It's the pre-draft story that won't go away. The Cardinals will apparently draft Kyler Murray with the No. 1 overall pick, and they'll ship last year's first-rounder, Josh Rosen, out of town. Nobody is even bothering to deny it at this point. Biggest question is how much they'll get for him.
Initial reports a few weeks back guessed a third-rounder. Yesterday's named the teams interested and said one had offered a second-rounder. The Cardinals are apparently looking for a first-rounder. And that isn't going to happen; I'm not even certain they'll get that second.
The three teams supposedly "very interested" in Rosen (Giants, Patriots and Chargers) already have 2019 starting quarterbacks; at least two of those guys might have multiple starting seasons left to them. Moreover, even if those teams liked Rosen coming out of college last year, could they really like him as much a year later? He had a pretty awful first season.
Most rookie passers struggle, of course. More often than not they're going to teams with crummy offensive lines and talent problems at the skill positions, and that was mostly true in Arizona. But Rosen gave little indication that a team could give up a high pick from him and feel like they've got their quarterback of the future all set to go.
There aren't any metrics that make Rosen look particularly good. For the table below, showing first-round quarterbacks with at least 200 passing attempts since 2000, I went with yards per attempt, which I think is a good way to judge quarterback performance -- if they're looking downfield and completing those throws, seeming capable of running an NFL offense. Lots of guys struggle with interceptions and completion percentage as rookies, with those turnovers resulting in lousy passer ratings. Peyton Manning threw 28 interceptions as a rookie, and he went on to have a Hall of Fame career. But he averaged 6.50 yards per attempt, which would have landed him in the middle of the below list.
By that measurement, Rosen shows up way down near the bottom, and most of those guys were busts.
| 1ST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS, ROOKIE YPA, 2000-PRESENT | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | Com | Att | Yds | YPA | TD | Int |
| 2004 | 11 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 196 | 295 | 2621 | 8.88 | 17 | 11 |
| 2017 | 12 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 126 | 204 | 1699 | 8.33 | 19 | 8 |
| 2012 | 2 | Robert Griffin III, Wash. | 258 | 393 | 3200 | 8.14 | 20 | 5 |
| 2008 | 3 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 265 | 434 | 3440 | 7.93 | 16 | 11 |
| 2011 | 1 | Cam Newton, Car. | 310 | 517 | 4051 | 7.84 | 21 | 17 |
| 2018 | 1 | Baker Mayfield, Clev. | 310 | 486 | 3725 | 7.66 | 27 | 14 |
| 2015 | 2 | Marcus Mariota, Tenn. | 230 | 370 | 2818 | 7.62 | 19 | 10 |
| 2015 | 1 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 312 | 535 | 4042 | 7.56 | 22 | 15 |
| 2014 | 32 | Teddy Bridgewater, Minn. | 259 | 402 | 2919 | 7.26 | 14 | 12 |
| 2012 | 1 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 339 | 627 | 4374 | 6.98 | 23 | 18 |
| 2008 | 18 | Joe Flacco, Balt. | 257 | 428 | 2971 | 6.94 | 14 | 12 |
| 2018 | 3 | Sam Darnold, NYJ | 239 | 414 | 2865 | 6.92 | 17 | 15 |
| 2012 | 8 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 282 | 484 | 3294 | 6.81 | 12 | 13 |
| 2002 | 32 | Patrick Ramsey, Wash. | 117 | 227 | 1539 | 6.78 | 9 | 8 |
| 2006 | 10 | Matt Leinart, Ariz. | 214 | 377 | 2547 | 6.76 | 11 | 12 |
| 2003 | 7 | Byron Leftwich, Jac. | 239 | 418 | 2819 | 6.74 | 14 | 16 |
| 2009 | 5 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 196 | 364 | 2444 | 6.71 | 12 | 20 |
| 2017 | 2 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 196 | 330 | 2193 | 6.65 | 7 | 7 |
| 2012 | 22 | Brandon Weeden, Clev. | 297 | 517 | 3385 | 6.55 | 14 | 17 |
| 2018 | 7 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 169 | 320 | 2074 | 6.48 | 10 | 12 |
| 2013 | 16 | EJ Manuel, Buff. | 180 | 306 | 1972 | 6.44 | 11 | 9 |
| 2009 | 17 | Josh Freeman, T.B. | 158 | 290 | 1855 | 6.40 | 10 | 18 |
| 2011 | 12 | Christian Ponder, Minn. | 158 | 291 | 1853 | 6.37 | 13 | 13 |
| 2016 | 2 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 379 | 607 | 3782 | 6.23 | 16 | 14 |
| 2006 | 3 | Vince Young, Tenn. | 184 | 357 | 2199 | 6.16 | 12 | 13 |
| 2014 | 3 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 280 | 475 | 2908 | 6.12 | 11 | 17 |
| 2009 | 1 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 201 | 377 | 2267 | 6.01 | 13 | 20 |
| 2010 | 1 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | 354 | 590 | 3512 | 5.95 | 18 | 15 |
| 2002 | 1 | David Carr, Hou. | 233 | 444 | 2592 | 5.84 | 9 | 15 |
| 2018 | 10 | Josh Rosen, Ariz. | 217 | 393 | 2278 | 5.80 | 11 | 14 |
| 2003 | 19 | Kyle Boller, Balt. | 116 | 224 | 1260 | 5.63 | 7 | 9 |
| 2011 | 10 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 210 | 413 | 2214 | 5.36 | 12 | 11 |
| 2002 | 3 | Joey Harrington, Det. | 215 | 429 | 2294 | 5.35 | 12 | 16 |
| 2016 | 1 | Jared Goff, LAR | 112 | 205 | 1089 | 5.31 | 5 | 7 |
Those with a keen eye will note Jared Goff at the very bottom, and -- under Sean McVay -- he's recovered nicely the last couple of years. As a rookie, he was stuck in a stunted, ridiculous offense run by Rob Boras, who might be a wonderful fellow but that was the only time in his career he ran an NFL offense (more commonly he's been a tight ends coach). Rosen probably wasn't helped much by his coaching staff last year, which started with Mike McCoy (who's been fired a lot lately) and finished with Byron Leftwich, in his first coordinator gig. Just two years ago Leftwich held the title of intern for the Cardinals, as novice as it gets.
But whatever. The vast majority of quarterbacks at the bottom of the list washed out of the league fairly quickly. David Carr, Kyle Boller, Joey Harrington. Blaine Gabbert has hung around, but not with distinction.
Can Rosen beat the odds against rookie quarterbacks who struggled as much as he did? Is he just a trade away from being the next Jared Goff or perhaps Matthew Stafford?
We don't know the answer yet, but I'm going to be surprised if the Chargers or Patriots give up a second-round pick on that hope. The Giants, who haven't made a wealth of smooth moves in the Dave Gettleman era, look a little more likely.
--Andy Richardson