Antonio Brown has been traded to the Raiders. It's a big win for Brown, as long as he doesn't care about contending for a playoff spot. He's getting a new contract with a lot more guaranteed money, and he doesn't have to worry about his quarterback calling him out or any other wide receiver challenging him for the No. 1 spot.
On the flipside, the Raiders are definitely the 3rd-best team in the AFC West -- at best. Their defense is terrible, it's not clear if the team actually likes Derek Carr or is hoping to draft a quarterback in the first round, and Brown's stats seem likely to decline. His quarterback won't be as good and the passing game won't be as good. Maybe he's still one of the game's best wideouts, but I wouldn't draft him higher than the late 2nd or maybe the 3rd round. What's his interest level going to be midway through the season when the Raiders are 2-6? Brown won't be on any of my teams.
(By the way, unless the Steelers and Raiders finish in the same spot in their respective divisions this year or next, the teams won't face each other until 2022, so there won't even be a revenge game anytime soon.)
Pittsburgh, meantime, has extra third- and fifth-round picks (not great compensation, obviously), but rest assured they'll use one of those picks on a wide receiver. And the way they've been at picking wideouts, probably that guy will go on to tear up the league. Which brings us to James Washington.
The Steelers drafted Washington in the second round a year ago, which at the time dovetailed with the trade of Martavis Bryant (to Oakland, as it happens). But perhaps they also had an inkling a split with Brown was coming soon. Whatever the case, trading Brown leaves Pittsburgh with a sizable chunk of dead money against the cap, so they're probably not going to be able (or inclined) to sign a noteworthy wide receiver. Washington should get first crack at that No. 2 spot.
He'll need to show a lot more than he did as a rookie. In a couple of late-season games, he caught 3 for 65 against New England and 3 for 64 against Cincinnati. But the overall numbers weren't good. Among all wideouts with at least 30 targets a year ago, only three had a worse catch rate than Washington (and nobody is counting on them to be viable players in 2019).
WIDE RECEIVER CATCH RATES, 2018 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | Tm | Tgt | Rec | Ctch% | Yds | TD |
Michael Thomas | NOR | 147 | 125 | 85.0% | 1405 | 9 |
Ryan Switzer | PIT | 44 | 36 | 81.8% | 253 | 1 |
Tyler Lockett | SEA | 70 | 57 | 81.4% | 965 | 10 |
Phillip Dorsett | NWE | 42 | 32 | 76.2% | 290 | 3 |
Cole Beasley | DAL | 87 | 65 | 74.7% | 672 | 3 |
Danny Amendola | MIA | 79 | 59 | 74.7% | 575 | 1 |
Albert Wilson | MIA | 35 | 26 | 74.3% | 391 | 4 |
Adam Thielen | MIN | 153 | 113 | 73.9% | 1373 | 9 |
Chester Rogers | IND | 72 | 53 | 73.6% | 485 | 2 |
Rashard Higgins | CLE | 53 | 39 | 73.6% | 572 | 4 |
Jarius Wright | CAR | 59 | 43 | 72.9% | 447 | 1 |
Cooper Kupp | LAR | 55 | 40 | 72.7% | 566 | 6 |
Sammy Watkins | KAN | 55 | 40 | 72.7% | 519 | 3 |
Adam Humphries | TAM | 105 | 76 | 72.4% | 816 | 5 |
Emmanuel Sanders | DEN | 98 | 71 | 72.4% | 868 | 4 |
Taylor Gabriel | CHI | 93 | 67 | 72.0% | 688 | 2 |
Dontrelle Inman | IND | 39 | 28 | 71.8% | 304 | 3 |
Jordy Nelson | OAK | 88 | 63 | 71.6% | 739 | 3 |
Keenan Allen | LAC | 136 | 97 | 71.3% | 1196 | 6 |
Will Fuller | HOU | 45 | 32 | 71.1% | 503 | 4 |
Alshon Jeffery | PHI | 92 | 65 | 70.7% | 843 | 6 |
DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | 163 | 115 | 70.6% | 1572 | 11 |
Tyler Boyd | CIN | 108 | 76 | 70.4% | 1028 | 7 |
Seth Roberts | OAK | 64 | 45 | 70.3% | 494 | 2 |
Mohamed Sanu | ATL | 94 | 66 | 70.2% | 838 | 4 |
Amari Cooper | 2TM | 107 | 75 | 70.1% | 1005 | 7 |
Calvin Ridley | ATL | 92 | 64 | 69.6% | 821 | 10 |
Stefon Diggs | MIN | 149 | 102 | 68.5% | 1021 | 9 |
Julian Edelman | NWE | 108 | 74 | 68.5% | 850 | 6 |
Doug Baldwin | SEA | 73 | 50 | 68.5% | 618 | 5 |
Brandin Cooks | LAR | 117 | 80 | 68.4% | 1204 | 5 |
Keke Coutee | HOU | 41 | 28 | 68.3% | 287 | 1 |
Ryan Grant | IND | 52 | 35 | 67.3% | 334 | 1 |
D.J. Moore | CAR | 82 | 55 | 67.1% | 788 | 2 |
JuJu Smith-Schuster | PIT | 166 | 111 | 66.9% | 1426 | 7 |
DaeSean Hamilton | DEN | 45 | 30 | 66.7% | 243 | 2 |
Demarcus Robinson | KAN | 33 | 22 | 66.7% | 288 | 4 |
Geronimo Allison | GNB | 30 | 20 | 66.7% | 303 | 2 |
Julio Jones | ATL | 170 | 113 | 66.5% | 1677 | 8 |
Demaryius Thomas | 2TM | 89 | 59 | 66.3% | 677 | 5 |
Robert Woods | LAR | 130 | 86 | 66.2% | 1219 | 6 |
Taywan Taylor | TEN | 56 | 37 | 66.1% | 466 | 1 |
Nelson Agholor | PHI | 97 | 64 | 66.0% | 736 | 4 |
Laquon Treadwell | MIN | 53 | 35 | 66.0% | 302 | 1 |
Davante Adams | GNB | 169 | 111 | 65.7% | 1386 | 13 |
Golden Tate | 2TM | 113 | 74 | 65.5% | 795 | 4 |
Dede Westbrook | JAX | 101 | 66 | 65.3% | 717 | 5 |
Willie Snead | BAL | 95 | 62 | 65.3% | 651 | 1 |
Mike Williams | LAC | 66 | 43 | 65.2% | 664 | 10 |
Kendrick Bourne | SFO | 66 | 42 | 63.6% | 487 | 4 |
Chris Hogan | NWE | 55 | 35 | 63.6% | 532 | 3 |
Tre'Quan Smith | NOR | 44 | 28 | 63.6% | 427 | 5 |
Tyreek Hill | KAN | 137 | 87 | 63.5% | 1479 | 12 |
Trent Taylor | SFO | 41 | 26 | 63.4% | 215 | 1 |
T.Y. Hilton | IND | 120 | 76 | 63.3% | 1270 | 6 |
Christian Kirk | ARI | 68 | 43 | 63.2% | 590 | 3 |
Tyrell Williams | LAC | 65 | 41 | 63.1% | 653 | 5 |
Mike Evans | TAM | 138 | 86 | 62.3% | 1524 | 8 |
Randall Cobb | GNB | 61 | 38 | 62.3% | 383 | 2 |
Odell Beckham | NYG | 124 | 77 | 62.1% | 1052 | 6 |
Chris Godwin | TAM | 95 | 59 | 62.1% | 842 | 7 |
Antonio Brown | PIT | 168 | 104 | 61.9% | 1297 | 15 |
Jakeem Grant | MIA | 34 | 21 | 61.8% | 268 | 2 |
Sterling Shepard | NYG | 107 | 66 | 61.7% | 872 | 4 |
Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | 112 | 69 | 61.6% | 734 | 6 |
Chris Conley | KAN | 52 | 32 | 61.5% | 334 | 5 |
Robert Foster | BUF | 44 | 27 | 61.4% | 541 | 3 |
Anthony Miller | CHI | 54 | 33 | 61.1% | 423 | 7 |
Curtis Samuel | CAR | 65 | 39 | 60.0% | 494 | 5 |
Dante Pettis | SFO | 45 | 27 | 60.0% | 467 | 5 |
Isaiah McKenzie | 2TM | 30 | 18 | 60.0% | 179 | 0 |
A.J. Green | CIN | 77 | 46 | 59.7% | 694 | 6 |
Maurice Harris | WAS | 47 | 28 | 59.6% | 304 | 0 |
Jamison Crowder | WAS | 49 | 29 | 59.2% | 388 | 2 |
Kenny Golladay | DET | 119 | 70 | 58.8% | 1063 | 5 |
Zach Pascal | IND | 46 | 27 | 58.7% | 268 | 2 |
Allen Robinson | CHI | 94 | 55 | 58.5% | 754 | 4 |
Equanimeous St. Brown | GNB | 36 | 21 | 58.3% | 328 | 0 |
Corey Davis | TEN | 112 | 65 | 58.0% | 891 | 4 |
Kenny Stills | MIA | 64 | 37 | 57.8% | 553 | 6 |
Josh Gordon | 2TM | 71 | 41 | 57.7% | 737 | 4 |
Allen Hurns | DAL | 35 | 20 | 57.1% | 295 | 2 |
Paul Richardson | WAS | 35 | 20 | 57.1% | 262 | 2 |
Ted Ginn | NOR | 30 | 17 | 56.7% | 209 | 2 |
Deonte Thompson | 2TM | 30 | 17 | 56.7% | 161 | 0 |
Marvin Jones | DET | 62 | 35 | 56.5% | 508 | 5 |
Josh Doctson | WAS | 78 | 44 | 56.4% | 532 | 2 |
Tim Patrick | DEN | 41 | 23 | 56.1% | 315 | 1 |
Quincy Enunwa | NYJ | 68 | 38 | 55.9% | 449 | 1 |
Devin Funchess | CAR | 79 | 44 | 55.7% | 549 | 4 |
DeSean Jackson | TAM | 74 | 41 | 55.4% | 774 | 4 |
Tajae Sharpe | TEN | 47 | 26 | 55.3% | 316 | 2 |
Zay Jones | BUF | 102 | 56 | 54.9% | 652 | 7 |
Torrey Smith | CAR | 31 | 17 | 54.8% | 190 | 2 |
Josh Reynolds | LAR | 53 | 29 | 54.7% | 402 | 5 |
Jarvis Landry | CLE | 149 | 81 | 54.4% | 976 | 4 |
Antonio Callaway | CLE | 79 | 43 | 54.4% | 586 | 5 |
Keelan Cole | JAX | 70 | 38 | 54.3% | 491 | 1 |
Michael Crabtree | BAL | 100 | 54 | 54.0% | 607 | 3 |
Donte Moncrief | JAX | 89 | 48 | 53.9% | 668 | 3 |
Marquise Goodwin | SFO | 43 | 23 | 53.5% | 395 | 4 |
Terrelle Pryor | 2TM | 30 | 16 | 53.3% | 252 | 2 |
Robby Anderson | NYJ | 94 | 50 | 53.2% | 752 | 6 |
Pierre Garcon | SFO | 46 | 24 | 52.2% | 286 | 1 |
Marquez Valdes-Scantling | GNB | 73 | 38 | 52.1% | 581 | 2 |
DeVante Parker | MIA | 47 | 24 | 51.1% | 309 | 1 |
Courtland Sutton | DEN | 84 | 42 | 50.0% | 704 | 4 |
David Moore | SEA | 53 | 26 | 49.1% | 445 | 5 |
Jermaine Kearse | NYJ | 76 | 37 | 48.7% | 371 | 1 |
Aldrick Robinson | MIN | 35 | 17 | 48.6% | 231 | 5 |
Michael Gallup | DAL | 68 | 33 | 48.5% | 507 | 2 |
Marcell Ateman | OAK | 31 | 15 | 48.4% | 154 | 1 |
DJ Chark | JAX | 32 | 14 | 43.8% | 174 | 0 |
John Brown | BAL | 97 | 42 | 43.3% | 715 | 5 |
James Washington | PIT | 38 | 16 | 42.1% | 217 | 1 |
Kelvin Benjamin | 2TM | 67 | 25 | 37.3% | 380 | 1 |
Chad Williams | ARI | 46 | 17 | 37.0% | 171 | 1 |
John Ross | CIN | 58 | 21 | 36.2% | 210 | 7 |
Rookie wideouts not doing much isn't a big deal; Brown himself didn't do much when he was a rookie in Pittsburgh. Washington will get a crash course in the preseason, so maybe. He's working with a great quarterback and there's a great No. 1 wideout across the field to take attention away from him.
But you're definitely going pretty much sight unseen if you select Washington and hope you're getting a viable fantasy starter.
--Andy Richardson