The season will start in just over a week, and I think there are at least two more big personnel moves coming. Houston might be involved in both of them.
The Texans are looking to deal JaDeveon Clowney. He’s an unsigned franchise player, giving him some control over where he’ll go. Miami supposedly has some interested in Clowney, but he’d prefer to go to Seattle. That will be a blockbuster-type deal.
More notable for fantasy purposes, I expect the Texans will add a running back. With Lamar Miller out for the year, they’re down to Duke Johnson and not much else at the position. They need to add another viable player who can run the football, and I expect that will happen before the start of the season.
As it stands right now, the Texans have veteran journeyman Taiwan Jones and not much else. Jones has been primarily a special teams player for the last eight years, with only 44 career carries. Buddy Howell was a special teams player last year. He carried 15 times for 84 yards in the preseason game against Detroit, but all of that work came in the fourth quarter, after the deep reserves had taken over. I have re-watched those carries, and Howell doesn’t look like a guy who would make the 53-man roster in the vast majority of cities.
“We'll see what happens,” says Bill O’Brien. “Anything can happen."
Johnson has been in the league for four years. He’s never run for 400 yards in a season, but he’s capable of doing a lot more than the Browns ever asked of him. Cleveland always used him as primarily a third-down back (Johnson has caught 235 passes the last four years).
Johnson ran for 3,519 yards in three years at Miami, averaging 6.7 yards per carry. He is the all-time leading rusher in the history of that school. That’s hard to believe, given all the great backs who played there (Chuck Foreman, Ottis Anderson, Melvin Bratton, Willis McGahee, Clinton Portis, Alonzo Highsmith and others).
"I wouldn't call him a third-down back," O'Brien told reporters at a press conference. "In the past he's played a lot against sub defenses, but you can see sub defenses on first, second or third downs. I think with us he'll be used in a lot of different ways … We've got a lot of other guys at that position that we can mix and match with."
I expect Johnson will be Houston’s primary runner, but I don’t think they want him handling the ball much more than about 15 times per game. He’s not running for 900-plus yards. I expect they’ll watch the waiver moves and pick up another back or two who can come in and handle a good chunk of the load. If the Texans were to swing a trade for Melvin Gordon, that would change things, but I haven’t heard anything suggesting that kind of a deal is in the works. More likely, I think the Texans will be picking up somebody along the lines of Wendell Smallwood, Josh Adams, Bilal Powell or C.J. Prosise.
Johnson is small (5-9, 210), but with his speed and elusiveness, he might fit in well with Houston’s offense. He’s a player who’s best used in space. The Texans don’t have much of an offensive line, but they’ll use primarily three-receiver sets. Johnson could be running lots of draws in such a system.
Johnson is a superb pass catcher, but that hasn’t been a big part of Houston’s offense. The Texans completed only 50 passes to running backs last year – 18 fewer than every other team.
| RECEIVING PRODUCTION BY RUNNING BACKS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | No | Yards | Avg | TD |
| New England | 121 | 999 | 8.3 | 8 |
| Detroit | 116 | 753 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Carolina | 114 | 919 | 8.1 | 7 |
| NY Giants | 113 | 860 | 7.6 | 4 |
| New Orleans | 109 | 903 | 8.3 | 7 |
| LA Chargers | 107 | 1050 | 9.8 | 7 |
| Oakland | 107 | 839 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Chicago | 102 | 965 | 9.5 | 7 |
| Jacksonville | 98 | 791 | 8.1 | 5 |
| Indianapolis | 97 | 616 | 6.4 | 3 |
| Denver | 95 | 700 | 7.4 | 2 |
| Dallas | 88 | 640 | 7.3 | 3 |
| Pittsburgh | 88 | 752 | 8.5 | 4 |
| Cincinnati | 83 | 555 | 6.7 | 1 |
| San Francisco | 83 | 781 | 9.4 | 3 |
| Cleveland | 82 | 712 | 8.7 | 5 |
| Kansas City | 82 | 922 | 11.2 | 12 |
| Washington | 81 | 613 | 7.6 | 3 |
| Arizona | 79 | 603 | 7.6 | 3 |
| Minnesota | 78 | 563 | 7.2 | 2 |
| Miami | 77 | 670 | 8.7 | 7 |
| Philadelphia | 77 | 660 | 8.6 | 4 |
| Tennessee | 74 | 499 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Green Bay | 72 | 601 | 8.3 | 1 |
| Baltimore | 70 | 454 | 6.5 | 3 |
| LA Rams | 70 | 676 | 9.7 | 5 |
| Buffalo | 69 | 588 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Atlanta | 68 | 471 | 6.9 | 5 |
| NY Jets | 68 | 599 | 8.8 | 2 |
| Seattle | 68 | 509 | 7.5 | 1 |
| Tampa Bay | 68 | 434 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Houston | 50 | 380 | 7.6 | 2 |
Houston likely will start the season without slot receiver Keke Coutee. They’ll likely replace him with DeAndre Carter (who’s looked surprisingly serviceable in the preseason) but the Coutee injury could open up some short-range receiving opportunities for Johnson.
While a notable move is likely coming, Johnson in my opinion looks like a pretty solid fantasy choice. Should be one of the first 30 running backs selected, I think.
—Ian Allan