The Eagles won’t put the franchise tag on Nick Foles. He’ll be an unrestricted free agent. Will a team like the Jaguars, Dolphins or Giants bring him in to be their starter?
Foles has some value. He’s got some experience and has been a Super Bowl MVP. But I’m not sure anyone will want to sign him to big money contract.
In Philadelphia, Foles was helped along by having a great cast around him. I think he showed some ability there to manage things, but I’m not sure he’s ever going to be one of the league’s top 15 quarterbacks. How much better (if at all) is he than the guys like Case Keenum, Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, Tyrod Taylor and Alex Smith?
Foles showed some ability in Philadelphia to have a nice rapport with Alshon Jeffery – a tall quarterback putting the ball up for a tall receiver, and they hit on some plays. And Foles has been good at getting the ball out of his hands. Including five playoff starts, Foles has taken only 18 sacks in the last 16 games he’s started. Foles went 10-3 as a starter with the Eagles.
But Foles doesn’t have any mobility, and his overall production hasn’t been great. He’s averaged only 205 passing yards in the last 16 regular-season games he’s started, with 15 TDs and 15 interceptions. If you include playoff games, Foles has averaged 241 passing yards in his last 16 starts, with 22 TDs and 15 interceptions (that would include 13 starts for the Eagles, 2 with the Rams, and one with Kansas City).
If we look at the last 16 regular-season starts for active quarterbacks, Foles comes in next-to-last using standard fantasy scoring, slightly behind Blaine Gabbert and slightly ahead of Brock Osweiler. If you sub in Foles’ five playoff starts (removing five crappy starts for the Rams in 2015) then upgrade Foles to simply below-average.
| QUARTERBACKS: LAST 16 STARTS | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | W-L | Pct | Pass | TDP | Int | Run | TDR | Pts |
| Patrick Mahomes | 12-4 | 66% | 5,097 | 50 | 12 | 272 | 2 | 494.1 |
| Matt Ryan | 7-9 | 69% | 4,924 | 35 | 7 | 125 | 3 | 416.7 |
| Jared Goff | 13-3 | 65% | 4,688 | 32 | 12 | 108 | 2 | 385.2 |
| Jameis Winston | 4-12 | 64% | 4,509 | 25 | 18 | 363 | 2 | 373.8 |
| Andrew Luck | 9-7 | 67% | 4,095 | 35 | 12 | 139 | 0 | 358.7 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 9-7 | 68% | 4,342 | 30 | 13 | 73 | 2 | 356.4 |
| Drew Brees | 13-3 | 74% | 3,992 | 32 | 5 | 22 | 4 | 353.8 |
| Kirk Cousins | 8-7-1 | 70% | 4,298 | 30 | 10 | 123 | 1 | 353.2 |
| Deshaun Watson | 11-5 | 70% | 3,679 | 23 | 7 | 467 | 5 | 352.7 |
| Russell Wilson | 10-6 | 66% | 3,448 | 35 | 7 | 376 | 0 | 350.0 |
| Tom Brady | 11-5 | 66% | 4,355 | 29 | 11 | 35 | 2 | 349.3 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 12-4 | 66% | 3,594 | 24 | 12 | 467 | 4 | 346.4 |
| Philip Rivers | 12-4 | 68% | 4,308 | 32 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 344.1 |
| Cam Newton | 6-10 | 68% | 3,395 | 24 | 13 | 488 | 4 | 338.6 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 6-10 | 61% | 4,073 | 24 | 17 | 217 | 2 | 333.4 |
| Carson Wentz | 7-9 | 68% | 3,940 | 29 | 9 | 168 | 0 | 329.8 |
| Dak Prescott | 9-7 | 68% | 3,555 | 21 | 8 | 241 | 6 | 321.9 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 5-11 | 61% | 3,875 | 21 | 2 | 246 | 2 | 314.4 |
| Eli Manning | 5-11 | 66% | 4,299 | 21 | 11 | 20 | 1 | 307.0 |
| Joe Flacco | 9-7 | 62% | 4,055 | 22 | 9 | 86 | 1 | 305.4 |
| Josh McCown | 5-11 | 65% | 3,465 | 19 | 13 | 156 | 5 | 294.9 |
| Nick Foles (w playoffs) | 11-5 | 65% | 3,851 | 22 | 15 | 11 | 2 | 293.7 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 9-7 | 67% | 3,097 | 28 | 14 | 234 | 0 | 290.3 |
| Trevor Siemian | 7-9 | 59% | 3,767 | 18 | 19 | 145 | 1 | 280.9 |
| Matthew Stafford | 6-10 | 66% | 3,777 | 21 | 11 | 71 | 0 | 280.0 |
| Alex Smith | 9-7 | 63% | 3,349 | 17 | 6 | 288 | 1 | 270.3 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 8-7-1 | 61% | 2,879 | 13 | 5 | 476 | 4 | 267.6 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 4-12 | 59% | 3,252 | 13 | 7 | 283 | 4 | 266.9 |
| Andy Dalton | 7-9 | 61% | 3,139 | 25 | 14 | 96 | 0 | 266.6 |
| Sam Bradford | 5-11 | 71% | 3,669 | 19 | 9 | 58 | 0 | 265.3 |
| Blake Bortles | 3-13 | 59% | 3,219 | 15 | 16 | 380 | 1 | 265.0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 8-8 | 67% | 3,078 | 14 | 9 | 394 | 2 | 261.3 |
| Derek Carr | 4-12 | 67% | 3,458 | 18 | 7 | 46 | 1 | 255.5 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 11-5 | 65% | 3,118 | 15 | 9 | 188 | 3 | 252.7 |
| Case Keenum | 4-12 | 63% | 3,339 | 15 | 11 | 77 | 1 | 240.7 |
| Brian Hoyer | 2-14 | 61% | 3,309 | 14 | 6 | 19 | 1 | 229.4 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 6-10 | 58% | 2,620 | 14 | 15 | 263 | 2 | 225.3 |
| Nick Foles (reg season) | 9-7 | 61% | 3,276 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 0 | 225.1 |
| Brock Osweiler | 4-12 | 60% | 2,974 | 11 | 16 | 124 | 1 | 211.1 |
For me, I don’t see a quarterback who’s ever going to develop into a top-level starter. I wouldn’t want to bring him in to be “the guy”. I think he makes more sense for a team looking to strengthen its quarterback room. He could combo well with a team that drafts a rookie quarterback or has another questionable starter. Or he could make sense for a team that wants to put off making a big-time commitment to a quarterback until 2020. If a team was pretty sure it would be going after a quarterback with a top-5 pick next year, it would make sense to sign Foles to a one-year deal.
If I’m walking into a 12-team fantasy draft today, with each team selecting two quarterbacks, I don’t think Foles will be chosen.
—Ian Allan