In a lot of early drafts I've seen Emmanuel Sanders selected way earlier than I'd consider him. He's 32 years old and coming back from a torn Achilles, and that's an injury where a full recovery can't be assumed. Seems like Courtland Sutton should be viewed a lot more favorably.
A story yesterday indicated Sanders isn't expected to return from his injury until "around the start of training camp in mid-July." That's a vague enough timeline as to be totally worthless -- more realistically, nobody really knows if and when Sanders will be fully healthy. It was telling when in another recent story Sanders said he's not ahead of schedule on his rehab, but not behind it, either. Players routinely say they're ahead of schedule, so not committing to that optimism is meaningful.
Denver drafted Courtland Sutton in the second round a year ago, and was comfortable enough with his promise that they got rid of Demaryius Thomas during the season. A year later, Sutton looks like the best bet in Denver's receiving corps.
As a rookie, he caught 42 passes for 704 yards, averaging almost 17 yards per catch. Nearly 40 percent of his receptions went for over 20 yards. Among the wideouts to catch 30 passes last season, that was the highest rate in the league. A lot of big-play ability there.
| WIDE RECEIVERS, 20-YARD RECEPTIONS, 2018 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | 20+ | Pct/20 |
| Courtland Sutton, Den. | 42 | 704 | 16.8 | 4 | 16 | 38.1% |
| DeSean Jackson, T.B. | 41 | 774 | 18.9 | 4 | 13 | 31.7% |
| Chris Hogan, N.E. | 35 | 532 | 15.2 | 3 | 11 | 31.4% |
| Tyreek Hill, K.C. | 87 | 1479 | 17.0 | 12 | 27 | 31.0% |
| Michael Gallup, Dall. | 33 | 507 | 15.4 | 2 | 10 | 30.3% |
| Mike Evans, T.B. | 86 | 1524 | 17.7 | 8 | 26 | 30.2% |
| Josh Gordon, N.E. | 40 | 720 | 18.0 | 3 | 12 | 30.0% |
| Tyler Lockett, Sea. | 57 | 965 | 16.9 | 10 | 17 | 29.8% |
| T.Y. Hilton, Ind. | 76 | 1270 | 16.7 | 6 | 22 | 28.9% |
| Rashard Higgins, Clev. | 39 | 572 | 14.7 | 4 | 11 | 28.2% |
| Tyler Boyd, Cin. | 76 | 1028 | 13.5 | 7 | 21 | 27.6% |
| Brandin Cooks, LAR | 80 | 1204 | 15.1 | 5 | 22 | 27.5% |
| Kenny Golladay, Det. | 70 | 1063 | 15.2 | 5 | 19 | 27.1% |
| Tyrell Williams, LAC | 41 | 653 | 15.9 | 5 | 11 | 26.8% |
| John Brown, Balt. | 42 | 715 | 17.0 | 5 | 11 | 26.2% |
| A.J. Green, Cin. | 46 | 694 | 15.1 | 6 | 12 | 26.1% |
| Mike Williams, LAC | 43 | 664 | 15.4 | 10 | 11 | 25.6% |
| Robert Woods, LAR | 86 | 1219 | 14.2 | 6 | 20 | 23.3% |
| Corey Davis, Tenn. | 65 | 891 | 13.7 | 4 | 15 | 23.1% |
| Dede Westbrook, Jac. | 66 | 717 | 10.9 | 5 | 15 | 22.7% |
| Cooper Kupp, LAR | 40 | 566 | 14.2 | 6 | 9 | 22.5% |
| Odell Beckham, NYG | 77 | 1052 | 13.7 | 6 | 17 | 22.1% |
| Will Fuller, Hou. | 32 | 503 | 15.7 | 4 | 7 | 21.9% |
| Julio Jones, Atl. | 113 | 1677 | 14.8 | 8 | 24 | 21.2% |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling, G.B. | 38 | 581 | 15.3 | 2 | 8 | 21.1% |
| Robby Anderson, NYJ | 50 | 752 | 15.0 | 6 | 10 | 20.0% |
| DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 115 | 1572 | 13.7 | 11 | 23 | 20.0% |
| Allen Robinson, Chi. | 55 | 754 | 13.7 | 4 | 11 | 20.0% |
| Kenny Stills, Mia. | 37 | 553 | 14.9 | 6 | 7 | 18.9% |
| Antonio Callaway, Clev. | 43 | 586 | 13.6 | 5 | 8 | 18.6% |
| Christian Kirk, Ariz. | 43 | 590 | 13.7 | 3 | 8 | 18.6% |
| Jarius Wright, Car. | 43 | 447 | 10.4 | 1 | 8 | 18.6% |
| Keelan Cole, Jac. | 38 | 491 | 12.9 | 1 | 7 | 18.4% |
| Emmanuel Sanders, Den. | 71 | 868 | 12.2 | 4 | 13 | 18.3% |
| Anthony Miller, Chi. | 33 | 423 | 12.8 | 7 | 6 | 18.2% |
| Sterling Shepard, NYG | 66 | 872 | 13.2 | 4 | 12 | 18.2% |
| Devin Funchess, Car. | 44 | 549 | 12.5 | 4 | 8 | 18.2% |
| Doug Baldwin, Sea. | 50 | 618 | 12.4 | 5 | 9 | 18.0% |
| Sammy Watkins, K.C. | 40 | 519 | 13.0 | 3 | 7 | 17.5% |
| Calvin Ridley, Atl. | 64 | 821 | 12.8 | 10 | 11 | 17.2% |
| Chris Godwin, T.B. | 59 | 842 | 14.3 | 7 | 10 | 16.9% |
| D.J. Moore, Car. | 55 | 788 | 14.3 | 2 | 9 | 16.4% |
| Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 104 | 1297 | 12.5 | 15 | 17 | 16.3% |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt. | 111 | 1426 | 12.8 | 7 | 18 | 16.2% |
| Davante Adams, G.B. | 111 | 1386 | 12.5 | 13 | 18 | 16.2% |
| Julian Edelman, N.E. | 74 | 850 | 11.5 | 6 | 12 | 16.2% |
| Jarvis Landry, Clev. | 81 | 976 | 12.0 | 4 | 13 | 16.0% |
| Josh Doctson, Wash. | 44 | 532 | 12.1 | 2 | 7 | 15.9% |
| Quincy Enunwa, NYJ | 38 | 449 | 11.8 | 1 | 6 | 15.8% |
| Nelson Agholor, Phil. | 64 | 736 | 11.5 | 4 | 10 | 15.6% |
| Seth Roberts, Oak. | 45 | 494 | 11.0 | 2 | 7 | 15.6% |
| Curtis Samuel, Car. | 39 | 494 | 12.7 | 5 | 6 | 15.4% |
| Adam Thielen, Minn. | 113 | 1373 | 12.2 | 9 | 17 | 15.0% |
| Donte Moncrief, Jac. | 48 | 668 | 13.9 | 3 | 7 | 14.6% |
| Kendrick Bourne, S.F. | 42 | 487 | 11.6 | 4 | 6 | 14.3% |
| Marvin Jones, Det. | 35 | 508 | 14.5 | 5 | 5 | 14.3% |
| Alshon Jeffery, Phil. | 65 | 843 | 13.0 | 6 | 9 | 13.8% |
| Michael Thomas, N.O. | 125 | 1405 | 11.2 | 9 | 17 | 13.6% |
| Keenan Allen, LAC | 97 | 1196 | 12.3 | 6 | 13 | 13.4% |
| Stefon Diggs, Minn. | 102 | 1021 | 10.0 | 9 | 13 | 12.7% |
| Zay Jones, Buff. | 56 | 652 | 11.6 | 7 | 7 | 12.5% |
| Chris Conley, K.C. | 32 | 334 | 10.4 | 5 | 4 | 12.5% |
| Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 69 | 734 | 10.6 | 6 | 8 | 11.6% |
| Amari Cooper, Dall. | 53 | 725 | 13.7 | 6 | 6 | 11.3% |
| Jordy Nelson, Oak. | 63 | 739 | 11.7 | 3 | 7 | 11.1% |
| Michael Crabtree, Balt. | 54 | 607 | 11.2 | 3 | 6 | 11.1% |
| Mohamed Sanu, Atl. | 66 | 838 | 12.7 | 4 | 7 | 10.6% |
| Randall Cobb, G.B. | 38 | 383 | 10.1 | 2 | 4 | 10.5% |
| Taylor Gabriel, Chi. | 67 | 688 | 10.3 | 2 | 7 | 10.4% |
| Chester Rogers, Ind. | 53 | 485 | 9.2 | 2 | 5 | 9.4% |
| Adam Humphries, T.B. | 76 | 816 | 10.7 | 5 | 7 | 9.2% |
| Ryan Grant, Ind. | 35 | 334 | 9.5 | 1 | 3 | 8.6% |
| Taywan Taylor, Tenn. | 37 | 466 | 12.6 | 1 | 3 | 8.1% |
| Jermaine Kearse, NYJ | 37 | 371 | 10.0 | 1 | 3 | 8.1% |
| Willie Snead, Balt. | 62 | 651 | 10.5 | 1 | 5 | 8.1% |
| Danny Amendola, Mia. | 59 | 575 | 9.7 | 1 | 4 | 6.8% |
| Cole Beasley, Dall. | 65 | 672 | 10.3 | 3 | 3 | 4.6% |
| Golden Tate, Phil. | 30 | 278 | 9.3 | 1 | 1 | 3.3% |
| DaeSean Hamilton, Den. | 30 | 243 | 8.1 | 2 | 1 | 3.3% |
| Phillip Dorsett, N.E. | 32 | 290 | 9.1 | 3 | 1 | 3.1% |
| Laquon Treadwell, Minn. | 35 | 302 | 8.6 | 1 | 1 | 2.9% |
| Ryan Switzer, Pitt. | 36 | 253 | 7.0 | 1 | 1 | 2.8% |
Player fantasy value isn't tied to percent of 20-yard receptions, but a few things struck me from this table. One is the amount of big-play ability shown by Sutton even while working with a not-so-great quarterback in Case Keenum. He'll now be working with Joe Flacco, and note that Flacco had a nice connection with John Brown, who shows up in the top 15 of this list. Now it will be Flacco and Sutton, and I think it could be a nice connection.
Showing up down near the bottom is Denver's other second-year wideout, DaeSean Hamilton. Hamilton was just a fourth-rounder last year, but if Sanders has any setbacks, or difficulty bouncing back, he'll also be required to play significant snaps. If so, looks as if Sutton will be a better bet for bigger plays, Hamilton perhaps less downfield potential in the offense.
We'll see, but I know I'm going to be interested in drafting Sutton in fantasy leagues.
--Andy Richardson