20, 17 and 13. If he catches 1 pass, and I think he will, really good chance it goes for at least 13 yards.
Total receptions for Julian Edelman?
OVER 7. The Patriots Super Bowl preview elsewhere on this page contains a table with Edelman's last dozen playoff games. In his last 11, he's caught more than 7 passes eight times. Good enough for me.
(In general, I'm staying away from James White/Rex Burkhead questions; too much uncertainty as to how much Burkhead plays.)
Total players to attempt a pass?
OVER 2.5. Brady and Goff will, that's 2. I think there's an excellent chance of some sort of trick play where the Rams throw a pass on a fake punt or fake field goal (Johnny Hekker has attempted 5 this season, including the key one last week; granted, New England will be watching for it), so that would get us to the over. I think Sean McVay is aware he'll need some trickery at some point in this game. Even without that, Julian Edelman attempted 2 passes this season, so he's a possibility. I could see Tom Brady lobbying for a chance to erase the memory of him dropping an easy pass last year.
Will there be a fake punt or field goal?
I'm a little nervous about doubling down on this one, but if I'm a betting on a non-quarterback attempting a pass, I'm guessing strongly that a punter or holder will throw one. Again, New England will be watching for a fake. Doesn't mean it won't happen at some point.
Will any player be called for roughing the passer?
YES. Tom Brady is playing in this game, right? I kid. But that doesn't hurt. Statistically, roughing the passer penalties were called on average in about 45 percent of NFL games last year, and I suspect that number goes up in high-profile games involving marquee quarterbacks.
Will either team make a field goal of 50 yards or more?
NO. Both Greg Zuerlein and Stephen Gostkowski are capable of it, certainly, Zuerlein hit from 57 just two weeks ago. But it doesn't happen as often as you might think: the two kickers combined for 6 kicks of 50-plus yards in 27 games this year, so about 25 percent of the time. I'll think about this one a little (pretty flukey), but odds are against it.
Total combined touchdowns?
UNDER 7.5. The over/under for this game is 57. If that's accurate, it's reasonable to expect around 6 TDs. If you think it will be 8 TDs, you're saying one team will score 5 TDs, or that both will score 4. I definitely don't think the Rams are scoring more than 3, and I don't expect New England to score 5.
Will a defensive player score an offensive touchdown?
NO. I'm not sure who they're trying to sucker into making this bet (granted, depending where you bet you have to wager about $1,000 to win $100, which isn't really smart). I went back 5 years and couldn't find an example of a New England defender scoring an offensive touchdown. No Los Angeles defender has done so since Sean McVay took over. Neither team seems particularly likely to put any defensive players in the backfield for a touchdown, though I suppose you can never be 100 percent certain. But pretty close.
(As an aside, there are a lot of bets asking if players will break existing Super Bowl records. On some, it's just too expensive to bet "No." I don't think either quarterback will break the record (from last year) of 505 passing yards, and I can just about guarantee that no player will break the Super Bowl record of 4 sacks -- just, absolutely not. But betting $4,000 to win $100 isn't good business.)
How many New England Patriots players will have a reception?
OVER 7. In each of New England's two playoff games, eight players were targeted. In one of those, Patterson didn't catch one. Nine different players caught passes in the two games (Michel didn't catch one in one, Develin didn't in another). I'm pretty comfortable 8 guys will catch one (and the other option to bet is UNDER 7, so if it's exactly 7, you should at least push. Unless I'm reading the bet wrong, and someone can let me know if so.)
Number of different Patriots players to score points?
OVER 3.5. Gostkowski is one. I think there will be a rushing touchdown; doesn't matter which running back. If Tom Brady throws 2 TDs, which seems likely, I'm golden (as long as 1 isn't to the running back who ran one in). A Brady sneak also seems possible.
Will (Brady, Gronkowski, Belichick) announce retirement after the game?
I think Gronk might retire in the offseason. But he or either of the other guys (who won't) wouldn't announce it during the broadcast -- way more attention if you drag out the will he or won't he a few weeks and announce it in late February or March. Nobody is announcing their retirement on Sunday.
How many times will the broadcast mention Sean McVay's age?
OVER 1.5. Seems like free money. They might mention it twice before halftime; maybe before kickoff.
And that's it for ones that looked good to me. Feel free to weigh in with your own favorites below. Happy betting.