I’m not a fan of the Jason Witten signing. It’s a move probably fueled more by the extensive criticism he took as a first-year broadcaster (he wasn’t very good) than by his desire to get back on the field.
Problem is, Witten will be 37 in May. He can’t run anymore. In his last season out, he averaged only 8.9 yards per catch. I expect his role will probably be to serve as a part-time player who contributes some short catches on third downs. Something along the lines of 50 catches, 450 yards and 3 TDs sounds about right.
In Witten’s last three seasons, he’s ranked 18th, 19th and 14th among tight ends. That’s standard scoring and using per-game figures. If you go with PPR scoring, than Witten has been a notch better – 14th, 14th and 9th the last three years.
I haven’t tried to stack the board yet, but in a gut sense, I’m thinking that if you select Witten, it would be the hope that he might finish as a top-15 tight end in standard scoring. Maybe top 12 in PPR. That’s his ceiling. Makes sense for him to be drafted as a second tight end in a 12-team tight end, but I would be more inclined to select a younger tight end with more upside. I’d rather use that roster spot on a player who might be special.
| WITTEN; PER-GAME CAREER NUMBERS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | St | No | Yards | TD | Std | PPR |
| 2003 | 15 | 2.3 | 23.1 | .07 | 24 | 22 |
| 2004 | 15 | 5.6 | 64.2 | .42 | 3 | 3 |
| 2005 | 16 | 4.1 | 47.3 | .38 | 6 | 7 |
| 2006 | 16 | 4.0 | 47.1 | .06 | 12 | 10 |
| 2007 | 16 | 6.0 | 71.6 | .44 | 1 | 1 |
| 2008 | 16 | 5.1 | 59.5 | .25 | 3 | 3 |
| 2009 | 16 | 5.9 | 64.4 | .13 | 11 | 6 |
| 2010 | 16 | 5.9 | 62.6 | .58 | 2 | 2 |
| 2011 | 16 | 4.9 | 58.9 | .31 | 8 | 7 |
| 2012 | 16 | 6.9 | 64.9 | .19 | 6 | 4 |
| 2013 | 16 | 4.6 | 53.2 | .50 | 6 | 6 |
| 2014 | 16 | 4.0 | 43.9 | .31 | 11 | 10 |
| 2015 | 16 | 4.8 | 44.6 | .19 | 18 | 14 |
| 2016 | 16 | 4.3 | 42.1 | .19 | 19 | 14 |
| 2017 | 16 | 3.9 | 35.0 | .31 | 14 | 9 |
Other tight ends, I will concede, have had some success later in their careers. Tony Gonzalez, most notably, finished as the No. 3 and No. 4 tight end when he was 36 and 37 years old. Antonio Gates was the 10th-best tight end in 2016 as a 36-year-old.
But as a 36- and 37-year-old the last two years, Gates hasn’t been a top-25 tight end. (On these numbers, I’m using standard scoring and looking at cumulative stats rather than per-game figures).
| OLD TIGHT ENDS | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Age | No | Yards | Avg | TD | Points | Rk |
| 2018 | Antonio Gates, LAC | 38 | 28 | 333 | 11.9 | 2 | 49.3 | 26 |
| 2013 | Tony Gonzalez, Atl. | 37 | 83 | 859 | 10.3 | 8 | 135.9 | 4 |
| 2017 | Antonio Gates, LAC | 37 | 30 | 316 | 10.5 | 3 | 49.6 | 29 |
| 2018 | Benjamin Watson, N.O. | 37 | 35 | 400 | 11.4 | 2 | 52.0 | 24 |
| 2002 | Wesley Walls, Car. | 36 | 19 | 241 | 12.7 | 4 | 48.1 | 19 |
| 2012 | Tony Gonzalez, Atl. | 36 | 93 | 930 | 10.0 | 8 | 141.0 | 3 |
| 2016 | Antonio Gates, S.D. | 36 | 53 | 548 | 10.3 | 7 | 96.8 | 10 |
| 2017 | Benjamin Watson, Balt. | 36 | 61 | 522 | 8.6 | 4 | 76.2 | 17 |
—Ian Allan