Three teams went undefeated in the preseason. Is that an indication that they’re more likely to win their divisions?
That hasn’t been the case recently. Especially in recent years, with more teams following the lead of Sean McVay, Doug Pederson and Matt Nagy. All of those coaches have won division titles the last two years, and none of them give a hoot about the preseason. Better to keep players safely packed away for the real games.
In the last five years, 13 teams have gone 4-0 in the preseason. Only two of those teams went on to win their division, and only two others made the playoffs.
So while the Bills, Ravens and Giants all ran the table in August, probably best in each case to stick with what you thought of those teams a month ago.
Baltimore has been the king of preseason football. In five of the last six years it has gone undefeated. But only two of those teams then made the playoffs (and none of those teams actually won a playoff game).
4-0 TEAMS IN THE PRESEASON | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | W | L | T | Pct | Comment |
2014 | Baltimore | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 | wild card |
2014 | Minnesota | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 | |
2014 | NY Giants | 6 | 10 | 0 | .375 | |
2015 | Kansas City | 11 | 5 | 0 | .688 | wild card |
2016 | Houston | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 | AFC South |
2016 | Baltimore | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 | |
2016 | Minnesota | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 | |
2016 | Philadelphia | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 | |
2017 | Baltimore | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 | |
2017 | Seattle | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 | |
2017 | Denver | 5 | 11 | 0 | .313 | |
2017 | Cleveland | 0 | 16 | 0 | .000 | |
2018 | Baltimore | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 | AFC North |
2019 | • Buffalo | ? | ? | ? | ? | |
2019 | • Baltimore | ? | ? | ? | ? | |
2019 | • NY Giants | ? | ? | ? | ? |
Similarly, the Jaguars and Lions both went winless in the preseason, but nobody should be giving up on them just yet.
Over the last five years, 12 teams have gone 0-4 in preseason games, and their success rate in the regular games has been pretty similar. Three of those teams won their divisions, and two others were wild cards.
0-4 TEAMS IN THE PRESEASON | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | W | L | T | Pct | Comment |
2014 | Dallas | 12 | 4 | 0 | .750 | NFC East |
2014 | Indianapolis | 11 | 5 | 0 | .688 | AFC South |
2015 | St. Louis | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 | |
2015 | New Orleans | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 | |
2016 | New Orleans | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 | |
2016 | Cleveland | 1 | 15 | 0 | .063 | |
2017 | Atlanta | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 | wild card |
2017 | Oakland | 6 | 10 | 0 | .375 | |
2018 | Seattle | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 | wild card |
2018 | Dallas | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 | NFC East |
2018 | Tennessee | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 | |
2018 | Atlanta | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 | |
2019 | • Jacksonville | ? | ? | ? | ? | |
2019 | • Detroit | ? | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan