It's no secret that Miami looks like a team with little interest in winning this season. They let a lot of capable veterans go, and will field the cheapest (by far) offensive line in the league. If they're hoping to be competitive, and not tank to land the top pick in next year's draft, they're doing a poor job of it.
But strange things happen all the time in the NFL, and the actual players stepping out onto the field each week will be trying, and maybe performing. That's what Ryan Fitzpatrick thinks will happen, and he's not without some potential.
"There's been a lot of shade and disrespect thrown my way" said Fitzpatrick recently. Obviously, he hasn't been viewed as a priority for teams to keep around, now with his 8th team in 15 years. And the Dolphins traded for Josh Rosen during the draft, so Fitzpatrick won't even necessarily start. Coach Brian Flores says the job is wide open. Rosen has theoretically more of a future, Fitzpatrick more of a past.
As recently as last year, though, Fitzpatrick was no slouch -- he was one of the league's most productive quarterbacks on a per-game basis. Until getting benched for Jameis Winston (following an implosion in Chicago against the league's toughest defense), he was playing very well. The only quarterback who put up more fantasy points per start last year (minimum 5 starts) was the league MVP.
QUARTERBACK FANTASY POINTS PER START, 2018 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | St | PYd | TDP | RYd | TDR | 2Pt | Pts |
Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 16 | 318.6 | 3.13 | 17.0 | .13 | .06 | 31.0 |
Ryan Fitzpatrick, T.B. | 7 | 310.3 | 2.14 | 19.1 | .29 | .00 | 27.7 |
Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 16 | 320.6 | 2.13 | 6.1 | .19 | .25 | 26.8 |
Matt Ryan, Atl. | 16 | 307.8 | 2.19 | 7.8 | .25 | .13 | 26.7 |
Jameis Winston, T.B. | 9 | 294.2 | 1.78 | 28.7 | .11 | .00 | 25.4 |
Andrew Luck, Ind. | 16 | 287.1 | 2.44 | 9.3 | .00 | .13 | 25.3 |
Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 16 | 260.3 | 1.63 | 34.4 | .31 | .00 | 24.8 |
Cam Newton, Car. | 14 | 242.5 | 1.71 | 34.9 | .29 | .14 | 24.5 |
Jared Goff, LAR | 16 | 293.0 | 2.00 | 6.8 | .13 | .19 | 24.5 |
Drew Brees, N.O. | 15 | 266.1 | 2.13 | 1.5 | .27 | .07 | 23.7 |
Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 14 | 230.2 | 1.71 | 30.1 | .21 | .29 | 23.2 |
Baker Mayfield, Clev. | 13 | 271.1 | 2.08 | 10.2 | .00 | .08 | 23.0 |
Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 16 | 277.6 | 1.56 | 16.8 | .13 | .19 | 22.9 |
Josh Allen, Buff. | 11 | 181.8 | .91 | 55.0 | .73 | .09 | 22.8 |
Carson Wentz, Phil. | 11 | 279.5 | 1.91 | 8.5 | .00 | .09 | 22.6 |
Kirk Cousins, Min. | 16 | 268.6 | 1.88 | 7.7 | .06 | .19 | 22.5 |
Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 7 | 160.6 | .71 | 79.4 | .57 | .00 | 22.3 |
Dak Prescott, Dall. | 16 | 242.8 | 1.38 | 19.1 | .38 | .13 | 22.0 |
Philip Rivers, LAC | 16 | 269.3 | 2.00 | .4 | .00 | .25 | 22.0 |
Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 215.5 | 2.19 | 23.5 | .00 | .06 | 22.0 |
Tom Brady, N.E. | 16 | 272.2 | 1.81 | 2.2 | .13 | .00 | 21.8 |
C.J. Beathard, S.F. | 5 | 250.4 | 1.60 | 13.8 | .20 | .00 | 21.5 |
Nick Mullens, S.F. | 8 | 284.6 | 1.63 | -2.0 | .00 | .13 | 20.8 |
Andy Dalton, Cin. | 11 | 233.3 | 1.91 | 9.0 | .00 | .00 | 20.2 |
Nick Foles, Phil. | 5 | 282.6 | 1.40 | 3.4 | .00 | .00 | 20.1 |
Eli Manning, NYG | 16 | 268.7 | 1.31 | 1.3 | .06 | .19 | 19.6 |
Joe Flacco, Balt. | 9 | 273.9 | 1.33 | 5.0 | .00 | .00 | 19.5 |
Blake Bortles, Jac. | 12 | 223.3 | 1.08 | 28.3 | .08 | .00 | 18.8 |
Derek Carr, Oak. | 16 | 253.1 | 1.19 | 2.9 | .06 | .06 | 18.2 |
Case Keenum, Den. | 16 | 243.1 | 1.13 | 5.8 | .13 | .00 | 18.0 |
Sam Darnold, NYJ | 13 | 220.4 | 1.31 | 10.6 | .08 | .00 | 17.8 |
Matthew Stafford, Det. | 16 | 236.1 | 1.31 | 4.4 | .00 | .00 | 17.5 |
Alex Smith, Wash. | 10 | 218.0 | 1.00 | 16.8 | .10 | .00 | 17.2 |
Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 11 | 179.9 | 1.55 | 13.2 | .09 | .00 | 17.0 |
Brock Osweiler, Mia. | 5 | 242.4 | 1.00 | 2.8 | .00 | .20 | 16.8 |
Marcus Mariota, Ten. | 13 | 186.8 | .85 | 23.5 | .15 | .00 | 16.0 |
Jeff Driskel, Cin. | 5 | 152.8 | 1.00 | 16.2 | .20 | .20 | 14.9 |
Josh Rosen, Ariz. | 13 | 172.5 | .85 | 9.7 | .00 | .08 | 13.1 |
It won't be lost on many that the quarterback at the very bottom of that table is Rosen. Granted, he was a rookie starting in a hapless offense, working behind one of the league's worst offensive lines. But some of those things might be at play in Miami, as well. Given that, Fitzpatrick might be a better bet for success. Again: he's had some success running an offense in the past.
I don't really think Miami's offense is likely to have a big year. But Kenyan Drake, Kenny Stills, DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki -- these guys aren't totally valueless, either. One or more of them could come into some fantasy value. Particularly if Fitzpatrick gets on one of the hot streaks that's kept him in the league the last 15 years.
--Andy Richardson