Only the NFL understands why free agency opens on Wednesday while big-money contracts started being signed yesterday. Funny money was handed out to safeties, offensive tackles, linebackers and Nick Foles. But the deal that interests me most for its fantasy potential is Mike Davis signing with the Bears.
It's a 2-year, $6 million deal, cheap enough that Davis isn't necessarily guaranteed a roster spot. But he played well enough for Seattle the last two seasons that I think he'll most likely join Tarik Cohen atop the depth chart, with Cohen playing more and getting most of the passing game work, but Davis getting as many carries and probably playing more near the goal line. Jordan Howard remains on the roster, but that's temporary -- he'll be elsewhere before long.
Davis is a former late-round pick of the 49ers who's bounced around the last couple of years, but he played pretty well in Seattle when given the opportunity. Particularly as a runner: last year among backs with at least 80 rushing attempts, only eight were stuffed (zero or negative rushing yards) on a lower percentage of plays. Cohen was at the other end of the spectrum in that regard, so pretty certain Davis will get most of the inside running on this roster.
| RB STUFFS, 2018 (80 ATTEMPTS) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Att | Stuff | Yds | Pct |
| Gus Edwards, Balt. | 137 | 1 | -1 | 0.7% |
| James White, N.E. | 94 | 2 | -8 | 2.1% |
| T.J. Yeldon, Jac. | 104 | 3 | -7 | 2.9% |
| Mark Ingram, N.O. | 138 | 6 | -7 | 4.3% |
| Sony Michel, N.E. | 209 | 12 | -21 | 5.7% |
| Doug Martin, Oak. | 172 | 10 | -23 | 5.8% |
| Kerryon Johnson, Det. | 118 | 7 | -13 | 5.9% |
| Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 219 | 13 | -27 | 5.9% |
| Mike Davis, Sea. | 112 | 7 | -9 | 6.3% |
| Frank Gore, Mia. | 156 | 10 | -17 | 6.4% |
| Chris Carson, Sea. | 247 | 16 | -29 | 6.5% |
| Marlon Mack, Ind. | 195 | 13 | -29 | 6.7% |
| Wendell Smallwood, Phil. | 87 | 6 | -17 | 6.9% |
| Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 194 | 14 | -35 | 7.2% |
| Melvin Gordon, LAC | 175 | 13 | -28 | 7.4% |
| Austin Ekeler, LAC | 106 | 8 | -22 | 7.5% |
| David Johnson, Ariz. | 258 | 20 | -31 | 7.8% |
| Latavius Murray, Min. | 140 | 11 | -24 | 7.9% |
| Derrick Henry, Ten. | 215 | 18 | -37 | 8.4% |
| James Conner, Pitt. | 215 | 18 | -34 | 8.4% |
| Royce Freeman, Den. | 130 | 11 | -22 | 8.5% |
| Marshawn Lynch, Oak. | 90 | 8 | -16 | 8.9% |
| Todd Gurley, LAR | 256 | 23 | -47 | 9.0% |
| Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 304 | 29 | -50 | 9.5% |
| Jordan Howard, Chi. | 250 | 24 | -51 | 9.6% |
| Aaron Jones, G.B. | 133 | 13 | -28 | 9.8% |
| Jamaal Williams, G.B. | 121 | 12 | -23 | 9.9% |
| Bilal Powell, NYJ | 80 | 8 | -18 | 10.0% |
| Phillip Lindsay, Den. | 192 | 20 | -39 | 10.4% |
| Carlos Hyde, 2 tm | 172 | 18 | -29 | 10.5% |
| Nyheim Hines, Ind. | 85 | 9 | -12 | 10.6% |
| Alfred Blue, Hou. | 150 | 16 | -31 | 10.7% |
| Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 181 | 20 | -44 | 11.0% |
| Josh Allen, Buff. | 89 | 10 | -18 | 11.2% |
| Peyton Barber, T.B. | 234 | 27 | -72 | 11.5% |
| Rashaad Penny, Sea. | 85 | 10 | -17 | 11.8% |
| Isaiah Crowell, NYJ | 143 | 17 | -43 | 11.9% |
| Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 133 | 16 | -41 | 12.0% |
| Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 99 | 12 | -16 | 12.1% |
| Chris Ivory, Buff. | 115 | 14 | -29 | 12.2% |
| Alex Collins, Balt. | 114 | 14 | -44 | 12.3% |
| Matt Breida, S.F. | 153 | 19 | -47 | 12.4% |
| Nick Chubb, Clev. | 192 | 24 | -45 | 12.5% |
| Josh Adams, Phil. | 120 | 15 | -32 | 12.5% |
| Saquon Barkley, NYG | 261 | 34 | -99 | 13.0% |
| Joe Mixon, Cin. | 237 | 31 | -73 | 13.1% |
| Lamar Miller, Hou. | 210 | 28 | -61 | 13.3% |
| Cam Newton, Car. | 101 | 14 | -17 | 13.9% |
| Tarik Cohen, Chi. | 99 | 14 | -43 | 14.1% |
| Dalvin Cook, Min. | 133 | 19 | -29 | 14.3% |
| LeSean McCoy, Buff. | 161 | 24 | -60 | 14.9% |
| Kenyan Drake, Mia. | 120 | 18 | -47 | 15.0% |
| LeGarrette Blount, Det. | 154 | 24 | -54 | 15.6% |
| Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 147 | 23 | -49 | 15.6% |
| Alfred Morris, S.F. | 111 | 18 | -41 | 16.2% |
| Ito Smith, Atl. | 90 | 15 | -37 | 16.7% |
| Adrian Peterson, Was. | 251 | 42 | -82 | 16.7% |
| Dion Lewis, Ten. | 155 | 28 | -58 | 18.1% |
| Elijah McGuire, NYJ | 92 | 17 | -34 | 18.5% |
| Tevin Coleman, Atl. | 167 | 31 | -84 | 18.6% |
Interesting name at the very bottom of the list: free agent Tevin Coleman, stuffed on nearly a fifth of his rushing attempts last year. Somebody is going to give Coleman a lot of money.
Davis can catch; he caught 34 passes last year, handling a lot of the passing down work in Seattle. But no one should be concerned that he'll take many chances away from Cohen in that regard. Last year 39 running backs caught at least 30 passes. Cohen was one of the best of those backs at turning those catches into decent yardage, while Davis was one of the worst.
| RB RECEIVING, 2018 (30 RECEPTIONS) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | TD |
| Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 26 | 378 | 14.5 | 14 |
| Kyle Juszczyk, S.F. | 30 | 324 | 10.8 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler, LAC | 39 | 404 | 10.4 | 6 |
| Tarik Cohen, Chi. | 71 | 725 | 10.2 | 8 |
| Todd Gurley, LAR | 59 | 580 | 9.8 | 21 |
| Melvin Gordon, LAC | 50 | 490 | 9.8 | 14 |
| Matt Breida, S.F. | 27 | 261 | 9.7 | 5 |
| Duke Johnson, Cle. | 47 | 429 | 9.1 | 3 |
| James Conner, Pitt. | 55 | 497 | 9.0 | 13 |
| Kenyan Drake, Mia. | 53 | 477 | 9.0 | 9 |
| Jalen Richard, Oak. | 68 | 607 | 8.9 | 1 |
| David Johnson, Ariz. | 50 | 446 | 8.9 | 10 |
| T.J. Yeldon, Jac. | 55 | 487 | 8.9 | 5 |
| Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 81 | 709 | 8.8 | 18 |
| James White, N.E. | 87 | 751 | 8.6 | 12 |
| Tevin Coleman, Atl. | 32 | 276 | 8.6 | 9 |
| Wendell Smallwood, Phil. | 28 | 230 | 8.2 | 5 |
| Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 107 | 867 | 8.1 | 13 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers, T.B. | 38 | 304 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Saquon Barkley, NYG | 91 | 721 | 7.9 | 15 |
| Aaron Jones, G.B. | 26 | 206 | 7.9 | 9 |
| Jamaal Williams, G.B. | 27 | 210 | 7.8 | 3 |
| Jaylen Samuels, Pitt. | 26 | 199 | 7.7 | 3 |
| Dalvin Cook, Min. | 40 | 305 | 7.6 | 4 |
| Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 77 | 567 | 7.4 | 9 |
| Devontae Booker, Den. | 38 | 275 | 7.2 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy, Buff. | 34 | 238 | 7.0 | 3 |
| Phillip Lindsay, Den. | 35 | 241 | 6.9 | 10 |
| Joe Mixon, Cin. | 43 | 296 | 6.9 | 9 |
| Dion Lewis, Ten. | 59 | 400 | 6.8 | 2 |
| Nyheim Hines, Ind. | 63 | 425 | 6.8 | 4 |
| Kerryon Johnson, Det. | 32 | 213 | 6.7 | 4 |
| Chris Thompson, Was. | 41 | 268 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Lamar Miller, Hou. | 25 | 163 | 6.5 | 6 |
| Theo Riddick, Det. | 61 | 384 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Mike Davis, Sea. | 34 | 214 | 6.3 | 5 |
| Giovani Bernard, Cin. | 35 | 218 | 6.2 | 3 |
| Ito Smith, Atl. | 27 | 152 | 5.6 | 4 |
| Javorius Allen, Balt. | 35 | 196 | 5.6 | 5 |
There's a lot of offseason left. The Bears could still draft someone, and they have to move on from Howard. But the Davis signing suggests that will happen, and probably means they won't be signing someone like Mark Ingram or Adrian Peterson, who they've been linked to. The Davis signing looks like a positive for Cohen, and a good spot for Davis himself, too.
--Andy Richardson