The Buffalo Bills are a trendy pick to make a nice leap up this season, and it's certainly possible. They've got an intriguing young quarterback, and they added some talent in free agency and via the draft. But it's difficult to get behind selecting many (any?) Bills in fantasy leagues.
Particularly at running back, where the team has assembled a room of players whose best years are likely behind them. Frank Gore is 36. LeSean McCoy turns 31 in July. T.J. Yeldon is comparatively young (25), but didn't attract a lot of interest in free agency -- hard to seem him as many more than complementary back, if he makes the team at all (Buffalo also drafted Devin Singletary in the third round).
McCoy expects to be the lead back, but probably Gore feels the same way. Yeldon, for his part, sees a "heated competition" in training camp. Supposedly Gore, McCoy and Singletary are all getting first-team reps.
"It's going to be a heated competition," says Yeldon. "That's one thing they told me coming in. There's going to be competition regardless.”
The threat of multiple running backs being involved -- some might say likelihood -- makes it difficult to select any of them with more than a late-round flier. Each of these guys can play, but none of the veterans really helped fantasy teams last season.
There were 45 running backs (starters or having sizable roles in at least seven games) who averaged at least 6.5 fantasy points per game a year ago. That's in a scoring system with 1 point for every 10 run/rec yards and 6 for touchdowns. Buffalo now has three of those guys. But none of them averaged 10 per game.
| RUNNING BACK FANTASY POINTS PER GAME, 2018 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | St | Run | Rec | Total | TD | FPG |
| Todd Gurley, LAR | 14 | 89.4 | 41.4 | 130.8 | 1.50 | 22.1 |
| Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 11 | 74.9 | 34.4 | 109.3 | 1.27 | 18.6 |
| Melvin Gordon, LAC | 12 | 73.8 | 40.8 | 114.6 | 1.17 | 18.5 |
| Saquon Barkley, NYG | 16 | 81.7 | 45.1 | 126.8 | .94 | 18.3 |
| Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 15 | 58.9 | 47.3 | 106.1 | 1.20 | 17.8 |
| James Conner, Pitt. | 13 | 74.8 | 38.2 | 113.1 | 1.00 | 17.3 |
| Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 16 | 68.6 | 54.2 | 122.8 | .81 | 17.2 |
| Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 15 | 95.6 | 37.8 | 133.4 | .60 | 16.9 |
| Aaron Jones, G.B. | 8 | 67.5 | 20.6 | 88.1 | 1.00 | 14.8 |
| Nick Chubb, Cle. | 10 | 82.3 | 14.9 | 97.2 | .80 | 14.5 |
| Phillip Lindsay, Den. | 9 | 76.8 | 14.2 | 91.0 | .89 | 14.4 |
| Marlon Mack, Ind. | 11 | 79.5 | 9.2 | 88.6 | .91 | 14.3 |
| Joe Mixon, Cin. | 14 | 83.4 | 21.1 | 104.6 | .64 | 14.3 |
| Chris Carson, Sea. | 14 | 82.2 | 11.6 | 93.9 | .64 | 13.2 |
| Phillip Lindsay, Den. | 15 | 69.1 | 16.1 | 85.2 | .67 | 12.5 |
| David Johnson, Ariz. | 16 | 58.8 | 27.9 | 86.6 | .63 | 12.4 |
| Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 8 | 54.9 | 23.1 | 78.0 | .75 | 12.3 |
| James White, N.E. | 16 | 26.6 | 46.9 | 73.5 | .75 | 11.9 |
| Kerryon Johnson, Det. | 9 | 69.3 | 21.4 | 90.8 | .44 | 11.7 |
| Derrick Henry, Ten. | 16 | 66.2 | 6.2 | 72.4 | .75 | 11.7 |
| Gus Edwards, Balt. | 7 | 93.4 | 1.9 | 95.3 | .29 | 11.2 |
| Adrian Peterson, Was. | 16 | 65.1 | 13.0 | 78.1 | .50 | 10.8 |
| Tevin Coleman, Atl. | 14 | 54.7 | 16.8 | 71.5 | .57 | 10.6 |
| Dalvin Cook, Min. | 11 | 55.9 | 27.7 | 83.6 | .36 | 10.5 |
| Carlos Hyde, Cle.-Jac. | 7 | 56.4 | 5.0 | 61.4 | .71 | 10.4 |
| Sony Michel, N.E. | 13 | 71.6 | 3.8 | 75.5 | .46 | 10.3 |
| Tarik Cohen, Chi. | 16 | 27.8 | 45.3 | 73.1 | .50 | 10.3 |
| Mark Ingram, N.O. | 12 | 53.8 | 14.2 | 67.9 | .58 | 10.3 |
| Jordan Howard, Chi. | 16 | 58.4 | 9.1 | 67.5 | .56 | 10.1 |
| Lamar Miller, Hou. | 15 | 64.9 | 10.9 | 75.7 | .40 | 10.0 |
| Alex Collins, Balt. | 10 | 41.1 | 10.5 | 51.6 | .80 | 10.0 |
| T.J. Yeldon, Jac. | 7 | 35.3 | 47.0 | 82.3 | .29 | 9.9 |
| Lamar Miller, Hou. | 16 | 55.5 | 20.4 | 75.9 | .38 | 9.8 |
| Matt Breida, S.F. | 14 | 58.1 | 18.6 | 76.8 | .36 | 9.8 |
| Doug Martin, Oak. | 10 | 62.4 | 11.1 | 73.5 | .40 | 9.8 |
| Kenyan Drake, Mia. | 16 | 33.4 | 29.8 | 63.3 | .56 | 9.7 |
| Austin Ekeler, LAC | 11 | 38.6 | 29.8 | 68.5 | .45 | 9.6 |
| Isaiah Crowell, NYJ | 13 | 52.7 | 11.7 | 64.4 | .46 | 9.2 |
| Peyton Barber, T.B. | 16 | 54.4 | 5.8 | 60.2 | .38 | 8.3 |
| Wendell Smallwood, Phil. | 11 | 33.2 | 20.9 | 54.1 | .45 | 8.1 |
| Josh Adams, Phil. | 9 | 51.7 | 6.4 | 58.1 | .33 | 7.8 |
| LeSean McCoy, Buff. | 14 | 36.7 | 17.0 | 53.7 | .21 | 6.7 |
| Dion Lewis, Ten. | 16 | 32.3 | 25.0 | 57.3 | .13 | 6.5 |
| Frank Gore, Mia. | 14 | 51.6 | 8.9 | 60.4 | .07 | 6.5 |
| Jamaal Williams, G.B. | 8 | 40.4 | 16.8 | 57.1 | .13 | 6.5 |
Given the age, injury risk or relatively low ceiling of these veterans, it's temping to throw a very late pick at Singletary. Maybe he shows enough in the preseason to compel the team to move on from one or two of the veterans. But Singletary isn't a big guy (5-7, 203), so a complementary role at best seems likely.
In any event, none of these options looks like a strong target in drafts. More of a late-round flier, or situation to monitor in the preseason.
--Andy Richardson