Here comes Kyler Murray. He says he’s fully committed to being a quarterback, and I think that will translate into him being a top-5 pick in the draft.
Murray is tiny. That’s the downside. I think he’ll measure at about 5-foot-9 or 5-foot-10, and about 195 pounds. That’s 2-3 inches shorter than Drew Brees, and 20 pounds lighter than Russell Wilson or Baker Mayfield.
But Murray was insanely productive at Oklahoma. Lots of yards passing, lots of yards rushing, and lots of touchdowns.
Murray finished with 5,362 pass-run yards last year. That’s more than any of the quarterbacks chosen in the first round in the last 10 years (in their final season of college ball).
| QUARTERBACKS WITH 4,500 YARDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pass | Run | Total |
| 2019 | Kyler Murray | 4,361 | 1,001 | 5,362 |
| 2017 | Patrick Mahomes | 5,052 | 285 | 5,337 |
| 2018 | Lamar Jackson | 3,660 | 1,601 | 5,261 |
| 2015 | Marcus Mariota | 4,454 | 770 | 5,224 |
| 2017 | Deshaun Watson | 4,593 | 629 | 5,222 |
| 2012 | Robert Griffin III | 4,293 | 699 | 4,992 |
| 2018 | Baker Mayfield | 4,627 | 311 | 4,938 |
| 2014 | Johnny Manziel | 4,114 | 759 | 4,873 |
| 2016 | Jared Goff | 4,719 | -8 | 4,711 |
| 2012 | Brandon Weeden | 4,727 | -102 | 4,625 |
Murray threw 42 TDs last year and also ran for 12 scores. Among quarterbacks chosen in the first round in the last 10 years, only Marcus Mariota put up more total touchdowns in his final college season.
| QUARTERBACKS WITH 45 TOUCHDOWNS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | TDP | TDR | Total |
| 2015 | Marcus Mariota | 42 | 15 | 57 |
| 2019 | Kyler Murray | 42 | 12 | 54 |
| 2017 | Patrick Mahomes | 41 | 12 | 53 |
| 2017 | Deshaun Watson | 41 | 9 | 50 |
| 2011 | Cam Newton | 30 | 20 | 50 |
| 2018 | Baker Mayfield | 43 | 5 | 48 |
| 2012 | Robert Griffin III | 37 | 10 | 47 |
| 2014 | Johnny Manziel | 37 | 9 | 46 |
| 2018 | Lamar Jackson | 27 | 18 | 45 |
Murray’s production was helped along by Oklahoma’s offense, and also the conference they played in. It’s a wide-open game in the Big 12. But he was accurate, showing the ability to put the ball in tighter windows and the ability to make downfield passes. He averaged 16.8 yards per completion – best among quarterbacks who’ve been selected in the first round in recent years.
| OVER 14 YARDS PER COMPLETION | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Yd/Comp |
| 2019 | Kyler Murray | 16.77 |
| 2018 | Baker Mayfield | 16.24 |
| 2011 | Cam Newton | 15.43 |
| 2012 | Robert Griffin III | 14.75 |
| 2009 | Matthew Stafford | 14.72 |
| 2015 | Marcus Mariota | 14.65 |
| 2010 | Sam Bradford | 14.41 |
| 2018 | Lamar Jackson | 14.41 |
Murray completed 69 percent of his passes, so if you total up the yards and throws, it works out to 11.6 yards per pass attempt. That’s the best of any of the quarterbacks we’ve seen recently.
| OVER 9 YARDS PER ATTEMPT | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Avg |
| 2019 | Kyler Murray | 11.57 |
| 2018 | Baker Mayfield | 11.45 |
| 2012 | Robert Griffin III | 10.57 |
| 2011 | Cam Newton | 10.19 |
| 2015 | Marcus Mariota | 10.01 |
| 2014 | Johnny Manziel | 9.59 |
| 2014 | Blake Bortles | 9.37 |
| 2014 | Teddy Bridgewater | 9.30 |
| 2010 | Tim Tebow | 9.22 |
| 2009 | Matthew Stafford | 9.03 |
Murray set an NCAA record for passer rating. The college passer rating is slightly different (disclaimer: I’m not sure how they calculate it). If we use the pro passer rating system, it works out to 137.2. That’s the 2nd-best I’ve seen for a college quarterback coming out. (Just behind Mayfield from last year).
| PASSER RATING OVER 120 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rating |
| 2018 | Baker Mayfield | 137.9 |
| 2019 | Kyler Murray | 137.2 |
| 2012 | Robert Griffin III | 130.1 |
| 2015 | Marcus Mariota | 128.4 |
| 2011 | Cam Newton | 124.9 |
| 2014 | Teddy Bridgewater | 120.3 |
Size is a little worrying, of course, but he passes the smell test. He’s slightly smaller than Mayfield, but he’s way more athletic, with Michael Vick quickness when he’s running around. Mayfield was able to have some instant success as a rookie, and that’s reassuring.
With quarterback being such a coveted position, I would think that some team will wind up selecting Murray early. The three teams selecting first – Cardinals, 49ers, Jets – all have young quarterbacks in place, so I would expect they’ll be entertaining offers to trade down.
—Ian Allan