Is it better to overreact or under-react to NFL news? I've tried to strike a balance when it comes to the Kansas City Defense, but it's been tough. They've been yo-yoing around my preliminary rankings, to the point where I'm no longer certain if I'm too high, or too low.
They had the No. 2-ranked fantasy defense last year, a product of ranking 1st in sacks and 7th in takeaways. But that group is gone. Coordinator Bob Sutton got the axe, and two of the team's best pass rushers, Dee Ford and Justin Houston (a combined 22 sacks), were also dumped. Made sense to move them well down the rankings. Right?
They hired Steve Spagnuolo to run the defense, and he was out of football entirely last season. His last defense, the Giants in 2017, was a crummy fantasy group: bottom 5 in sacks and bottom 10 in takeaways. Spagnuolo gets a huge amount of credit, deservedly, for the defense that spoiled New England's undefeated season a decade ago, but those days are gone.
Spagnuolo runs a 4-3, and that prompted the Ford and Houston departures. They were outside linebackers in Sutton's defense, and were considered poor fits for the new system. Seems like a heckuva gamble, though, to shed such talent just to adapt to a coordinator whose best defenses are in the distant past.
Kansas City doubled down on that gamble yesterday, giving up a first-round pick and a $105.5 million contract to Seattle pass rusher Frank Clark (pictured sacking his new quarterback last season). Essentially they went from Ford to Clark for a first and that huge contract. It's a lot of faith they're putting in the new defensive system, but there's no arguing that in Clark and incumbent Chris Jones, they've got the best pair of pass rushing defensive ends in the league. Those guys ranked 3rd and 7th in sacks last season.
| 2018 SACK LEADERS | ||
|---|---|---|
| Pos | Player | Sacks |
| DE | Aaron Donald, LAR | 20.5 |
| DE | J.J. Watt, Hou. | 16.0 |
| DE | Chris Jones, K.C. | 15.5 |
| DE | Danielle Hunter, Minn. | 14.5 |
| OLB | Von Miller, Den. | 14.5 |
| DE | Myles Garrett, Clev. | 13.5 |
| DE | Frank Clark, Sea. | 13.0 |
| OLB | T.J. Watt, Pitt. | 13.0 |
| OLB | Dee Ford, K.C. | 13.0 |
| DE | Chandler Jones, Ariz. | 13.0 |
| OLB | Ryan Kerrigan, Wash. | 13.0 |
| DE | Jason Pierre-Paul, T.B. | 12.5 |
| OLB | Khalil Mack, Chi. | 12.5 |
| DT | DeForest Buckner, S.F. | 12.0 |
| OLB | Bradley Chubb, Den. | 12.0 |
| DE | Cameron Jordan, N.O. | 12.0 |
| DE | Calais Campbell, Jac. | 10.5 |
| DE | Demarcus Lawrence, Dall. | 10.5 |
| DT | Jarran Reed, Sea. | 10.5 |
| DT | Fletcher Cox, Phil. | 10.5 |
| LB | Kyler Fackrell, G.B. | 10.5 |
| DT | Geno Atkins, Cin. | 10.0 |
| DE | Yannick Ngakoue, Jac. | 9.5 |
| OLB | Jadeveon Clowney, Hou. | 9.0 |
| DT | Denico Autry, Ind. | 9.0 |
| OLB | Justin Houston, K.C. | 9.0 |
| DE | Mario Addison, Car. | 9.0 |
| DE | Michael Bennett, Phil. | 9.0 |
| OLB | Za'Darius Smith, Balt. | 8.5 |
| DE | Jonathan Allen, Wash. | 8.0 |
| DE | Cameron Heyward, Pitt. | 8.0 |
| DE | Carlos Dunlap, Cin. | 8.0 |
| DT | Sheldon Rankins, N.O. | 8.0 |
I had Kansas City's defense as low as 15th in the early rankings. Today, they're just inside the top 10. Hopefully there will be some clarity on the status of return man Tyreek Hill before the magazine goes to print, as his absence would factor into their valuation, especially in TD-only formats.
The other involved team, Seattle, is also a tricky one to rank. They've ranked 6th and 10th in fantasy defense the last two seasons, but lost safety Earl Thomas and now their best pass rusher. Their other best pass rusher, Jarran Reed, just underwent sports hernia surgery, though he's expected to be fine for training camp. On their behalf, they're now drafting at 21 and 29 on Thursday, giving them two chances to add to that defense with a couple of the draft's top players. Presumably they won't surprise everyone with drafting a running back early again this year.
Kansas City is looking to win now, and their defense was terrible (in yards and points allowed) a year ago. Hard to fault them for blowing things up.
But considering the draft pick and financial compensation they've handed out, it better work. They'll look pretty bad if it doesn't.
--Andy Richardson