I’m not a big Josh Jacobs fan. He’ll be a starter, and I suppose that makes him one of the first 20 running backs who should be drafted in a typical fantasy draft. But I don’t think he’ll hit it big.
Jacobs doesn’t have great measurables. He’s a 4.6 guy. Of all running backs who’ve been selected in the first round in this century, only two ran at the combine and didn’t run faster than 4.60 – William Green (whom many won’t even remember) and Mark Ingram.
Jacobs wasn’t special or heavily used at Alabama. The other main back in that offense, Damien Harris, actually ran for more yards and finished with a better yards-per-attempt average in each of the last three years. As good as Jacobs is supposed to be, he averaged only 5.3 yards per carry last year. There are a lot of college running backs who would like their chances of averaging 5.3 while running behind Alabama’s NFL factory offensive line.
Ultimately, to me, when a back is special and everyone knows it, he gets selected early in the first round. Guys like Saquon Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott in recent years. Jacobs isn’t that kind of a prospect. Instead, he was a late first-round pick, and the instant hit rate with those guys goes way down.
In this century, 24 running backs have been selected in the second half of the first round. Only four of those guys went over 1,000 yards in their first year. A greater number (six) failed to run for even 100 yards in their first year.
RUNNING BACKS, SECOND HALF OF FIRST ROUND | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Pk | Player | Run | Rec | Tot | TD |
2000 | 19 | Shaun Alexander, Sea. | 313 | 41 | 354 | 2 |
2000 | 31 | • Trung Canidate, St.L. | 6 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
2001 | 27 | Michael Bennett, Minn. | 682 | 226 | 908 | 3 |
2001 | 23 | • Deuce McAllister, N.O. | 91 | 166 | 257 | 2 |
2002 | 18 | T.J. Duckett, Atl. | 507 | 61 | 568 | 4 |
2003 | 27 | • Larry Johnson, K.C. | 85 | 2 | 87 | 1 |
2003 | 23 | • Willis McGahee, Buff. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2004 | 30 | Kevin Jones, Det. | 1,133 | 180 | 1,313 | 6 |
2004 | 24 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 673 | 189 | 862 | 4 |
2004 | 26 | • Chris Perry, Cin. | 1 | 33 | 34 | 0 |
2006 | 30 | Joseph Addai, Ind. | 1,081 | 325 | 1,406 | 8 |
2006 | 21 | Laurence Maroney, N.E. | 745 | 194 | 939 | 7 |
2006 | 27 | DeAngelo Williams, Car. | 501 | 313 | 814 | 2 |
2008 | 24 | Chris Johnson, Tenn. | 1,228 | 260 | 1,488 | 10 |
2008 | 22 | Felix Jones, Dall. | 266 | 10 | 276 | 4 |
2008 | 23 | • Rashard Mendenhall, Pitt. | 58 | 17 | 75 | 0 |
2009 | 31 | Beanie Wells, Ariz. | 793 | 143 | 936 | 7 |
2009 | 27 | Donald Brown, Ind. | 281 | 169 | 450 | 3 |
2010 | 30 | Jahvid Best, Det. | 555 | 487 | 1,032 | 6 |
2011 | 28 | Mark Ingram, N.O. | 474 | 46 | 520 | 5 |
2012 | 31 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 1,454 | 472 | 1,926 | 12 |
2012 | 32 | David Wilson, NYG | 358 | 34 | 392 | 5 |
2018 | 31 | Sony Michel, N.E. | 931 | 50 | 981 | 6 |
2018 | 27 | Rashaad Penny, Sea. | 419 | 75 | 494 | 2 |
For comparison’s sake, I’ll put up the earlier first-round guys, and you’ll see the big stat difference. With these 23, they averaged 1,152 total yards and 7 TDs in their first season. With the 24 second-half-of-the-first-round guys, they averaged only 672 yards in their first year, with just 4 TDs.
RUNNING BACKS, FIRST HALF OF FIRST ROUND | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Pk | Player | Run | Rec | Tot | TD |
2000 | 5 | Jamal Lewis, Balt. | 1,364 | 296 | 1,660 | 6 |
2000 | 7 | Thomas Jones, Ariz. | 373 | 208 | 581 | 2 |
2000 | 11 | Ron Dayne, NYG | 770 | 11 | 781 | 5 |
2001 | 5 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 1,236 | 367 | 1,603 | 10 |
2002 | 16 | William Green, Clev. | 887 | 113 | 1,000 | 6 |
2005 | 2 | Ronnie Brown, Mia. | 907 | 232 | 1,139 | 5 |
2005 | 4 | Cedric Benson, Chi. | 272 | 3 | 275 | 0 |
2005 | 5 | Cadillac Williams, T.B. | 1,178 | 81 | 1,259 | 6 |
2006 | 2 | Reggie Bush, N.O. | 565 | 742 | 1,307 | 9 |
2007 | 7 | Adrian Peterson, Minn. | 1,341 | 268 | 1,609 | 13 |
2007 | 12 | Marshawn Lynch, Buff. | 1,115 | 184 | 1,299 | 7 |
2008 | 4 | Darren McFadden, Oak. | 499 | 285 | 784 | 4 |
2008 | 13 | Jonathan Stewart, Car. | 836 | 47 | 883 | 10 |
2009 | 12 | Knowshon Moreno, Den. | 947 | 213 | 1,160 | 9 |
2010 | 9 | C.J. Spiller, Buff. | 283 | 157 | 440 | 1 |
2010 | 12 | Ryan Mathews, S.D. | 678 | 145 | 823 | 7 |
2012 | 3 | Trent Richardson, Clev. | 950 | 367 | 1,317 | 12 |
2015 | 10 | Todd Gurley, St.L. | 1,106 | 188 | 1,294 | 10 |
2015 | 15 | Melvin Gordon, S.D. | 641 | 192 | 833 | 0 |
2016 | 4 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 1,631 | 363 | 1,994 | 16 |
2017 | 4 | Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 1,040 | 302 | 1,342 | 10 |
2017 | 8 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 435 | 651 | 1,086 | 7 |
2018 | 2 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 1,307 | 721 | 2,028 | 15 |
I’m not promising Jacobs will be a miss. I think he’ll start from Week 1, and I think they’ll give him every opportunity to succeed. He’s got some receiving ability. But I’m thinking it’s more likely he’ll be a modest success, sharing time with other backs. My expectation is that in most leagues, Jacobs will be selected by someone else before it gets down to me seriously considering him.
—Ian Allan