Every so often a story comes along that you have to scrutinize a few times to make sure it's true. Apparently it is. Colts quarterback Andrew Luck, coming off a 4,600-yard, 39-TD season, is retiring.
That's the word from Adam Schefter. It's early and there aren't a lot of details, but people are probably drafting tonight, and thought I'd get something up as quickly as possible.
Some quick thoughts:
Don't draft Andrew Luck. The future is a big place, as someone once said to me, and who knows how Luck will feel a week or a month or two from now. But he's apparently been thinking about it for a while, in part due to the mental and physical stress of the various injuries and rehabs, and the Colts have been aware of it. Looks like he ain't playing this season.
Downgrade T.Y. Hilton, Eric Ebron and any other Colts pass catcher you were considering. Slightly downgrade Marlon Mack, since the idea the Colts would run more is offset by the fact that defenses won't fear the passing game as much.
Jacoby Brissett, in 15 starts two years ago, averaged just 203 passing yards and threw 13 TDs. But he's better than that now. Back then he'd just joined the team a few weeks before, the Colts offensive line was far worse, and the offensive coaching wasn't as good. Now it's Frank Reich's quarterback-friendly system, the line is dramatically better with an all-pro guard and a couple of other high picks, and Brissett has been working in the system and with these receivers since last preseason -- and as the starter this preseason. I think average passing production in the offense as presently constituted is reasonable, and Brissett's a runner. He ran for 260 yards and 4 TDs two years ago. I don't think he's a top 10 or 15 QB, but top 20 is possible. He should be drafted as a backup.
The rankings update with all affected players will be out Monday morning. Will try to ballpark specific questions as I see them.
The other big story from tonight is that Lamar Miller suffered a knee injury against Dallas, and apparently the belief is a torn ACL. That's not official, but seems plausible if you saw the injury. Don't draft Miller. Duke Johnson looks like the main beneficiary, and Johnson might very well start. Houston's other in-house possibilities are a lot less accomplished. Damarea Crockett is a possibility for an increased role, and Houston might add somebody, but if you're drafting right now, move Johnson way up. (We had Miller 37th and Johnson 39th; for now I think Johnson is a top-30 type of back.) He's big enough and capable enough to be a lead back in the offense, though it's not 100 percent certain he'll get that chance.
--Andy Richardson