Josh Jacobs is expected to be the first running back chosen in the NFL Draft later this month. It's not a given, however, that he'll be a first-round pick, certainly not selected as early as Saquon Barkley, Leonard Fournette and Ezekiel Elliott in recent years. He'll be drafted by the end of Day 2, certainly, despite a relative lack of college production.
Jacobs played in a tandem with Damien Harris at Alabama, and he was a secondary part of that duo -- Harris had more carries and yards last year. Jacobs finished under 1,000 total yards, which is rare for running backs selected in the first three rounds. Teams seem to want proof that a back can carry the load before selecting them early.
Over the last decade, there have been 69 running backs selected in the first three rounds of the draft. Only 9 of those backs (13 percent) finished under 1,000 total yards in their final season of college. Two-thirds of them (46), meanwhile, went over 1,500. It appears that teams had a lot more confidence using early picks on running backs who'd proven capable of handing a heavy workload in college.
RBS DRAFTED ROUNDS 1-3, 2009-2018 (FINAL YR OF COLLEGE STATS) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Rd | Player | Run | Rec | Total | TD |
2014 | 3 | Terrance West | 2519 | 258 | 2777 | 42 |
2015 | 1 | Melvin Gordon | 2587 | 153 | 2740 | 32 |
2018 | 1 | Rashaad Penny | 2248 | 135 | 2383 | 25 |
2017 | 3 | D'Onta Foreman | 2028 | 75 | 2351 | 15 |
2016 | 2 | Derrick Henry | 2219 | 91 | 2310 | 28 |
2017 | 2 | Dalvin Cook | 1765 | 488 | 2253 | 20 |
2009 | 1 | Donald Brown | 2083 | 125 | 2208 | 18 |
2014 | 3 | Tre Mason | 1816 | 163 | 2179 | 24 |
2015 | 3 | Tevin Coleman | 2036 | 141 | 2177 | 15 |
2014 | 2 | Bishop Sankey | 1870 | 304 | 2174 | 21 |
2015 | 3 | David Johnson | 1553 | 536 | 2089 | 19 |
2015 | 3 | Duke Johnson | 1652 | 421 | 2073 | 13 |
2010 | 2 | Toby Gerhart | 1871 | 157 | 2028 | 28 |
2016 | 1 | Ezekiel Elliott | 1821 | 206 | 2027 | 23 |
2012 | 1 | Trent Richardson | 1679 | 338 | 2017 | 24 |
2012 | 2 | LaMichael James | 1805 | 210 | 2015 | 19 |
2012 | 3 | Ronnie Hillman | 1711 | 270 | 1981 | 20 |
2013 | 2 | LeVeon Bell | 1793 | 167 | 1960 | 13 |
2010 | 1 | Ryan Mathews | 1808 | 122 | 1930 | 19 |
2017 | 1 | Christian McCaffrey | 1603 | 310 | 1913 | 16 |
2018 | 1 | Saquon Barkley | 1271 | 632 | 1903 | 21 |
2013 | 2 | Montee Ball | 1830 | 72 | 1902 | 22 |
2009 | 3 | Shonn Greene | 1850 | 49 | 1899 | 20 |
2011 | 2 | Mikel Leshoure | 1697 | 196 | 1893 | 20 |
2015 | 2 | Ameer Abdullah | 1611 | 269 | 1880 | 22 |
2017 | 3 | Kareem Hunt | 1475 | 403 | 1878 | 11 |
2012 | 1 | David Wilson | 1709 | 129 | 1838 | 10 |
2017 | 2 | Joe Mixon | 1274 | 538 | 1812 | 16 |
2011 | 3 | DeMarco Murray | 1214 | 594 | 1808 | 20 |
2009 | 2 | LeSean McCoy | 1488 | 305 | 1793 | 21 |
2009 | 1 | Knowshon Moreno | 1400 | 392 | 1792 | 18 |
2011 | 2 | Daniel Thomas | 1585 | 171 | 1756 | 19 |
2018 | 2 | Ronald Jones | 1550 | 187 | 1737 | 20 |
2013 | 2 | Giovani Bernard | 1228 | 490 | 1718 | 17 |
2010 | 1 | C.J. Spiller | 1212 | 503 | 1715 | 16 |
2014 | 2 | Carlos Hyde | 1521 | 147 | 1668 | 18 |
2010 | 2 | Montario Hardesty | 1345 | 302 | 1647 | 14 |
2018 | 3 | Royce Freeman | 1475 | 164 | 1639 | 16 |
2018 | 2 | Kerryon Johnson | 1391 | 194 | 1585 | 20 |
2014 | 2 | Jeremy Hill | 1401 | 181 | 1582 | 16 |
2012 | 2 | Isaiah Pead | 1259 | 319 | 1578 | 15 |
2011 | 3 | Alex Green | 1199 | 363 | 1562 | 19 |
2012 | 1 | Doug Martin | 1299 | 255 | 1554 | 18 |
2012 | 3 | Bernard Pierce | 1481 | 52 | 1533 | 27 |
2013 | 2 | Eddie Lacy | 1322 | 189 | 1511 | 19 |
2009 | 3 | Glen Coffee | 1383 | 118 | 1501 | 11 |
2014 | 3 | Charles Sims | 1095 | 401 | 1496 | 14 |
2010 | 2 | Ben Tate | 1362 | 105 | 1467 | 10 |
2017 | 3 | James Conner | 1092 | 302 | 1394 | 20 |
2011 | 2 | Shane Vereen | 1167 | 209 | 1376 | 16 |
2018 | 2 | Nick Chubb | 1345 | 30 | 1375 | 15 |
2018 | 2 | Derrius Guice | 1251 | 124 | 1375 | 13 |
2016 | 3 | C.J. Prosise | 1029 | 308 | 1337 | 12 |
2018 | 1 | Sony Michel | 1227 | 96 | 1323 | 17 |
2009 | 1 | Beanie Wells | 1197 | 47 | 1244 | 8 |
2011 | 3 | Stevan Ridley | 1147 | 61 | 1208 | 15 |
2015 | 2 | T.J. Yeldon | 979 | 180 | 1159 | 12 |
2011 | 1 | Mark Ingram | 875 | 282 | 1157 | 14 |
2010 | 1 | Jahvid Best | 867 | 213 | 1080 | 16 |
2014 | 3 | Jerick McKinnon | 1050 | 23 | 1073 | 12 |
2017 | 3 | Alvin Kamara | 596 | 392 | 988 | 13 |
2017 | 1 | Leonard Fournette | 843 | 146 | 989 | 8 |
2015 | 1 | Todd Gurley | 911 | 57 | 968 | 9 |
2015 | 3 | Matt Jones | 817 | 65 | 882 | 7 |
2014 | 3 | Dri Archer | 527 | 327 | 854 | 11 |
2016 | 3 | Kenyan Drake | 408 | 276 | 684 | 2 |
2011 | 2 | Ryan Williams | 477 | 109 | 586 | 10 |
2013 | 3 | Knile Davis | 377 | 157 | 534 | 3 |
2013 | 2 | Christine Michael | 417 | 48 | 465 | 12 |
Jacobs had 640 rushing and 247 receiving yards last season. He'd show up near the bottom of the list, which is sorted by total yards the final year of college.
Two of the league's best young running backs the last couple of seasons, Todd Gurley and Alvin Kamara, also show up near the bottom of the list. The Rams didn't hesitate to select Gurley with a top-10 pick, while the Saints gave up a future 2nd to draft Kamara, and would do so again. Fournette also shows up down under 1,000 total yards.
Atop the list are a couple of guys who have either been very good pros -- Melvin Gordon -- or might yet be (Rashaad Penny, Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry). Too early to say on those guys. But Terrance West and Tre Mason didn't work out, and thus far we haven't seen much out of D'Onta Foreman. Regardless, I don't think there's much to say that teams should be putting heavy weight into how much these backs did in college. Just that it looks like they do.