Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. How to allocate free agency dollars. Is Sam Darnold this year's breakout quarterback? Drafting suspended players. Strategies for best-ball leagues. And more.
Question 1
I have recently joined a league that uses a season long $1,000 bid process for waiver pick ups. This is my first time with such a waiver system. Can you provide any guidelines as to how best negotiate waivers under these circumstances?
Dwight Johnson (Columbia, MD)
I’ve been in those kind of leagues. I operate under the assumption that I want to add 2-3 impact players during the course of the season. So when I see a guy who I think is going to be a value addition, I’m willing to spend a half or a third of my payroll to try to get him. I use only small amount of money on the less-important acquistions – kickers and defenses expected to fill in for a week.
Question 2
Preseason performances whether it is positive or negative sometimes are ignored for the fact that the games don't count. However, it is hard to dismiss what my eyes are showing me with Sam Darnold. He is playing with poise and is moving within the pocket with confidence that we didn't see last year. With the additions of Bell, Crowder, and even Gase, it is hard not to expect a big "Goff like" jump this year. Your rankings do not support my case, thoughts?
Ryan Klein (Tinley Park, IL)
Agreed. Sam Darnold looks a lot more comfortable this year. He’s also working with a coach who likes calling pass plays in the red zone. Adam Gase was the head coach in Miami for three years, and the Dolphins (with modest talent) threw 27, 24 and 26 TD passes in those seasons. If not for quarterback being an overcrowded position, Darnold would be ranked higher.
Question 3
Do you have any stats on players who have at least four game suspensions and how they do when they return?
Bob McKinlay (Casselberry, FL)
In two of the last three years, the Patriots have started the season with a notable player suspended, then come back to win the Super Bowl, with said player being named the MVP – Tom Brady and Julian Edelman. And in each of the last two years, there have also been suspended running backs who have had successful seasons (Ezekiel Elliott and Mark Ingram). Overall, though, the track record of suspended players hasn’t been very good. Since 2000, I see only four other pass catchers who have caught at least 50 passes despite behind suspended at least four games. (On the chart below, I’m listing the games played rather then the number of games suspended – some of these players either had injuries or weren’t ready to be activated).
| NOTABLE SUSPENDED PLAYERS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | G | Result |
| 2003 | RB William Green, Clev. | 7 | 609 T Yd, 1 TD |
| 2004 | WR Koren Robinson, Sea. | 10 | 31-495-2 |
| 2005 | RB Travis Henry, Ten. | 10 | 452 T Yd, 0 TD |
| 2005 | WR Charles Rogers, Det. | 9 | 14-197-1 |
| 2007 | RB Dominic Rhodes, Oak. | 10 | 372 T Yd, 1 TD |
| 2008 | WR Plaxico Burress, NYG | 10 | 35-454-4 |
| 2009 | WR Dwayne Bowe, K.C. | 11 | 47-589-4 |
| 2010 | QB Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 12 | 267 YPG, 17 TD |
| 2010 | WR Santonio Holmes, NYJ | 12 | 52-746-6 |
| 2011 | TE Fred Davis, Was. | 12 | 59-796-3 |
| 2013 | WR Justin Blackmon, Jac. | 4 | 29-415-1 |
| 2015 | TE Antonio Gates, S.D. | 11 | 56-630-5 |
| 2016 | RB Doug Martin, T.B. | 8 | 555 T Yd, 3 TD |
| 2016 | QB Tom Brady, N.E. | 12 | 296 YPG, 28 TD |
| 2016 | WR Alshon Jeffery, Chi. | 12 | 52-821-2 |
| 2017 | RB Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 10 | 1,252 T Yd, 9 TD |
| 2018 | RB Mark Ingram, N.O. | 12 | 815 T Yd, 7 TD |
| 2018 | WR Julian Edelman, N.E. | 12 | 74-850-6 |
Question 4
In my league cheat sheet you show Melvin Gordon as the #14 pick. Can this be accurate in any format?
John Sharp (Windsor, CA)
If Gordon were with the team and practicing, he would be the No. 5 running back on the board. I don’t think it will be too much longer before he reports. That’s not based on any special inside insights. I just don’t think he wants to miss game checks.
Question 5
I was wondering how you would adjust your rankings for best-ball drafts. Which players would move up or down in that format?
TROY SPERBECK (Arden Hills, MN)
Typically with best-ball drafts, we’re talking about leagues with no waiver moves – what you draft is what you get. In that kind of league, many talk about wanting to select wide receivers with deep speed. You draft DeSean Jackson or Marquise Goodwin, then cash in on those handful of games when they happen to score a long touchdown (while simultaneously not caring much on their many lesser games). But I put more of a premium on selecting durable, reliable players with a good chance of remaining in the lineup for all 16 games. At quarterback, I don’t want to burn a third roster spot on that position – give me two good ones that I can count on. With the running backs, I tend to try to get the handcuffs of my difference-making running backs. That is, if I select James Conner and Alvin Kamara, I would make an effort to also land Jaylen Samuels and Latavius Murray.
Question 6
What's your take on drafting two quarterbacks? Two tight ends?
Darren VITBERG (Niagara Falls, NY)
I like it. If you’re in a 12-team league, with each franchise starting one quarterback each week, it can make the position an afterthought. Teams will tend to focus first on running backs and wide receivers (where there’s more scarcity), and it’s a valid strategy to treat quarterbacks almost like kickers – picking 2-3 after about 15 have been chosen, with the hope of adequately filling the position with modest prospects. With quarterback being the real-life game’s most important position, I prefer to see the demand for those players turned up. Make each team start two each week, so every franchise goes into drafts wanting to get two or three good options at that position. The same reasoning applies at tight end. I wouldn’t be opposed to a fantasy league requiring 2 QB, 3 RB, 4 WR, 2 TE, 2 PK and 2 Def.
Question 7
With 7th pick in a 12-team league, the rankings say Kelce, but when I mock, inevitably I feel weak almost everywhere except TE. I'm thinking WR Hopkins. Thoughts?
Steven Schipper (Winnipeg, MB)
I would lean against selecting Kelce 7th. I think there’s a pretty good chance you might be able to get him at 2.06. Teams don’t want to select tight ends in the first round. And if you miss out on Kelce in the second round, there will be some safety nets available in the later rounds. I’ve done a couple of drafts, and it seems like when the talent runs out at running back and wide receiver in the second half of the draft, there are still a couple of tight ends there who are nice values. So if you don’t select Kelce or Ertz early, it puts you in a better position later to capitalize on Austin Hooper and Kyle Rudolph still being there.
Question 8
Long-time fan. Been buying this mag since 2001. Been in same league as long, however the league has become a keeper league where you get four players at no penalty (only salary and can keep four more at a big penalty). I only have one QB (Wilson) need a 2nd. Have No. 1 pick overall. Will most likely be a QB. Also have tons of good RBs – Johnson, Cook, Mack, Carson, Henry, Guice, Ballage – I plan to keep the safe bets – Johnson, Cook, Mack and maybe Carson. At WR, i have to keep N.O. Thomas, and maybe Diggs. Which RBs are the safe picks? Cook has screwed me 2 years in a row and Mack disappointed last year. But I love their upside. I see my QB spot as a weakness since we can start two. I had Rosen, but will cut him.
Cal Hoskison (Houston, TX)
With the No. 1 pick, I think there are three ways you can go. You can take Kyler Murray. If he’s anything close to what they hope he is, you’ll have a second quarterback to pair with Wilson. That’s a decent enough way to go. (And given your roster construction, probably the smartest course.) But there are also two rookie running backs that I think get in the conversation. Josh Jacobs looks pretty solid to me. They drafted him to be their bell-cow back, I think he’s going to get a lot of touches in Oakland’s offense, both running and catching dumpoff balls. The third option is David Montgomery. He looks like he’s going to be pretty solid for the Bears. But with Chicago also using other backs, I would not select Montgomery with a top-2 pick. Maybe he ends up being better than those guys (that’s why I’m bringing him up) but I’m not quite willing to go there. If I’m picking, it’s Murray, and I hope that Johnson-Cook-Mack do a better job this year.
Question 9
Any chance Dallas Goedert moves from being on the field for 48% of plays to 75% of plays? I believe if that happened it might end up being another Gronk/Hernandez scenario. Am I dreaming?
PAUL CHAWLA (Brookfield, WI)
I believe the Eagles will use Goedert more this year, but they’re also trying to find playing time for a bunch of wide receivers – Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, Nelson Agholor, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside.
Question 10
Have a 12 team non-PPR league draft in a few days and will be picking out of the 4th spot. My question is, would it be advisable to continue a similar strategy as with a PPR league? Without the PPR element, the likes of the top WRs would obviously still possess value but would James White and Cohen still be options to take at RB by waiting rounds to take an RB? Grab Elliott at 4 despite the holdout (providing the top 3 RBs go in succession?). Thank you again for being the driving force behind the very best website dedicated to your craft.
Donald McCown (Chicago, IL)
Thanks for the kind words. I’m sorry that you’ve landed in the dreaded 4th spot. I think you’ll be left having to make the tough decision of whether to take on the Ezekiel Elliott situation. To skip Elliott is easier in a PPR format, with the tremendous value of those wide receivers who catch 100-plus balls. Those guys aren’t as dominant in standard scoring. And while James White and Tarik Cohen tend to be dramatically undervalued in PPR scoring, they definitely not as good in standard formats. You can’t just bypass the running back position in the early rounds, assuming you’ll be fine with a White-Cohen tandem. Good luck to you.
Question 11
This year our 12-team PPR league we start 2 QBs and now we can play a third QB at the Flex. So with 32 NFL teams and 12 fantasy teams the numbers don't make sense to me. When should I draft my 3 or 4 QBs? I have the 1st pick in a snake draft.
CHRIS DOERING (Boca Raton, FL)
You’ll want to select Patrick Mahomes with the No. 1 pick, and you’ll also be selecting at least one quarterback with one of your next two picks. You might open with three quarterbacks. Even modest quarterbacks like Sam Darnold, Matthew Stafford, Derek Carr and Lamar Jackson might score 300-plus points, so you’ll want to have one of those guys available to start in that flex position. Few, if any, RB-WR-TE will score 300 points. I would go in with the mindset that you’re first two choices will both be quarterbacks. For the third round, I would be a lot more willing to select a RB or a WR. Once you select a third quarterback, it takes you out of the running to be able to cash in nicely by picking up a quarterback on the waiver wire. Suppose, for example, that Jared Goff gets hurt in Week 3. If you were able to pick up Blake Bortles, he would then be a stellar flex in your format. But if you had passed on JuJu Smith-Schuster at pick 3.01 to instead select Joe Flacco, you wouldn’t be positioned as well to benefit from such an addition.
Question 12
My league uses punt returners and kickoff returners. I struggle to find out which players are used this way, to garner their stats. Do you know of an accurate resource (i.e. depth chart)?
Donald Martin (Seattle, WA)
Teams are playing their third preseason games this week. Typically whichever players are handling the kickoff and punt returns in the first halves of these games are the same guys who handle most of those chores in the regular season. It can also be useful to look at other preseason games and last year’s cumulative stats. As the season gets closer, almost all NFL teams publish depth charts at their websites, showing the expected kickoff and punt returners.
Question 13
Can you provide 4-5 players whose value you believe will be significantly higher next year. I am in a dynasty league in which you can only keep two players per year. So selecting players a year early provides incredible value in following seasons.
Joe Cartan (San Francisco, CA)
There were a bunch of pass catchers selected early. Those guys shouldn’t play starring roles this season, but many of them should move into more prominent positions next year. I would put Deebo Samuel, Parris Campbell, Mecole Hardman, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Andy Isabella, A.J. Brown and Terry McLaurin on that list.
Question 14
I’m in a 10-team keeper league. I have Gordon and Ertz. If Gordon was playing it would be a no brainer, but with the hold out should I keep Ertz? Thoughts?
BARRY ST PETER (Pittsfield, MA)
Ertz is the safe play. Nothing wrong with going that route. If Gordon shows up before too much longer, than he’ll make more sense. I expect Gordon will show up before the opener, but we’re starting to move into the window where it looks more possible he might miss a game or two. I could go either way.
Question 15
In a snake draft. I have the 11th pick and really don't want to miss out on Damien Williams by waiting till my pick in the 3rd round. I am almost tempted to pick Tyreek Hill with my first pick and Williams with my 2nd. Am I too high on the Chiefs offense?
PAUL NICKAS (Jacksonville, FL)
KC offense looks like it’s going to be very special again. I wouldn’t be opposed to opening with a double dip. If that offense plays the way it’s supposed to, you could be on your way to a championship.
Question 16
Who are the four top backup quarterbacks?
Craig Leedy (Sacramento, CA)
We need to be looking for players with some realistic potential of getting on the field, and with some ability to put up top-15 numbers should that happen. Jacoby Brissett, I think, would be my clear No. 1, and I don’t see anybody else I’m really crazy about. San Francisco probably will be my No. 2 choice, but I’m not sure if they’re using C.J. Beathard or Nick Mullens as their backup. Tennessee could turn to Ryan Tannehill at some point. I think the Dolphins, Giants and Washington will use multiple starting quarterbacks before the year is through.
Question 17
I'm in a non-ppr league drafting at the #5 position. I've never taken a WR in the first round but I'm considering whether or not that would be the move to make assuming the first four picks go RB. If I select the top WR and go second or third-tier RB in round 2, does that start my roster building off on the wrong foot?
John Carter (Dallas, TX)
To me, it makes more sense to go with a proven, difference-making wide receiver, rather than a running back who’s more of a second-round type of guy – Conner, Cook, Mixon. I think there’s a good chance that the team in the No. 4 spot will be leery of selecting Ezekiel Elliott. If Elliott is there, you’ll have to decide whether you want to assume the risk of him possibly missing a game or two (and perhaps showing up in less than ideal condition).
Question 18
Can you discuss different draft strategies and how you would go about constructing your team with some of your favorite draft targets this year. I do realize that draft position has a lot to do with draft decisions. But, looking at this years talent, would you go RB,RB,WR? Or WR,WR,RB?
Frank Catalano (Houston, PA)
Whether you select RB or WR in the first round, I think, will be based on draft position. If you’re in the first four, then it will be a RB in most formats. If you’re outside the top 4, then most likely a WR. In the second round, I think we’ll see some of those elite WR available early in the round, then we’re moving into the second-tier running backs – guys like Dalvin Cook and Damien Williams. Travis Kelce also gets in this discussion. If you can open with a RB and a WR, it can give you a little more flexibility in the upcoming rounds. Basically, I think you’re taking whatever the overall draft board throws you in the early rounds, then you get into the area where there are some players that you have ranked higher than everyone else, where you’re going to be getting them regardless of which draft position you happen to have.
Question 19
I have the 2nd pick in a 2 QB league. I assume Mahomes is 1st off the board. Providing Elliott is in camp a week before start of season, would he be ranked #1 RB given strength of schedule, offensive line and other pertinent criteria? Or do you think there is another QB is worthy of the 2nd pick.
Timothy Danek (Downers Grove, IL)
I would be looking at Saquon Barkley. The top 6 picks, I think, would be the top 3 quarterbacks (Mahomes-Watson-Ryan) and the top 3 running backs (Barkley-Kamara-McCaffrey).
Question 20
Last night our group had its $100 auction draft where we get to keep up to 3 players (for 3 years) at their original auction value ($1 if they were free agents). The problem I've had now for the past 3 years is that at the end of the draft I'm leaving money on the table ($17 this year!) I kept Mahomes for $6, Kamara for $1, and Davante Adams for $1. I was able to get excellent value and a very deep team with players like Bell for $25, Kupp for $5, Godwin for $9, DJ Moore for $6, Ridley for $6, Sony Michel for $5, Hooper for $5, Tarik Cohen for $3 and Goff for $4. We only are allowed 15 roster spots. What advice can you give me, so money won't be left on the table in the future? Am I just overly focused on value?
Bryan Teegardin (Rochester, NY)
You go into your auction armed with your player values. You hope to land as many players as you can at 20, 30 and 40 percent less than you think they’re worth. But sometimes those killer deals don’t come. You need to keep one eye on the big picture, making sure that you spend your money,
Question 21
I am drafting last in a 15-round snake draft. Another owner drafting 11th and I (12th pick) are contemplating trading half of our draft picks to each other. One of us would get all four of our round 1 and round 2 picks. The other would then draft his entire team with all of our picks in the 3rd thru mid 10th round. Then the first owner drafts the rest of his team from the mid 10th thru the end of the 15 round. We are considering this because we both use your website and are afraid of constantly vulturing each other's picks. I know this is nuts, but do you favor either side of this trade? Or would you stand pat, and not trade any picks?
Matt Weintraub (Doylestown, PA)
It’s too outside the box for me. But if I was locked into one or the other, I would opt for the middle round picks. If you got the four early choices, you would probably select 2 elite receivers (JuJu, Adams), a good running back (perhaps Connor or Cook) and another running back or Travis Kelce. If you were to sit out those first four, you would perhaps still get four players in your top 30. Probably a couple of receivers like Godwin, Lockett or Antonio Brown. Maybe a pair of running backs among guys like Kerryon Johnson, Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs, and maybe Zach Ertz. Your four wouldn’t be prohibitively worse then the initial four, and you would then get to reel off another four picks at the end of the fifth round, and another four picks at the end of the seventh. Picking 12 players before anyone else in the league gets to pick eight, I think, would be the way to go.