A story on NFL.com suggests the key to Green Bay getting back to contention this year will be an improved defense. They added a couple of high-priced free agents and used their early draft picks on defenders. So maybe. There's certainly ample room for improvement.
The only uncertainty I have is that most of their biggest acquisitions (top pick Rashan Gary and free agents Preston Smith and ZaDarius Smith) are all meant to provide pass rush, and that hasn't been an issue for this defense. The Packers have had a top-10 pass rush in six of the last seven years. Over that span, only five teams have had more sacks. Best the new additions will do is enable them to hold serve in that regard.
TEAM SACKS, 2012-2018 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Team | '12 | '13 | '14 | '15 | '16 | '17 | '18 | Total |
Carolina | 39 | 60 | 40 | 44 | 47 | 50 | 35 | 315 |
LA Rams | 52 | 53 | 40 | 41 | 31 | 48 | 41 | 306 |
Denver | 52 | 41 | 41 | 52 | 42 | 33 | 44 | 305 |
Pittsburgh | 37 | 34 | 33 | 48 | 38 | 56 | 52 | 298 |
Minnesota | 44 | 41 | 41 | 43 | 41 | 37 | 50 | 297 |
Green Bay | 47 | 44 | 41 | 43 | 40 | 37 | 44 | 296 |
Arizona | 38 | 47 | 35 | 36 | 48 | 37 | 49 | 290 |
New England | 37 | 48 | 40 | 49 | 34 | 42 | 30 | 280 |
Kansas City | 27 | 47 | 46 | 47 | 28 | 31 | 52 | 278 |
Seattle | 36 | 44 | 37 | 37 | 42 | 39 | 43 | 278 |
Baltimore | 37 | 40 | 49 | 37 | 31 | 41 | 43 | 278 |
Chicago | 41 | 31 | 39 | 35 | 37 | 42 | 50 | 275 |
Tennessee | 39 | 36 | 39 | 39 | 40 | 43 | 39 | 275 |
Buffalo | 36 | 57 | 54 | 21 | 39 | 27 | 36 | 270 |
Washington | 32 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 38 | 42 | 46 | 269 |
Philadelphia | 30 | 37 | 49 | 37 | 34 | 38 | 44 | 269 |
Houston | 44 | 32 | 38 | 45 | 31 | 32 | 43 | 265 |
New Orleans | 30 | 49 | 34 | 31 | 30 | 42 | 49 | 265 |
Cincinnati | 51 | 43 | 20 | 42 | 33 | 41 | 34 | 264 |
Jacksonville | 20 | 31 | 45 | 36 | 33 | 55 | 37 | 257 |
Detroit | 34 | 33 | 42 | 42 | 26 | 35 | 43 | 255 |
NY Jets | 30 | 41 | 45 | 39 | 27 | 28 | 39 | 249 |
Miami | 42 | 42 | 39 | 31 | 33 | 30 | 31 | 248 |
LA Chargers | 38 | 35 | 26 | 32 | 35 | 43 | 38 | 247 |
Indianapolis | 32 | 42 | 41 | 35 | 33 | 25 | 38 | 246 |
Dallas | 34 | 34 | 28 | 31 | 36 | 38 | 39 | 240 |
San Francisco | 38 | 38 | 36 | 28 | 33 | 30 | 37 | 240 |
Cleveland | 38 | 40 | 31 | 29 | 26 | 34 | 37 | 235 |
Tampa Bay | 27 | 35 | 36 | 38 | 38 | 22 | 38 | 234 |
NY Giants | 33 | 34 | 47 | 23 | 35 | 27 | 30 | 229 |
Atlanta | 29 | 32 | 22 | 19 | 34 | 39 | 37 | 212 |
Oakland | 25 | 38 | 22 | 38 | 25 | 31 | 13 | 192 |
It's in terms of takeaways where Green Bay has struggled in recent years. They haven't ranked in the top 10 in that area in any of the last four years. Over that span, they've been a bottom 10 team in terms of takeaways.
TEAM TAKEAWAYS, 2015-2018 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Team | '15 | '16 | '17 | '18 | Total |
Kansas City | 29 | 33 | 26 | 27 | 115 |
Carolina | 39 | 27 | 21 | 22 | 109 |
LA Rams | 26 | 18 | 28 | 30 | 102 |
Philadelphia | 26 | 26 | 31 | 17 | 100 |
Arizona | 33 | 28 | 21 | 16 | 98 |
Denver | 27 | 27 | 17 | 27 | 98 |
Tampa Bay | 23 | 29 | 26 | 17 | 95 |
Buffalo | 25 | 18 | 25 | 27 | 95 |
Washington | 26 | 20 | 23 | 26 | 95 |
LA Chargers | 20 | 28 | 27 | 20 | 95 |
Baltimore | 14 | 28 | 34 | 17 | 93 |
Seattle | 22 | 19 | 25 | 26 | 92 |
NY Giants | 27 | 25 | 19 | 21 | 92 |
New Orleans | 22 | 21 | 25 | 24 | 92 |
New England | 21 | 23 | 18 | 28 | 90 |
Pittsburgh | 30 | 23 | 22 | 15 | 90 |
Indianapolis | 25 | 17 | 20 | 26 | 88 |
Minnesota | 22 | 27 | 19 | 20 | 88 |
Houston | 25 | 17 | 16 | 29 | 87 |
Chicago | 17 | 11 | 22 | 36 | 86 |
Oakland | 25 | 30 | 14 | 17 | 86 |
Miami | 16 | 25 | 15 | 28 | 84 |
Green Bay | 22 | 25 | 22 | 15 | 84 |
NY Jets | 30 | 12 | 20 | 20 | 82 |
Jacksonville | 18 | 13 | 33 | 17 | 81 |
Cincinnati | 28 | 20 | 14 | 18 | 80 |
Atlanta | 23 | 22 | 16 | 19 | 80 |
Cleveland | 21 | 13 | 13 | 31 | 78 |
Detroit | 18 | 14 | 32 | 14 | 78 |
Tennessee | 19 | 18 | 21 | 17 | 75 |
Dallas | 11 | 20 | 21 | 20 | 72 |
San Francisco | 12 | 20 | 20 | 7 | 59 |
The Packers are counting on an improved secondary changing that. They also used a first-round pick on safety Darnell Savage, and signed another safety, Adrian Amos, away from Chicago.
I didn't include Green Bay in my initial top 20 defenses. I'm figuring the pass rush might hold serve, at best, and I'm not even confident in that. It's not a given that Gary is going to step in and be a star, despite his lofty selection, and neither of the Smiths will necessarily be a game-changer. The idea that Mike Pettine is going to build a championship contender on the defensive side of the ball looks optimistic.
It will be on offense where Green Bay either succeeds or fails in 2019. If they made a good coaching hire in Matt LaFleur, there's potential for a bounce-back year from Aaron Rodgers, and another NFC North title. But I'm not expecting it to be a difference-making defense, fantasy or otherwise.
--Andy Richardson