The updated version of the Cheat Sheet has been posted, allowing you to see how we rank all of the players on all of the teams. But let’s now take a step back and look not at individuals but entire NFL offenses.
In fantasy football, it useful to operate on both the micro and macro levels. That is, you can try and decide who’s going to be the leading rusher or receiver on a team, and what kind of stats he might finish with. Or you can try to gauge the overall production of each NFL team.
In our process, the two are tied together. That is, if we decide to lower expectations for an offense by 10-20 yards per game and 1-2 TDs on the season, those stats need to be removed from the players on that roster. The totals of the individuals on each offense need to add up to match the team totals.
If we’re looking at just touchdowns, I’ve got two offenses finishing with over 52 touchdowns – Kansas City and New Orleans. I’ve got three others averaging just over 3 TDs per game (48-49 total): Rams, Colts, Falcons.
Down at the bottom, I’ve got Miami and Washington as clearly the two lowest-scoring offenses in the league. Cincinnati is the biggest mover of the week, with its injury problems, moving down toward the bottom tier.
| OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWNS PROJECTIONS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pass | Run | Total |
| Kansas City | 38.9 | 13.8 | 52.6 |
| New Orleans | 32.8 | 19.5 | 52.3 |
| LA Rams | 32.0 | 17.1 | 49.1 |
| Indianapolis | 36.2 | 13.0 | 49.1 |
| Atlanta | 34.7 | 13.8 | 48.5 |
| New England | 28.0 | 18.7 | 46.7 |
| Seattle | 31.0 | 15.0 | 46.1 |
| Philadelphia | 33.0 | 12.5 | 45.4 |
| Cleveland | 31.0 | 13.6 | 44.6 |
| Green Bay | 30.9 | 13.0 | 43.8 |
| Pittsburgh | 29.4 | 13.3 | 42.7 |
| LA Chargers | 29.9 | 12.6 | 42.6 |
| Houston | 30.9 | 11.5 | 42.4 |
| Minnesota | 28.2 | 13.0 | 41.1 |
| Carolina | 25.9 | 14.7 | 40.6 |
| Dallas | 22.7 | 16.0 | 38.7 |
| Chicago | 24.5 | 13.8 | 38.2 |
| Tampa Bay | 28.3 | 8.5 | 36.8 |
| Tennessee | 20.6 | 16.0 | 36.6 |
| San Francisco | 25.1 | 10.4 | 35.5 |
| Detroit | 24.2 | 11.4 | 35.5 |
| Oakland | 24.2 | 11.4 | 35.5 |
| Jacksonville | 21.3 | 14.1 | 35.4 |
| NY Giants | 19.7 | 15.7 | 35.4 |
| Buffalo | 18.4 | 16.8 | 35.2 |
| Arizona | 22.1 | 12.8 | 34.9 |
| Baltimore | 15.7 | 18.6 | 34.2 |
| Cincinnati | 22.4 | 11.2 | 33.6 |
| NY Jets | 22.9 | 10.6 | 33.4 |
| Denver | 18.6 | 13.6 | 32.2 |
| Washington | 18.4 | 11.7 | 30.1 |
| Miami | 19.5 | 8.5 | 28.0 |
For passing projections, I’ve got three offenses in the top tier – Kansas City, Atlanta and Indianapolis. I’ve got them all averaging over 2 more fantasy points per week than the Rams, Steelers and Saints. I’m using standard scoring for this (6 points for TDs and 1 for every 10 yards), but the ordering will be very similar if you instead use 4 points for TD passes and 1 for every 20 yards.
With Baltimore using a run-oriented system, it’s well behind every other team in projected passing. Three others average below 30 points per week: Buffalo, Miami, Washington.
| TEAM PASSING PROJECTIONS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Yards | TD | Points |
| Kansas City | 297 | 2.43 | 44.3 |
| Atlanta | 305 | 2.17 | 43.5 |
| Indianapolis | 287 | 2.26 | 42.3 |
| LA Rams | 280 | 2.00 | 40.0 |
| Pittsburgh | 287 | 1.84 | 39.7 |
| New Orleans | 273 | 2.05 | 39.6 |
| Cleveland | 275 | 1.94 | 39.1 |
| Green Bay | 275 | 1.93 | 39.1 |
| Philadelphia | 263 | 2.06 | 38.7 |
| Tampa Bay | 280 | 1.77 | 38.6 |
| LA Chargers | 272 | 1.87 | 38.4 |
| Houston | 266 | 1.93 | 38.2 |
| New England | 270 | 1.75 | 37.5 |
| San Francisco | 272 | 1.57 | 36.6 |
| Minnesota | 250 | 1.76 | 35.6 |
| Oakland | 258 | 1.51 | 34.9 |
| Seattle | 228 | 1.94 | 34.4 |
| Carolina | 245 | 1.62 | 34.2 |
| Detroit | 250 | 1.51 | 34.1 |
| Chicago | 240 | 1.53 | 33.2 |
| NY Jets | 242 | 1.43 | 32.8 |
| Dallas | 242 | 1.42 | 32.7 |
| Arizona | 243 | 1.38 | 32.6 |
| Jacksonville | 245 | 1.33 | 32.5 |
| Cincinnati | 233 | 1.40 | 31.7 |
| Denver | 235 | 1.16 | 30.5 |
| Tennessee | 225 | 1.29 | 30.2 |
| NY Giants | 228 | 1.23 | 30.2 |
| Washington | 230 | 1.15 | 29.9 |
| Miami | 218 | 1.22 | 29.1 |
| Buffalo | 212 | 1.15 | 28.1 |
| Baltimore | 180 | .98 | 23.9 |
For rushing production, I’ve got Baltimore firmly entrenched in the No. 1 spot, given the style of offense they use. Not much difference between the next four on my board: Seattle, New England, New Orleans, Buffalo and Dallas.
Miami and Tampa Bay are at the bottom, well below everyone else.
Note on rushing projections that they don’t include any passing production. That is, they don’t include any receiving production by running backs. They do include quarterbacks, so the teams with quarterbacks who’ll tend to run for plenty of yards and touchdowns tend to rank higher.
| TEAM RUSHING PROJECTIONS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Yards | TDR | Points |
| Baltimore | 186 | 1.16 | 25.6 |
| Seattle | 151 | .94 | 20.7 |
| New England | 127 | 1.17 | 19.7 |
| New Orleans | 119 | 1.22 | 19.2 |
| Buffalo | 125 | 1.05 | 18.8 |
| Dallas | 125 | 1.00 | 18.5 |
| LA Rams | 120 | 1.07 | 18.4 |
| Tennessee | 120 | 1.00 | 18.0 |
| Carolina | 122 | .92 | 17.7 |
| NY Giants | 117 | .98 | 17.6 |
| Philadelphia | 120 | .78 | 16.7 |
| Green Bay | 115 | .81 | 16.4 |
| Houston | 120 | .72 | 16.3 |
| Cleveland | 112 | .85 | 16.3 |
| Chicago | 111 | .86 | 16.3 |
| Denver | 110 | .85 | 16.1 |
| Minnesota | 112 | .81 | 16.1 |
| Kansas City | 108 | .86 | 16.0 |
| Indianapolis | 110 | .81 | 15.9 |
| Arizona | 110 | .80 | 15.8 |
| Jacksonville | 105 | .88 | 15.8 |
| Atlanta | 103 | .86 | 15.5 |
| Pittsburgh | 103 | .83 | 15.3 |
| LA Chargers | 105 | .79 | 15.2 |
| Washington | 108 | .73 | 15.2 |
| San Francisco | 111 | .65 | 15.0 |
| Detroit | 106 | .71 | 14.9 |
| Oakland | 105 | .71 | 14.8 |
| Cincinnati | 105 | .70 | 14.7 |
| NY Jets | 107 | .66 | 14.7 |
| Tampa Bay | 95 | .53 | 12.7 |
| Miami | 92 | .53 | 12.4 |
—Ian Allan