In the magazine, we identified second-year tight end Chris Herndon as a possible top-10 player at his position. Probably best to think of that on a per-game basis, based on yesterday's news that Herndon might not see the field until Week 6.
Herndon has been suspended for the first four games for violating the league's policy on substance abuse, due to a DWI offense. A two-game suspension was anticipated, but it's four because a woman at the scene claimed bodily harm, according to the linked story. Herndon says he'll appeal, and it wouldn't be shocking if that suspension got knocked down a game or two; that happens sometimes.
If it does stand, and with the Jets having a bye in Week 4, Herndon wouldn't play until Week 6. Pretty hard to draft him as a fantasy starter if you need to keep him on the shelf for that long, and the Jets don't seem to have a viable handcuff; unlikely that Daniel Brown, Eric Tomlinson or fourth-rounder Trevon Wesco steps in and catches a bunch of passes in those games.
Herndon finished with modest numbers as a rookie -- 39 catches, 502 yards and 4 TDs -- but he came on strong as he got more comfortable. In the second half of the season, he had more than two-thirds of his catches (27) and yards (341). In the final eight games, only eight tight ends caught more passes.
| TIGHT ENDS, FINAL EIGHT GAMES, 2018 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | No | Yds | TD |
| Travis Kelce, K.C. | 59 | 694 | 6 |
| Zach Ertz, Phil. | 55 | 519 | 5 |
| George Kittle, S.F. | 51 | 793 | 3 |
| Austin Hooper, Atl. | 35 | 298 | 2 |
| Kyle Rudolph, Min. | 32 | 313 | 2 |
| Eric Ebron, Ind. | 30 | 356 | 6 |
| Jared Cook, Oak. | 30 | 402 | 3 |
| Evan Engram, NYG | 28 | 432 | 1 |
| Chris Herndon, NYJ | 27 | 341 | 1 |
| C.J. Uzomah, Cin. | 26 | 255 | 1 |
| David Njoku, Clev. | 25 | 342 | 2 |
| Ian Thomas, Car. | 25 | 246 | 2 |
| Trey Burton, Chi. | 25 | 198 | 1 |
| Vance McDonald, Pitt. | 24 | 264 | 3 |
| Blake Jarwin, Dall. | 23 | 265 | 3 |
| Gerald Everett, LAR | 23 | 222 | 3 |
| Jimmy Graham, G.B. | 23 | 211 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed, Was. | 21 | 218 | 1 |
| Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | 18 | 234 | 2 |
| Tyler Higbee, LAR | 18 | 222 | 1 |
| Levine Toilolo, Det. | 17 | 232 | 1 |
| Anthony Firkser, Ten. | 17 | 200 | 1 |
| Mark Andrews, Balt. | 16 | 358 | 1 |
| Cameron Brate, T.B. | 16 | 160 | 3 |
| Antonio Gates, LAC | 16 | 210 | 1 |
| Jeff Heuerman, Den. | 16 | 147 | 1 |
| Matt LaCosse, Den. | 15 | 166 | 1 |
| Dallas Goedert, Phil. | 15 | 146 | 1 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones, Ariz. | 15 | 127 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy, Jac. | 15 | 113 | 0 |
All well and good, but if the suspension stands, I think now Herndon needs to be dropped down out of the top 15 -- can't be used until a third of the fantasy season is over. I think you slot him down behind guys who look a little more likely to play the full season, say Kyle Rudolph, Trey Burton and Jimmy Graham.
I still like the idea of selecting Herndon as a second tight end. Maybe his suspension gets knocked down to 2-3 games, and he comes out of the Week 4 bye raring to go. But no longer as likely to be a top-10 type of player.
--Andy Richardson