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Factoid

Josh Rosen

Poor rookie season makes Murray speculation easy

The Cardinals are on the clock with the top pick in the NFL Draft, and having hired Kliff Kingsbury as head coach, there's some dot-connecting going on these days. Kyler Murray is planning to embark on an NFL career, and Kingsbury said last fall he'd select Murray No. 1 overall in the NFL Draft. Whaddya know: He has his chance.

Kingsbury and the Cardinals have dismissed such speculation ("Josh is our guy," said Kingsbury), and there's no reason to hold Kingsbury to his words at a time where he was just talking up a college player -- with no idea he'd potentially be the guy in the position to draft him. But the talk will no doubt continue anyway. In part because incumbent quarterback Josh Rosen, selected 10th overall just last year, didn't do anything to dispel it as a rookie.

Rosen struggled, and while that's generally true of rookie quarterbacks, the other four first-rounders (Mayfield, Darnold, Allen and Jackson) all flashed exciting potential. Rosen, working behind maybe the league's worst offensive line in its worst offense, did not.

The table below shows the rookie passing numbers of all first round quarterbacks since 2000. I cropped it at quarterbacks who passed for at least 1,000 yards as rookies -- no need to include guys who rode the bench for all of their first seasons. Debatable what the most important quarterback stat is, but Rosen didn't grade out particularly well in any of them. I chose yards per attempt, telling because it's better to see quarterbacks attempting to push the ball downfield rather than settling for only safe, short completions. And the success rate of those first-rounders tends to bear that out.

Rosen averaged just 5.8 yards per attempt as a rookie, one of the worst numbers in the group. Most -- not all, but most -- of the guys who finished in his area have busted. David Carr, Kyle Boller, Blaine Gabbert, Joey Harrington. Eli Manning has had a nice career. Jared Goff just played in a Super Bowl (but too early to say for sure he'll have a long and successful career). I put the 2018 rookies in bold.

FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS, 2000-PRESENT
YearPkPlayerComAttPctYdPYPATDPInt
200411Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.19629566.426218.881711
201712Deshaun Watson, Hou.12620461.816998.33198
20122Robert Griffin III, Wash.25839365.632008.14205
20083Matt Ryan, Atl.26543461.134407.931611
20111Cam Newton, Car.31051760.040517.842117
20181Baker Mayfield, Clev.31048663.837257.662714
20152Marcus Mariota, Tenn.23037062.228187.621910
20151Jameis Winston, T.B.31253558.340427.562215
200611Jay Cutler, Den.8113759.110017.3195
201432Teddy Bridgewater, Minn.25940264.429197.261412
201832Lamar Jackson, Balt.9917058.212017.0663
20121Andrew Luck, Ind.33962754.143746.982318
200818Joe Flacco, Balt.25742860.029716.941412
20183Sam Darnold, NYJ23941457.728656.921715
20128Ryan Tannehill, Mia.28248458.332946.811213
200232Patrick Ramsey, Wash.11722751.515396.7898
200610Matt Leinart, Ariz.21437756.825476.761112
20037Byron Leftwich, Jac.23941857.228196.741416
20095Mark Sanchez, NYJ19636453.824446.711220
20172Mitchell Trubisky, Chi.19633059.421936.6577
201222Brandon Weeden, Clev.29751757.433856.551417
20187Josh Allen, Buff.16932052.820746.481012
201316EJ Manuel, Buff.18030658.819726.44119
200917Josh Freeman, T.B.15829054.518556.401018
201112Christian Ponder, Minn.15829154.318536.371313
20162Carson Wentz, Phil.37960762.437826.231614
20063Vince Young, Tenn.18435751.521996.161213
20143Blake Bortles, Jac.28047558.929086.121117
20091Matthew Stafford, Det.20137753.322676.011320
20101Sam Bradford, St.L.35459060.035125.951815
20021David Carr, Hou.23344452.525925.84915
201810Josh Rosen, Ariz.21739355.222785.801114
200319Kyle Boller, Balt.11622451.812605.6379
201110Blaine Gabbert, Jac.21041350.822145.361211
20023Joey Harrington, Det.21542950.122945.351216
20161Jared Goff, LAR11220554.610895.3157
20041Eli Manning, NYG9519748.210435.2969

Last preseason, Rosen flashed some potential when he played extensively against New Orleans. He was 10 of 16 for 107 yards and a touchdown, averaging nearly 7 yards per attempt in that one. Goff and Eli Manning were both pretty dreadful as rookies (especially Goff), but were a lot better after that.

But with a new coaching staff in Arizona, it's also one with no ties to Rosen. If Kingsbury watches the tape and decides he's already seen enough of the second-year quarterback, you never know. Some will keep on predicting it right up until it does or doesn't happen.

--Andy Richardson

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