The Ravens have released Michael Crabtree, an unsurprising outcome for a 31-year-old wideout set to make $7 million in 2019. But while Crabtree comes off the least-productive full season of his career -- his lowest receptions and yardage since San Francisco, and that was a season he missed a lot of games -- it's too early to stick a fork in his fantasy value.
Looking at the numbers, the determining factor with Crabtree's lesser production appears to be Lamar Jackson. Had Joe Flacco started the entire year, Crabtree might have pushed for a 75-catch, 850-yard season. If instead Jackson had started all 16 games, Crabtree would have been on a 30-catch, 350-yard pace.
First table below shows Crabtree in nine games with Flacco, and his projected 16-game stats.
| CRABTREE WITH JOE FLACCO | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Opp | No | Yds | TD |
| BUF | 3 | 38 | 1 |
| @ CIN | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| DEN | 7 | 61 | 0 |
| @ PIT | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| @ CLE | 6 | 66 | 0 |
| @ TEN | 6 | 93 | 1 |
| NO | 5 | 66 | 0 |
| @ CAR | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| PIT | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Avg | 4.5 | 52.4 | 0.2 |
| Proj | 73 | 839 | 3.6 |
Second shows Crabtree in eight games (including playoffs) with Jackson. He was a better scorer with the rookie, thanks to a couple of late (essentially garbage-time) touchdowns in the playoff loss. But he was a way less productive receiver.
| CRABTREE WITH LAMAR JACKSON | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Opp | No | Yds | TD |
| CIN | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| OAK | 3 | 21 | 1 |
| @ ATL | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| @ KC | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ LAC | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| CLE | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| LAC | 2 | 38 | 2 |
| Avg | 1.9 | 21.6 | 0.4 |
| Proj | 30 | 346 | 6.0 |
Crabtree won't necessarily sign right away, nor will he be viewed as a priority in fantasy drafts. But in the right situation, he can still be a productive receiver -- much more so than he was the second half of last season.
--Andy Richardson