In the Cheat Sheet update (which went out this morning) we offer detailed projections for every player. But it can also be useful to look at offenses in general. The most productive players, after all, tend to come from the best offenses.
We’ll be working on our projections all through August, constantly making adjustments as the injuries and other developments occur. In a board sense, some of those adjustments involve the team – how many yards and touchdowns will each offense produce – and the others relate to how those stats will be divvied up amongst that team’s players.
The player summaries occur in the Monday morning product. Now let’s take a step back on look instead at entire offenses.
On my board, I’ve got five offenses projecting to average at least 3 TDs per game – Kansas City, New Orleans, Indianapolis, Atlanta and the Rams. I’ve got them all at 48-53 touchdowns, and that’s probably a little conservative. As the season approaches and I feel more confident about those groups, I may add 1-3 TDs to some of them.
At the other end of the scale, I’ve got four offenses finishing with fewer than 33 TDs – Miami, Washington, Denver and the Jets.
| OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWN PROJECTIONS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pass | Run | Total |
| Kansas City | 39.2 | 13.9 | 53.1 |
| New Orleans | 32.8 | 19.8 | 52.6 |
| Indianapolis | 36.5 | 13.1 | 49.6 |
| LA Rams | 32.0 | 17.1 | 49.1 |
| Atlanta | 34.4 | 13.6 | 48.0 |
| New England | 28.0 | 18.6 | 46.6 |
| Seattle | 31.0 | 15.0 | 46.1 |
| Philadelphia | 33.0 | 12.3 | 45.3 |
| Cleveland | 31.0 | 13.6 | 44.6 |
| Green Bay | 30.9 | 13.0 | 43.8 |
| LA Chargers | 30.2 | 12.8 | 43.0 |
| Pittsburgh | 29.4 | 13.3 | 42.7 |
| Houston | 30.9 | 11.5 | 42.4 |
| Minnesota | 28.2 | 13.0 | 41.1 |
| Carolina | 25.9 | 14.7 | 40.6 |
| Dallas | 22.6 | 16.0 | 38.6 |
| Chicago | 24.5 | 13.8 | 38.2 |
| Tampa Bay | 28.3 | 8.5 | 36.8 |
| Tennessee | 20.6 | 16.0 | 36.6 |
| Oakland | 24.5 | 11.4 | 35.8 |
| San Francisco | 25.1 | 10.4 | 35.5 |
| Detroit | 24.2 | 11.4 | 35.5 |
| Jacksonville | 21.3 | 14.1 | 35.4 |
| NY Giants | 19.8 | 15.5 | 35.4 |
| Buffalo | 18.4 | 16.8 | 35.2 |
| Arizona | 21.9 | 12.8 | 34.7 |
| Baltimore | 15.7 | 18.6 | 34.2 |
| Cincinnati | 22.9 | 11.4 | 34.2 |
| NY Jets | 22.4 | 10.4 | 32.8 |
| Denver | 18.6 | 13.6 | 32.2 |
| Washington | 18.4 | 11.7 | 30.1 |
| Miami | 19.5 | 8.5 | 28.0 |
For passing production, all five of those previously mentioned elite offenses are in my top 6 (joined by the Steelers). I’ve got the Browns and Packers just behind that group.
The Ravens are a distant last, with their run-oriented schem, with Buffalo, Miami and Washington also in the bottom 4.
Rankings here based on 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 yards.
| TEAM PASSING PROJECTIONS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Yards | TDP | Points |
| Kansas City | 295 | 2.45 | 44.2 |
| Atlanta | 305 | 2.15 | 43.4 |
| Indianapolis | 290 | 2.28 | 42.7 |
| LA Rams | 280 | 2.00 | 40.0 |
| Pittsburgh | 287 | 1.84 | 39.7 |
| New Orleans | 273 | 2.05 | 39.6 |
| Cleveland | 275 | 1.94 | 39.1 |
| Green Bay | 275 | 1.93 | 39.1 |
| Philadelphia | 265 | 2.06 | 38.9 |
| LA Chargers | 275 | 1.89 | 38.8 |
| Tampa Bay | 280 | 1.77 | 38.6 |
| Houston | 266 | 1.93 | 38.2 |
| New England | 270 | 1.75 | 37.5 |
| San Francisco | 272 | 1.57 | 36.6 |
| Minnesota | 250 | 1.76 | 35.6 |
| Oakland | 262 | 1.53 | 35.4 |
| Seattle | 228 | 1.94 | 34.4 |
| Carolina | 245 | 1.62 | 34.2 |
| Detroit | 250 | 1.51 | 34.1 |
| Chicago | 240 | 1.53 | 33.2 |
| Jacksonville | 245 | 1.33 | 32.5 |
| Dallas | 240 | 1.41 | 32.5 |
| NY Jets | 240 | 1.40 | 32.4 |
| Cincinnati | 237 | 1.43 | 32.3 |
| Arizona | 240 | 1.37 | 32.2 |
| Denver | 235 | 1.16 | 30.5 |
| NY Giants | 228 | 1.24 | 30.2 |
| Tennessee | 225 | 1.29 | 30.2 |
| Washington | 230 | 1.15 | 29.9 |
| Miami | 218 | 1.22 | 29.1 |
| Buffalo | 212 | 1.15 | 28.1 |
| Baltimore | 180 | .98 | 23.9 |
For rushing production, I’ve got the Ravens, Seahawks and Bills in my top 5. All of those teams have running quarterbacks. They’re joined at the top by two teams with older, immobile quarterbacks who run the ball more conventionally: Saints and Patriots.
At the bottom, I’ve got the Dolphins, Jets and two pirate-themed franchises (Bucs and Raiders).
As with the passing, projections assume 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 yards. These are not running back projections. They don’t include pass-catching stats by running backs, and the totals include rushing production by quarterbacks and wide receivers.
| TEAM RUSHING PROJECTIONS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Yards | TDR | Points |
| Baltimore | 186 | 1.16 | 25.6 |
| Seattle | 151 | .94 | 20.7 |
| New Orleans | 121 | 1.24 | 19.5 |
| New England | 125 | 1.16 | 19.5 |
| Buffalo | 125 | 1.05 | 18.8 |
| LA Rams | 120 | 1.07 | 18.4 |
| Dallas | 124 | 1.00 | 18.4 |
| Tennessee | 120 | 1.00 | 18.0 |
| Carolina | 122 | .92 | 17.7 |
| NY Giants | 118 | .97 | 17.6 |
| Philadelphia | 121 | .77 | 16.7 |
| Green Bay | 115 | .81 | 16.4 |
| Houston | 120 | .72 | 16.3 |
| Cleveland | 112 | .85 | 16.3 |
| Chicago | 111 | .86 | 16.3 |
| Kansas City | 110 | .87 | 16.2 |
| Indianapolis | 112 | .82 | 16.1 |
| Denver | 110 | .85 | 16.1 |
| Minnesota | 112 | .81 | 16.1 |
| Arizona | 110 | .80 | 15.8 |
| Jacksonville | 105 | .88 | 15.8 |
| LA Chargers | 107 | .80 | 15.5 |
| Atlanta | 103 | .85 | 15.4 |
| Pittsburgh | 103 | .83 | 15.3 |
| Washington | 108 | .73 | 15.2 |
| San Francisco | 111 | .65 | 15.0 |
| Cincinnati | 106 | .71 | 14.9 |
| Detroit | 106 | .71 | 14.9 |
| Oakland | 105 | .71 | 14.8 |
| NY Jets | 105 | .65 | 14.4 |
| Tampa Bay | 95 | .53 | 12.7 |
| Miami | 92 | .53 | 12.4 |
That’s where I see the offenses right now. If you see something that’s out of whack, we can hash it out in the comments section.
—Ian Allan