A reminder that there's no offseason comes with a fairly significant fantasy story just a week after the conclusion of the NFL season. The Cleveland Browns signed Kareem Hunt today, adding 2017's leading rusher to what seems to be one of the league's up-and-coming teams. So what does this mean?
On the one hand, it's surprising, given that Cleveland had one of the league's very best rookie running backs a year ago in Nick Chubb. They also have Duke Johnson under contract. Not a backfield desperately in need of a young talent infusion.
But perhaps we should have seen it coming, in that Cleveland decision-maker John Dorsey was in Kansas City when Hunt was drafted. He obviously knows the player as well as any other personnel guy around the league. Outside of Kansas City, which of course released Hunt at the end of last season, no one knows him better.
Hunt was waived after video of an incident from last February was released; in it he can be seen shoving an kicking a woman in an altercation. The league has placed him on the commissioner's exempt list and continues to investigate at its typical glacial pace. When they're done, he'll no doubt be formally suspended, with 6 games considered the minimum. The league is looking into at least two other incidents involving Hunt; it won't necessarily only be the video evidence that factors into his suspension.
"There were two important factors: one is that Kareem took full responsibility for his egregious actions and showed true remorse and secondly, just as importantly, he is undergoing and is committed to necessary professional treatment and a plan that has been clearly laid out."
I saw a report somewhere which said this signing doesn't impact Nick Chubb, which is of course ridiculous. When the NFL's leading rusher from just a season ago is signed to your team and he plays the same position, it certainly has the potential to affect you. And it definitely impacts Duke Johnson, who the Browns have basically underutilized for as long as he's been in the league.
But Chubb is a talented guy coming off a great rookie season, and Cleveland drafted him at the top of the second round last April. He's the guy, and he's not going to have to worry about Hunt getting snaps for a minimum of six games and probably a whole lot longer. Eight games, 10 games -- those seem to be on the table. If Chubb keeps on doing his thing, he should be able to happily keep on doing it in 2019. Hunt, eventually, gets worked in as a change of pace or maybe in passing situations. And then if both guys are healthy after the season -- you can't have too many running backs in today's NFL -- Cleveland flips him to another team for a lot more than their current investment, the biggest element of which is the PR hit.
Picking through last year's numbers, Hunt actually wasn't a standout receiver, at least in terms of efficiency. Among the 55 running backs who saw at least 20 targets, he was in the bottom half in percentage of those passes caught. Better than Chubb, but not by a lot. So not a given that the team looks to get Chubb off the field in those situations, once these guys end up active at the same time. Neither is as good as Duke Johnson in that regard.
| RUNNING BACK RECEIVING, 2018 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Team | Tgt | Rec | % | Yds | Avg |
| Damien Williams | KAN | 24 | 23 | 95.8% | 160 | 7.0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | PIT | 29 | 26 | 89.7% | 199 | 7.7 |
| Dion Lewis | TEN | 67 | 59 | 88.1% | 400 | 6.8 |
| Matt Breida | SFO | 31 | 27 | 87.1% | 261 | 9.7 |
| Spencer Ware | KAN | 23 | 20 | 87.0% | 224 | 11.2 |
| Christian McCaffrey | CAR | 124 | 107 | 86.3% | 867 | 8.1 |
| Latavius Murray | MIN | 26 | 22 | 84.6% | 141 | 6.4 |
| Leonard Fournette | JAX | 26 | 22 | 84.6% | 185 | 8.4 |
| Jalen Richard | OAK | 81 | 68 | 84.0% | 607 | 8.9 |
| Chris Carson | SEA | 24 | 20 | 83.3% | 163 | 8.2 |
| Kerryon Johnson | DET | 39 | 32 | 82.1% | 213 | 6.7 |
| Dalvin Cook | MIN | 49 | 40 | 81.6% | 305 | 7.6 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | DAL | 95 | 77 | 81.1% | 567 | 7.4 |
| Mike Davis | SEA | 42 | 34 | 81.0% | 214 | 6.3 |
| Wendell Smallwood | PHI | 35 | 28 | 80.0% | 230 | 8.2 |
| Joe Mixon | CIN | 55 | 43 | 78.2% | 296 | 6.9 |
| Tarik Cohen | CHI | 91 | 71 | 78.0% | 725 | 10.2 |
| Nyheim Hines | IND | 81 | 63 | 77.8% | 425 | 6.7 |
| Mark Ingram | NOR | 27 | 21 | 77.8% | 170 | 8.1 |
| James Conner | PIT | 71 | 55 | 77.5% | 497 | 9.0 |
| Alvin Kamara | NOR | 105 | 81 | 77.1% | 709 | 8.8 |
| Adrian Peterson | WAS | 26 | 20 | 76.9% | 208 | 10.4 |
| Jordan Howard | CHI | 26 | 20 | 76.9% | 145 | 7.3 |
| Melvin Gordon | LAC | 66 | 50 | 75.8% | 490 | 9.8 |
| Duke Johnson | CLE | 62 | 47 | 75.8% | 429 | 9.1 |
| Saquon Barkley | NYG | 121 | 91 | 75.2% | 721 | 7.9 |
| Isaiah Crowell | NYJ | 28 | 21 | 75.0% | 152 | 7.2 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | NWE | 28 | 21 | 75.0% | 247 | 11.8 |
| Doug Martin | OAK | 24 | 18 | 75.0% | 116 | 6.4 |
| Marshawn Lynch | OAK | 20 | 15 | 75.0% | 84 | 5.6 |
| Phillip Lindsay | DEN | 47 | 35 | 74.5% | 241 | 6.9 |
| Aaron Jones | GNB | 35 | 26 | 74.3% | 206 | 7.9 |
| Kareem Hunt | KAN | 35 | 26 | 74.3% | 378 | 14.5 |
| Alfred Blue | HOU | 27 | 20 | 74.1% | 154 | 7.7 |
| LeSean McCoy | BUF | 46 | 34 | 73.9% | 238 | 7.0 |
| Austin Ekeler | LAC | 53 | 39 | 73.6% | 404 | 10.4 |
| Giovani Bernard | CIN | 48 | 35 | 72.9% | 218 | 6.2 |
| Todd Gurley | LAR | 81 | 59 | 72.8% | 580 | 9.8 |
| Tevin Coleman | ATL | 44 | 32 | 72.7% | 276 | 8.6 |
| Kenyan Drake | MIA | 73 | 53 | 72.6% | 477 | 9.0 |
| Lamar Miller | HOU | 35 | 25 | 71.4% | 163 | 6.5 |
| Alex Collins | BAL | 21 | 15 | 71.4% | 105 | 7.0 |
| James White | NWE | 123 | 87 | 70.7% | 751 | 8.6 |
| T.J. Yeldon | JAX | 78 | 55 | 70.5% | 487 | 8.9 |
| Royce Freeman | DEN | 20 | 14 | 70.0% | 72 | 5.1 |
| Rex Burkhead | NWE | 20 | 14 | 70.0% | 131 | 9.4 |
| Nick Chubb | CLE | 29 | 20 | 69.0% | 149 | 7.5 |
| Peyton Barber | TAM | 29 | 20 | 69.0% | 92 | 4.6 |
| Jamaal Williams | GNB | 41 | 27 | 65.9% | 210 | 7.8 |
| David Johnson | ARI | 76 | 50 | 65.8% | 446 | 8.9 |
| Marlon Mack | IND | 26 | 17 | 65.4% | 103 | 6.1 |
| Darren Sproles | PHI | 23 | 15 | 65.2% | 160 | 10.7 |
| Wayne Gallman | NYG | 22 | 14 | 63.6% | 89 | 6.4 |
| Chris Ivory | BUF | 21 | 13 | 61.9% | 205 | 15.8 |
| Elijah McGuire | NYJ | 31 | 19 | 61.3% | 193 | 10.2 |
Atop the list is Hunt's old teammate, Damien Williams. No question Hunt has a lot of after the catch ability; he averaged 14.5 yards per catch, a lot better than Chubb (7.5). So maybe. Still, a long way from being certain what Hunt's role will be, once he's eligible to play.
It's a negative for Chubb, long-term, but I don't think anyone should be scared away from selecting him in early drafts for the 2019 season. And if they are, well, I'll take Chubb at the value he'll come at. Might see whether his dynasty owners are nervous, too.
--Andy Richardson