I’m comfortable with my top 4 receivers. But then what? What receiver do you stick in that 5th spot.
For the first four, I like DeAndre Hopkins, Davante Adams, Michael Thomas and JuJu Smith-Schuster. I don’t think the order matters a lot. It can be debated, with a case made for any of them. I think they’ll all be good.
It’s down at No. 5 (I think) where it gets a little tricky. Whom do you plug into that spot.
Antonio Brown has been awesome for a lot of years. He’ll be 31 when camp opens and is playing on a new team. (One that’s quarterbacked by Derek Carr.) I think he might be my choice.
Odell Beckham can be in the discussion. But I’m not sure the Browns will get him enough balls.
Keenan Allen, I suppose. He’ll catch a ton of passes, but with limited speed, he doesn’t tend to contribute many long catches or score enough touchdowns.
And then there’s Julio Jones. He’s been great, but he’s on the other side of 30 now and has had a lot of issues with his feet. And Jones typically tends to come up short around the goal line, with lesser touchdown numbers.
Over the past three years, 37 wide receivers have seen at least 16 targets inside the 10. Only one of those receivers has scored on a lower percentage of targets than Jones. (That would be Jermaine Kearse, and he’s not even in the league right now). Jones in that part of the field has caught only 10 of the last 25 passes thrown his way, with only 5 TDs. I’m not confident that will change, especially with the Falcons having plenty of other options to use in that part of the field.
| RECEIVING INSIDE THE 10 (2016-18) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Att | Rec | TD | 2Pt | EZ% |
| Davante Adams, G.B. | 28 | 18 | 14 | 2 | 57% |
| Cole Beasley, Dall. | 16 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 56% |
| Jordy Nelson, GB-Oak | 29 | 21 | 15 | 1 | 55% |
| Stefon Diggs, Min. | 17 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 53% |
| Alshon Jeffery, Chi-Phi | 23 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 52% |
| Mohamed Sanu, Atl. | 22 | 14 | 9 | 2 | 50% |
| Michael Thomas, N.O. | 35 | 26 | 17 | 0 | 49% |
| Michael Crabtree, Oak-Bal | 29 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 48% |
| Jarvis Landry, Mia-Cle | 28 | 21 | 12 | 1 | 46% |
| Mike Evans, T.B. | 29 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 45% |
| Brandon LaFell, Cin-Oak | 16 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 44% |
| Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 30 | 14 | 12 | 1 | 43% |
| Devin Funchess, Car. | 17 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 41% |
| Sterling Shepard, NYG | 22 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 41% |
| Doug Baldwin, Sea. | 23 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 39% |
| B.Cooks, N.O.-N.E.-LAR | 21 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 38% |
| DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 32 | 15 | 12 | 0 | 38% |
| Demaryius Thomas, Den-Hou | 27 | 14 | 9 | 1 | 37% |
| A.J. Green, Cin. | 19 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 37% |
| Adam Thielen, Min. | 22 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 36% |
| Keenan Allen, LAC | 22 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 32% |
| Nelson Agholor, Phil. | 19 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 32% |
| Golden Tate, Det-Phi | 16 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 31% |
| K.Benjamin, Car.-Buf.-KC | 16 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 31% |
| Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 26 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 31% |
| T.Y. Hilton, Ind. | 23 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 30% |
| Marvin Jones, Det. | 23 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 30% |
| Emmanuel Sanders, Den. | 21 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 29% |
| Allen Robinson, Jac-Chi | 18 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 28% |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt. | 18 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 28% |
| Chris Godwin, T.B. | 18 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 28% |
| Amari Cooper, Oak-Dal | 26 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 27% |
| Dez Bryant, Dall. | 19 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 26% |
| Julian Edelman, N.E. | 21 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 24% |
| Chris Hogan, N.E. | 17 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 24% |
| Julio Jones, Atl. | 25 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 20% |
| Jermaine Kearse, Sea-NYJ | 17 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 12% |
—Ian Allan