Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. Special summer kickoff version. Will Jameis Winston lead the league in passing yards? Is Arizona's passing offense for real? Starting two quarterbacks. And how long until Ryan Tannehill moves past Marcus Mariota?
Question 1
Jameis Winston is getting around 18-1 to throw for the most passing yards. Where are you projecting him versus other QBs in that category?
Andrew Beach (Toronto, ON)
I would be interested in seeing the odds for Matt Ryan. There are three others than I think are in the discussion – Andrew Luck, Patrick Mahomes and Ben Roethlisberger – but I consider Ryan to be the favorite. He’s got the nice trio of receivers, a solid pass-catching tight ends, and running backs who are capable receivers out of the backfield. On my board, I have Ryan averaging 15 passing yards per game more than any other quarterback. I have 14 other starting quarterbacks averaging over 250 yards per game. With Tampa Bay having lost Adam Humphries and DeSean Jackson and going to a new offense, I don’t expect them to pass as often this year. If Winston stays in the starting lineup for all 16 games, he’ll finish in the top 10 in passing yards, but I don’t think he’s super likely to finish all the way up in the No. 1 spot.
| PASSING YARDS PER GAME | ||
|---|---|---|
| Player | 2018 | Proj |
| Matt Ryan | 308 | 302 |
| Andrew Luck | 287 | 287 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 321 | 284 |
| Jared Goff | 293 | 282 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 319 | 282 |
| Jameis Winston | 294 | 277 |
| Philip Rivers | 269 | 272 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 278 | 271 |
| Baker Mayfield | 271 | 271 |
| Drew Brees | 266 | 270 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 239 | 269 |
| Tom Brady | 272 | 269 |
| Deshaun Watson | 260 | 264 |
| Carson Wentz | 279 | 262 |
| Derek Carr | 253 | 259 |
Question 2
Long time supporter of the Index and throughout the years, the Index has identified under the radar players that were being ignored by the fantasy community. My personal favorite was Alfred Morris back in 2012. With that being said, I was shocked how low you're on the Arizona Cardinals offense in comparison to your peers. Let's start with Kyler Murray. You had a great article on April 10th highlighting running QBs and how those who had 5 rushing points per game and ranked in the top 20 in passing all finished in the top 9 in fantasy scoring per game at the position. I see that you gave him an injury discount, which is fair, but even on a points per game basis, he still only ranks as the 15th best QB. It's hard for me to believe that a QB in an up tempo pass-first offense that will be playing a last-place schedule is not going to rank in the top 20 in passing. Per the magazine, Murray's per game passing statistical output is comparable to Matthew Stafford who has a defensive minded coach and a run-first offensive coordinator. You need to add at least 20 more passing yards per game which in turn will increase the points per game for all the other skill positions as well (including David Johnson who you're criminally low on). Final correction I would like to make is that the write up on Hakeem Butler is incorrect. He doesn't have limited speed. Butler ran a 4.48 at the combine. That's incredibly fast for a man his size. When you factor in height adjusted speed, he ranks in the upper percentile. Butler fell in the draft due to drops (his drop rate was one of the worst of the incoming prospects at 15%) and his late collegiate breakout. In 2017, he was outplayed by Allen Lazard out of all people who wasn't even drafted by the NFL. There's a strong positive correlation between early collegiate breakouts and NFL production. Well that's my rant on the Arizona Cardinals. Hopefully we'll see a correction in the July 22nd cheat sheet update because I don't want the Index to go through another Tatum Bell apocalypse.
Cody Hager (Portland, OR)
Hager bringing the hot take hard, like he always does. I like Murray. I wouldn’t mind at all having him as my second quarterback. I like guys with pass-run ability. But the quarterback position is overloaded this year. If you want to rank Murray in your top dozen (or whatever you’re proposing) you have to slot him ahead of some guys like Rivers, Cousins, Brady, Winston, Garoppolo. I’m not ready to do that. As for Hakeem Butler, I’m not confident right now that he’ll even be one of the top 3 wide receivers on his own team. They’ve got Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk coming back, and they selected Andy Isabella earlier in the draft. I don’t consider a 4.48 to be a selling point. There have been 29 wide receivers selected with first-round picks in the last 10 years, and Butler ran faster than only eight of them. For fantasy purposes, he looks like a last-round flyer kind of pick to me right now.
Question 3
I won so many fantasy games with Atlanta’s run and shoot offense that my team retired Andre Rison’s number. Is the Air Raid offense a return to those days? The formations and concepts sure look similar. Do you know what the differences are, and do you expect it to have the same impact and limitations? Thanks as always!
Bill Rehor (Culver City, CA)
Clever idea. I’m not sure exactly what Kliff Kingsbury has in mind. I have read that it will be a simple system, making it easier for both the quarterback and the wide receivers. I worry about pass protection, especially if they’re not using a tight end. The offensive line doesn’t have great personnel (it was arguably the worst in the league last year). I’m not ready to sign on yet for the assumption that Arizona will put up even average passing numbers. There are a lot of good offenses out there. (If you retired Rison’s number, does that mean your fantasy team no longer selects wide receivers that wear No. 80?)
Question 4
How do the magazine depth charts come to be made?
Craig Leedy (Sacramento, CA)
That’s the order in which we would select the players at each position on each team. It does not always match the order of the team’s official depth chart. With Washington’s quarterbacks, for example, Case Keenum probably will be their first-string quarterback when training camp opens, but we’re ranking Dwayne Haskins higher – we’re expecting he’ll post better numbers.
Question 5
Thanks again Ian and team. I’ve used your product for the 17 years of our 8-man league. In that time, I have 6 championships, including 3 of the last 4. For our 18th season, we are incorporating a major rule change - going to 2 starting QBs. So starting lineup is now 2QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1 Flex, 1D, 1K. Our current scoring system is a bit unconventional. 5.5 PTs for pass TD, 6.5 for rush TD, 7.5 for rec TD. 1.25 per 25 passing yds, 1.25 per 10 yds rush or rec. No PPR. How would you recommend we adjust scoring for QB for 2QB?
Gavin Domm (San Francisco, CA)
I like the idea of using two starting quarterbacks, especially in an eight-team league. If you have just one starter, it becomes a throwaway position, with teams able to pick up a pair of decent quarterbacks in the late rounds. If you move to each team starting two (and also needing at least one backup) it will enhance the value of the position, with those guys rightfully going much sooner in drafts. With one starting quarterback, a bunch of quarterbacks like Matthew Stafford, Derek Carr, Andy Dalton, Sam Darnold and Nick Foles won’t even be drafted. When you move to two starters, those kind of quarterbacks will have to be drafted as the primary backup for fantasy teams. The exact scoring system doesn’t matter so much; quarterbacks will be more coveted.
Question 6
I could be totally wrong with this but it’s my belief that Tennessee would fare better with Tannehill as the starting QB. If he indeed is named the starter, do his WRs move up in the rankings or down, or are they similar?
James Costello (Portland, ME)
Tannessee Titans. I like the sound of that. Those quarterbacks to me look pretty comparable. Would not surprise me at all if they at some point pull the plug on Marcus Mariota, hoping Tannehill gives them a spark.
Question 7
I'm in a PPR dynasty league that allows TEs to be used in the flex position. Am I wrong to be seriously considering T.J. Hockenson at pick 1.03? There's not much chance of trading down. With scarcity of production at the position, I see TE as a premium spot. That is, it's much easier to find a free-agent RB or WR who can be plugged into a lineup than it is a TE. If Hockenson is not the guy at 1.03, in your opinion, who is?
Geoff Maleman (Los Angeles, CA)
I disagree with the premise that it’s easier to find a plug-in running back or wide receiver. Fantasy teams tend to start 2-3 players at those positions, versus just one at tight end. So when you’re looking at the significant players (starters and key backups for fantasy teams) I think you’ll looking at about 50 wide receivers and 40 running backs, but only about 17 tight ends. If a tight end comes from outside the top 20 and plays well, that’s a player who potentially might come from off the waiver wire. Also factor in that tight ends don’t tend to make much of an impact in their first year. But I will concede that the crappiness of this rookie class makes him a candidate. There isn’t a lot of choice talent sitting there. Josh Jacobs will go No. 1. Then, I think you’re kind of stuck. Kyler Murray looks kind of appealing, but he plays a lesser position for fantasy purposes. At running back, you’re down to hoping for a modest talent to outperform expectations – Miles Sanders, David Montgomery, Damien Harris, Devin Singletary. At wide receiver, you’ve got a half-dozen good prospects but nobody who looks certain to crank out a bunch of top-15 seasons. I suppose the two first-round tight ends can be part of that discussion, though I’m not a huge fan of either Hockenson or Noah Fant. If I had pick 1.03, I would be exploring trading down. That might include mulling whether to trade for a first-round pick in next year’s draft.
Question 8
When do you start taking submissions for the Fantasy Index Open ? Is there a way to get an email reminder so we don't miss it?
Zach Nizolek (Kansas City, MO)
With the Fantasy Index Open, picks are due before the start of the first full week of the preseason. That’s 7 p.m. (eastern time) on August 8.
Question 9
Dynasty with a TD heavy emphasis. How would you rank these WRs among DJ Moore, Chris Godwin and Robby Anderson?
HOWIE FISHMAN (Hermosa Beach, CA)
I like all three of them. Godwin the most. With Adam Humphries and DeSean Jackson, Tampa Bay has a cleaner, more traditional group of wide receivers now. It’s going to be Mike Evans and Godwin doing most of the heavy listing. Bruce Arians speculated early in the offseason that Godwin will never come off the field, play in the slot a ton and maybe catch 100 passes. It would not surprise me if he finishes with top-10 numbers.
Question 10
With AB going to the Raiders.What kind of production do you see him getting? I cannot see him put the same or better numbers with the Raiders. They had Cooper and did not feed him the ball .Will it be different with AB? Will he be happy catching 80-900-8 and the team going 5-11 or 6-10?
Bruce Sadler (Lakeland, FL)
I don’t think it’s realistic to expect the same kind of numbers. Brown and Ben Roethlisberger apparently didn’t like each other, but they had built a good on-field rapport over the years. I don’t think Derek Carr will be as effective getting him the ball – especially on deep passes and in the red zone. I’ve got Brown as the No. 5 receiver on my board, jostling for that spot with guys like Julio Jones, Odell Beckham and Keenan Allen – on my board, definitely behind the top 4 wide receivers.
Question 11
Hello, your very early ideas. I am in a 12-man standard league. I have the 10th and 15th picks. I realize all the top backs will be gone and I am not a fan of Connor, Gurley or Bell. Maybe Bell in 2nd rd. So, that I need to choose WR. Adams and Hopkins could be gone, if not I would choose one of them at 10. If not I am considering Jones or Odell? Your thoughts. Also, at 15 should I go Brown, or another wr or go to Mixon?
Jim Venettis (Farmington, MI)
If I got teleported into your league, I would be thinking about selecting Travis Kelce with the 10th pick. I’m confident he would give you a big edge over the vast majority of the other tight ends. I’d be thinking about Davante Adams. And I like James Conner more than you do.
Question 12
I'm in a league where we can keep one player. All along I was going to keep Mahomes with a 10th round pick, but the situation in KC combined with your recent predictions for Mahomes has tempered my enthusiasm a bit. It's a PPR league where QBs get 6 points for touchdowns. My other options are Kamara at the end of the first or either JuJu or Chubb at the end of round 3. I'm still learning towards Mahomes but as there are so many good QB I was curious what you think.
Alex Konop (Northport, NY)
On these kind of decisions, you have to weigh the value of the draft picks you’re losing. In a PPR league, I would select Kamara or Smith-Schuster before Mahomes. But if the cost of protecting Mahomes is only a 10th-round pick, he’s definitely the best option.
Question 13
10-team, 3-keeper, 1 point PPR league requiring 2 starting RBs and 3 starting WRs. I'll be keeping Davante Adams and Julio Jones. I'm torn between David Johnson and T.Y. Hilton. I won last year (thank you Index) so I will be drafting last every round in a non-snaking draft.
Eric Hachlinski (Bloomfield Hills, MI)
I’m not a big Johnson fan. I’ve got him down at 15th among running backs. We’ve got that Experts Poll in the magazine, and all 20 of the guys in that competition ranked Johnson higher than where I have him. (All but one of them rank him in the top 10). So if you asked them, they’d say it’s an easy call Johnson over Hilton. How I have the players graded, I have Johnson (in the overall) worth just a little more. I think Hilton will score slightly more points, but Johnson plays the harder to fill position. In your case, with you having two other elite receivers locked up, it makes even more to protect Johnson, giving you more flexibility when you’re making your first pick in the draft. (If you keep Hilton, you’re kind of locked into selecting a running back with your first choice.)