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Patriots schedules

Does soft AFC East give New England an unfair advantage?

Have the Patriots tended to benefit from playing the league’s easiest schedules year in and year out? That’s not what the numbers suggest.

It seems like New England might get an edge from playing six games each year against the Jets, Dolphins and Dolphins, but that hasn’t really been the case. There are other bad teams, and some of whatever edge the Patriots might get is erased by having to play two extra games against first-place teams each season.

Ultimately, you can simply count up the numbers. Each team plays 16 games each year. Take each one of those teams, and then look at what its win-loss record was in its other 15 games. Such a process gives each team some combination of 240 wins and losses over a season.

Over the last 10 years, New England’s opponents have a combined record of 1,195 wins and 1,196 losses, with 9 ties – just short of a .500 record.

The Colts, Jaguars and Titans have tended to play the easiest schedules. The Rams, Panthers and Broncos have tended to play the hardest.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (last 10 years)
YearWinLossTPct
Indianapolis1,1641,2351.485
Jacksonville1,1681,2302.487
Tennessee1,1721,2271.489
Kansas City1,1751,2232.490
Pittsburgh1,1731,2189.491
LA Chargers1,1771,2212.491
Washington1,1801,2155.493
Baltimore1,1771,21112.493
Dallas1,1841,2115.494
Arizona1,1831,2098.495
Atlanta1,1841,2079.495
Houston1,1911,2063.497
San Francisco1,1911,2018.498
New Orleans1,1911,2009.498
Seattle1,1921,1999.499
Philadelphia1,1951,1978.500
NY Jets1,1951,1978.500
New England1,1951,1969.500
Cincinnati1,1981,1966.500
Green Bay1,1991,1947.501
Chicago1,2041,18412.504
Miami1,2071,1867.504
Minnesota1,2101,1837.506
Oakland1,2151,1832.507
Detroit1,2121,17612.508
Cleveland1,2161,1759.509
NY Giants1,2181,1766.509
Buffalo1,2181,1757.509
Tampa Bay1,2221,1708.511
Denver1,2271,1694.512
Carolina1,2301,1646.514
LA Rams1,2321,1617.515

If you prefer to go all the way back to 2002 – the start of the 32-team era – the Patriots in those 17 years have only twice played a schedule that I would describe as easy. In 2016, their opponents went a combined 109-128-3 in their other 240 games. And in 2011, they went 112-128 against other teams.

Since 2002, New England’s opponents are actually 36 games over .500.

PATRIOTS SCHEDULES (2002-18)
YearTeamWLTPct
2002New England1271121.531
2003New England1221180.508
2004New England1241160.517
2005New England1241160.517
2006New England1231170.513
2007New England1201200.500
2008New England1181220.492
2009New England1261140.525
2010New England1271130.529
2011New England1121280.467
2012New England1221162.513
2013New England1171230.488
2014New England1271121.531
2015New England1171230.488
2016New England1091283.460
2017New England1211190.504
2018New England1171203.494

The Patriots aren’t winning because they’re playing easy schedules. They’re winning because they have they have the best coach-quarterback combo in the history of the game. (And it helps a lot that their quarterback is playing for a lot less than he’s worth, freeing them up to sign other good players.)

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index