I’m not a big Josh Jacobs fan. He’ll be a starter, and I suppose that makes him one of the first 20 running backs who should be drafted in a typical fantasy draft. But I don’t think he’ll hit it big.

Jacobs doesn’t have great measurables. He’s a 4.6 guy. Of all running backs who’ve been selected in the first round in this century, only two ran at the combine and didn’t run faster than 4.60 – William Green (whom many won’t even remember) and Mark Ingram.

Jacobs wasn’t special or heavily used at Alabama. The other main back in that offense, Damien Harris, actually ran for more yards and finished with a better yards-per-attempt average in each of the last three years. As good as Jacobs is supposed to be, he averaged only 5.3 yards per carry last year. There are a lot of college running backs who would like their chances of averaging 5.3 while running behind Alabama’s NFL factory offensive line.

Ultimately, to me, when a back is special and everyone knows it, he gets selected early in the first round. Guys like Saquon Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott in recent years. Jacobs isn’t that kind of a prospect. Instead, he was a late first-round pick, and the instant hit rate with those guys goes way down.

In this century, 24 running backs have been selected in the second half of the first round. Only four of those guys went over 1,000 yards in their first year. A greater number (six) failed to run for even 100 yards in their first year.

RUNNING BACKS, SECOND HALF OF FIRST ROUND
YearPkPlayerRunRecTotTD
200019Shaun Alexander, Sea.313413542
200031• Trung Canidate, St.L.64100
200127Michael Bennett, Minn.6822269083
200123• Deuce McAllister, N.O.911662572
200218T.J. Duckett, Atl.507615684
200327• Larry Johnson, K.C.852871
200323• Willis McGahee, Buff.0000
200430Kevin Jones, Det.1,1331801,3136
200424Steven Jackson, St.L.6731898624
200426• Chris Perry, Cin.133340
200630Joseph Addai, Ind.1,0813251,4068
200621Laurence Maroney, N.E.7451949397
200627DeAngelo Williams, Car.5013138142
200824Chris Johnson, Tenn.1,2282601,48810
200822Felix Jones, Dall.266102764
200823• Rashard Mendenhall, Pitt.5817750
200931Beanie Wells, Ariz.7931439367
200927Donald Brown, Ind.2811694503
201030Jahvid Best, Det.5554871,0326
201128Mark Ingram, N.O.474465205
201231Doug Martin, T.B.1,4544721,92612
201232David Wilson, NYG358343925
201831Sony Michel, N.E.931509816
201827Rashaad Penny, Sea.419754942

For comparison’s sake, I’ll put up the earlier first-round guys, and you’ll see the big stat difference. With these 23, they averaged 1,152 total yards and 7 TDs in their first season. With the 24 second-half-of-the-first-round guys, they averaged only 672 yards in their first year, with just 4 TDs.

RUNNING BACKS, FIRST HALF OF FIRST ROUND
YearPkPlayerRunRecTotTD
20005Jamal Lewis, Balt.1,3642961,6606
20007Thomas Jones, Ariz.3732085812
200011Ron Dayne, NYG770117815
20015LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.1,2363671,60310
200216William Green, Clev.8871131,0006
20052Ronnie Brown, Mia.9072321,1395
20054Cedric Benson, Chi.27232750
20055Cadillac Williams, T.B.1,178811,2596
20062Reggie Bush, N.O.5657421,3079
20077Adrian Peterson, Minn.1,3412681,60913
200712Marshawn Lynch, Buff.1,1151841,2997
20084Darren McFadden, Oak.4992857844
200813Jonathan Stewart, Car.8364788310
200912Knowshon Moreno, Den.9472131,1609
20109C.J. Spiller, Buff.2831574401
201012Ryan Mathews, S.D.6781458237
20123Trent Richardson, Clev.9503671,31712
201510Todd Gurley, St.L.1,1061881,29410
201515Melvin Gordon, S.D.6411928330
20164Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.1,6313631,99416
20174Leonard Fournette, Jac.1,0403021,34210
20178Christian McCaffrey, Car.4356511,0867
20182Saquon Barkley, NYG1,3077212,02815

I’m not promising Jacobs will be a miss. I think he’ll start from Week 1, and I think they’ll give him every opportunity to succeed. He’s got some receiving ability. But I’m thinking it’s more likely he’ll be a modest success, sharing time with other backs. My expectation is that in most leagues, Jacobs will be selected by someone else before it gets down to me seriously considering him.

—Ian Allan