NFL teams aren't infallible, that much is certain. But very, very rarely do they let great quarterbacks slip out of the first round of the draft. That's a bad indicator for Drew Lock being successful as Denver's next franchise quarterback.
We know that it happens. Russell Wilson was a third-round pick, probably because of the gradually fading height bias. But that's the exception that proves the rule.
In fact, the last 20 years have produced about as many franchise quarterbacks in the sixth round of the draft (Tom Brady) as the second round. Since Drew Brees way back in 2001, there have been way more bad second-round quarterbacks than good.
| SECOND-ROUND QUARTERBACKS, 2000-PRESENT | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | School | Result |
| 2019 | 42 | Drew Lock, Den. | Missouri | ? |
| 2017 | 52 | DeShone Kizer, Clev. | Notre Dame | Bust |
| 2016 | 51 | Christian Hackenberg, NYJ | Penn State | Bust |
| 2014 | 36 | Derek Carr, Oak. | Fresno State | Good |
| 2014 | 62 | Jimmy Garoppolo, N.E. | Eastern Illinois | Good? |
| 2013 | 39 | Geno Smith, NYJ | West Virginia | Bust |
| 2012 | 57 | Brock Osweiler, Den. | Arizona State | Bust |
| 2011 | 35 | Andy Dalton, Cin. | Texas Christian | Good |
| 2011 | 36 | Colin Kaepernick, S.F. | Nevada | Good |
| 2010 | 48 | Jimmy Clausen, Car. | Notre Dame | Bust |
| 2009 | 44 | Pat White, Mia. | West Virginia | Bust |
| 2008 | 56 | Brian Brohm, G.B. | Louisville | Bust |
| 2008 | 57 | Chad Henne, Mia. | Michigan | Bust |
| 2007 | 36 | Kevin Kolb, Phil. | Houston | Bust |
| 2007 | 40 | John Beck, Mia. | Brigham Young | Bust |
| 2007 | 43 | Drew Stanton, Det. | Michigan State | Bust |
| 2006 | 49 | Kellen Clemens, NYJ | Oregon | Bust |
| 2006 | 64 | Tarvaris Jackson, Minn. | Alabama State | Bust |
| 2001 | 32 | Drew Brees, S.D. | Purdue | Great |
| 2001 | 53 | Quincy Carter, Dall. | Georgia | Bust |
| 2001 | 59 | Marques Tuiasosopo, Oak. | Washington | Bust |
Other than Brees, even the good ones in that timeframe have left you wanting a little bit more. Andy Dalton has generally been a success, but the Bengals haven't won a playoff game with him. Derek Carr has seemingly already played his best football, leaving Jon Gruden probably wanting a little more. Colin Kaepernick took the 49ers to the Super Bowl, but his star had faded even before the controversy really began. Too early to say, I think, on Jimmy Garoppolo.
Lock has some things going for him, which is why he was in the discussion to be a first-round selection. Big, athletic (he'll run some), and strong-armed. But his accuracy is shaky (57 percent completions, though his best year was his last, at 63 percent; he improved). He notably struggled in games against top opponents (and now they'll all be top opponents). And he fell to the second round.
I'm participating in a rookie draft this weekend. I don't imagine I'll be selecting Lock.
--Andy Richardson