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Factoid

Preston Williams

Dolphins might be sitting on this year's sleeper receiver

In the first full week of the preseason, Preston Williams was the player who surprised me the most. He wasn’t even drafted, but he looks like he might be Miami’s most productive wide receiver.

Williams’ first preseason catch came on a pass that never should have been thrown – a desperation heave on third-and-long that easily could have been intercepted. Williams was able to make the catch despite interference. He drew another PI flag later on the drive, setting up a 1-yard touchdown run.

Late in the second quarter, Williams made a 1-yard catch on a 36-yard bomb down the left sideline. Three plays later, he picked 18 on a toe-tapping grab on the sideline. Josh Rosen and Williams connected again in the third quarter for a 27-yard gain.

Pretty impressive stuff, and Williams appears to have enough talent that he should have been selected in the second or third round. He’s huge (6-4, 210) and has decent enough speed for a jumbo-sized pass catcher; he ran a 4.53 at his pro day.

Williams was productive at Colorado State, catching 96 passes for 1,345 yards and 14 touchdowns last year. Teams were scared off, apparently, by a domestic abuse incident that resulted in him not being invited to the combine.

I can’t speak to the off-field character, but if Williams has those issues resolved, it seems possible he might develop into Miami’s leading wide receiver. What he did against Atlanta was more impressive than anything DeVante Parker has done in four years with the team. They still have Kenny Stills, and I am still projecting him to be the most productive wide receiver on that team.

If Williams is productive this year, however, he’ll be bucking some long odds. In the last 20 years, only 68 rookie receivers that put up top-50 numbers in their first year. (That’s using PPR scoring). Only eight of those players were drafted after the fourth round. I see five undrafted players, but Tyreek Hill (5th round), Stefon Diggs (5th round) and Marques Colston (7th).

Typically when a rookie receiver has some success early, it’s a player who was selected in the first three rounds. On the chart, I’ve tagged with black dots the three who were drafted in the fourth round. In bold are the eight not drafted before the fifth round.

ROOKIE RECEIVERS POSTING TOP-50 NUMBERS
YearPlayer (drafted)NoYardsTDPointsRk
2014Odell Beckham, NYG (1st)911,30512297.08
2003Anquan Boldin, Ariz. (2nd)1011,3778290.73
2016Michael Thomas, N.O. (2nd)921,1379259.77
2014Mike Evans, T.B. (1st)681,05112245.113
2004Michael Clayton, T.B. (1st)801,1937244.314
2008Eddie Royal, Den. (2nd)919805231.914
2014Kelvin Benjamin, Car. (1st)731,0089227.816
2010• Mike Williams, T.B. (4th)6596411227.416
2013Keenan Allen, S.D. (3rd)711,0468223.618
2006Marques Colston, N.O. (7th)701,0388221.816
2016Tyreek Hill, K.C. (5th)6159312219.018
2011A.J. Green, Cin. (1st)651,0577218.017
2015Amari Cooper, Oak. (1st)721,0706214.721
1999Kevin Johnson, Clev. (2nd)669868212.022
2018Calvin Ridley, Atl. (1st)6482110208.820
2011Julio Jones, Atl. (1st)549598203.521
2014Jordan Matthews, Phil. (2nd)678728202.225
2009Percy Harvin, Min. (1st)607908200.523
2014Sammy Watkins, Buff. (1st)659826200.027
2007Dwayne Bowe, K.C. (1st)709955199.522
2017JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt. (2nd)589178197.720
2004Lee Evans, Buff. (1st)488439194.829
2014Jarvis Landry, Mia. (2nd)847585189.430
2012T.Y. Hilton, Ind. (3rd)508618187.028
2008DeSean Jackson, Phil. (2nd)629124186.830
2003Andre Johnson, Hou. (1st)669764186.622
2004Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. (1st)587808185.431
2012Justin Blackmon, Jac. (1st)648655184.829
2016Sterling Shepard, NYG (2nd)656838184.436
2004Roy Williams, Det. (1st)548178183.832
2011Torrey Smith, Balt. (2nd)508417180.030
2017Cooper Kupp, LAR (3rd)628695178.925
2001Chris Chambers, Mia. (2nd)488837177.233
2009• Austin Collie, Ind. (4th)606767169.729
1999Torry Holt, St.L. (1st)527886169.336
2015Tyler Lockett, Sea. (3rd)516648167.441
2000Peter Warrick, Cin. (1st)515927167.030
2018DJ Moore, Car. (1st)557882163.036
2009Hakeem Nicks, NYG (1st)477906162.833
1999Troy Edwards, Pitt. (1st)617145162.442
2013Cordarrelle Patterson, Min. (1st)454699161.738
2012Josh Gordon, Clev. (2nd)508055160.541
2000Darrell Jackson, Sea. (3rd)537136160.235
2007Calvin Johnson, Det. (1st)487565158.838
2002Antonio Bryant, Dall. (2nd)447336157.345
2009Jeremy Maclin, Phil. (1st)567734156.635
2009Mike Wallace, Pitt. (3rd)397566155.436
2014Allen Hurns, Jac. (undrafted)516776154.749
2004Keary Colbert, Car. (2nd)477545154.441
2011Doug Baldwin, Sea. (undrafted)517884153.642
2008Donnie Avery, St.L. (2nd)536744151.339
2012Kendall Wright, Ten. (1st)646264151.045
2006Santonio Holmes, Pitt. (1st)498243150.738
2013Terrance Williams, Dall. (3rd)447365150.045
2002Donte Stallworth, N.O. (1st)425948149.650
2015Stefon Diggs, Min. (5th)527204149.347
2010Dez Bryant, Dall. (1st)455618149.142
2011Titus Young, Det. (2nd)486076148.245
2001Rod Gardner, Was. (1st)467414145.743
2011Greg Little, Clev. (2nd)617092145.447
2013Marlon Brown, Balt. (undrafted)495247145.248
2013DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. (1st)528022144.249
1999Terrence Wilkins, Ind. (undrafted)425657140.750
2018Courtland Sutton, Den. (2nd)427044136.350
2000Sylvester Morris, K.C. (1st)486783135.449
2017Keelan Cole, Jac. (undrafted)427483134.848
2005Reggie Brown, Phil. (2nd)435714124.649
2016• Malcolm Mitchell, N.E. (4th)32401496.150

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index