Discussing the dynasty outlook for N'Keal Harry yesterday, a reader spoke disparagingly of the history of late first-round wideouts. Which got me wondering if it as bad as suggested. Taking a look at the last 20 years, well, it isn't great.
I pulled out the numbers for all wide receivers drafted late in the first round -- I chose picks 20-32, or 31 for a couple of those years -- since 2000. Shown are their rookie year receiving numbers, and not surprisingly those haven't been great. One 1,000-yard guy, and just five even making it to 800 yards.
| LATE FIRST-ROUND WRS (PICKS 20-UP), 2000-PRESENT | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | No | Yds | TD |
| 2014 | 28 | Kelvin Benjamin, Car. | 73 | 1008 | 9 |
| 2007 | 23 | Dwayne Bowe, K.C. | 70 | 995 | 5 |
| 2006 | 25 | Santonio Holmes, Pitt. | 49 | 824 | 3 |
| 2018 | 26 | Calvin Ridley, Atl. | 64 | 821 | 10 |
| 2013 | 27 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 52 | 802 | 2 |
| 2009 | 22 | Percy Harvin, Minn. | 60 | 790 | 8 |
| 2009 | 29 | Hakeem Nicks, NYG | 47 | 790 | 6 |
| 2018 | 24 | D.J. Moore, Car. | 55 | 788 | 2 |
| 2009 | 30 | Kenny Britt, Tenn. | 42 | 701 | 3 |
| 2000 | 21 | Sylvester Morris, K.C. | 48 | 678 | 3 |
| 2016 | 21 | Will Fuller, Hou. | 47 | 635 | 3 |
| 2012 | 20 | Kendall Wright, Tenn. | 64 | 626 | 4 |
| 2007 | 32 | Anthony Gonzalez, Ind. | 37 | 576 | 3 |
| 2010 | 24 | Dez Bryant, Dall. | 45 | 561 | 8 |
| 2014 | 20 | Brandin Cooks, N.O. | 53 | 550 | 4 |
| 2005 | 22 | Mark Clayton, Balt. | 44 | 471 | 3 |
| 2013 | 29 | Cordarrelle Patterson, Minn. | 45 | 469 | 9 |
| 2005 | 27 | Roddy White, Atl. | 29 | 446 | 3 |
| 2005 | 21 | Matt Jones, Jac. | 36 | 432 | 5 |
| 2001 | 30 | Reggie Wayne, Ind. | 27 | 345 | 0 |
| 2002 | 20 | Javon Walker, G.B. | 23 | 319 | 1 |
| 2015 | 20 | Nelson Agholor, Phil. | 23 | 283 | 1 |
| 2010 | 22 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 22 | 283 | 2 |
| 2001 | 25 | Freddie Mitchell, Phil. | 21 | 283 | 1 |
| 2011 | 26 | Jon Baldwin, K.C. | 21 | 254 | 1 |
| 2015 | 29 | Phillip Dorsett, Ind. | 18 | 225 | 1 |
| 2007 | 30 | Craig Davis, S.D. | 20 | 188 | 1 |
| 2004 | 31 | Rashaun Woods, S.F. | 7 | 160 | 1 |
| 2000 | 29 | R. Jay Soward, Jac. | 14 | 154 | 1 |
| 2004 | 29 | Michael Jenkins, Atl. | 7 | 119 | 0 |
| 2016 | 22 | Josh Doctson, Wash. | 2 | 66 | 0 |
| 2016 | 23 | Laquon Treadwell, Minn. | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| 2015 | 26 | Breshad Perriman, Balt. | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2007 | 27 | Robert Meachem, N.O. | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2012 | 30 | A.J. Jenkins, S.F. | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2019 | 25 | Marquise Brown, Balt. | ? | ? | ? |
| 2019 | 32 | N'Keal Harry, N.E. | ? | ? | ? |
But forgetting rookie numbers alone, which are often poor for rookie receivers, what about their careers? How many of the guys on this list would be drafted in the first round again? Those are the players listed in bold in the table.
I count 11 out of 35, which is about 30 percent, and I think I'm being reasonable. I decided to sign off early on Calvin Ridley, and I included some guys who had a couple or three good seasons but not superstars (Bowe, Nicks, Harvin). No on Kenny Britt, and I'm not ready to call D.J. Moore a hit, although perhaps I should. Will Fuller was another tough one -- talented guy, but can he put together a healthy season at some point? He's missed 17 of 32 games over the last two seasons.
What I thought was especially interesting was that nearly all the guys who hit put up solid numbers as rookies. Of my 11, six had at least 790 receiving yards in their first seasons. Only three (Roddy White, Reggie Wayne and Demaryius Thomas) were under 500. Which says to me that if Harry and Brown are going to be successful pros, they'll likely need to put up decent numbers right out of the gate. The guys who didn't generally fizzled out.
We've talked a little about Brown, a DeSean Jackson type deep threat who should be able to get behind defenses on a regular basis. But can Lamar Jackson hit him on those kind of plays? He had no luck with John Brown last year (Brown was having a nice season until Jackson replaced Joe Flacco). That's not a landing spot I'm excited about.
Harry goes to a New England offense that's notoriously complex. New England has a lot of targets to replace (Rob Gronkowski, Chris Hogan, perhaps Josh Gordon), but there's an outside chance Gordon is able to play, and the Patriots will still send the majority of passes to short-range options like Julian Edelman and James White, plus whoever they decide to have at tight end (Austin Seferian-Jenkins, or maybe another veteran they bring in).
Bottom line: the history of late first-rounders and the fact that most of those guys show something early, if at all, isn't a great sign for Harry and Brown.
At 6-foot-2 and 228 pounds, Harry is a big, friendly target who put up strong numbers at Arizona State: 73-plus catches, 8-9 TDs and over 1,000 yards in each of the last two years. He's particularly good at making contested grabs. That hasn't really been the way the Patriots offense works; it moves guys around to get somebody wide open, giving Tom Brady some easy looks. I like Harry, but I'm not sure it's a great fit. Not overly excited about selecting him near the top of a rookie draft.
--Andy Richardson