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Factoid

Sony Michel

Patriots / goal-line rushing

The Patriots score three short rushing touchdowns on Thursday night, and Sony Michel didn’t get any of them. Is this is a sign of things to come? Or simply a statistical aberration?

Michel misfired on a couple of short-yardage plays early in the game. He was stopped on third-and-one, and then stopped on fourth-and-one, with the Patriots turning the ball over on downs. The Patriots don’t have a great offensive line right now, but in that situation, it looked as if a better back would have figured out a way to move the sticks.

Those carries might have played in a role in the play-calling later in the game. Veteran Brandon Bolden later got 2 carries near the goal line, lining up at tailback to bash the ball for 2 yards down to the goal line, then punching it in 2 plays later. Tom Brady has long been an effective quarterback sneaker, and he had 3 goal-line sneaks in the Giants game, scoring a pair of touchdowns.

The Patriots a few weeks back lost fullback James Develin to a season-ending injury. In the New York game, his replacement – Jakob Johnson – also was lost for the season, limiting the team’s options.

To me, Michel looks like an ordinary back. He’s a former first-round pick, but he’s never played like it. He hasn’t been as dynamic or explosive as he was at Georgia. He’s been pretty ordinary, and I expect the Patriots will continue to mix and match, plugging in other backs to pick up some of the workload.

Brandon Bolden is primarily a special teams player, but I think he’ll continue to get a few touches and goal-line looks. He’s scored touchdowns three weeks in a row.

James White isn’t much of a factor as a runner. He might not run for 200 yards or 2 TDs all year; his job is to create mismatches as a pass catcher. He’ll probably catch 80-plus balls, but he’s very much a third-down back.

Rex Burkhead is their most versatile running back. After White, he’s their best pass-catching back, and he might also be their 2nd-best runner. When he’s been out there, he’s averaged more total yards than Michel or White. They used him some as a short-yardage back a few years back.

They drafted Damien Harris in the third round, and I thought he looked fine in the preseason. But they seem to be redshirting him; they haven’t been activating him. Presumably he’s working on his game and learning the offense, but it’s possible Harris will be left in mothballs until 2020.

Regardless, it doesn’t look like Michel will be consistently knocking in the 1- and 2-yard touchdown runs for the Patriots. So far this year, 38 running backs have carried the ball at least 3 times when their team has needed 1 yard to either score or keep a drive alive (on third or fourth down). Michel is only 4 of 7 on such plays, coming in behind 28 of those other 37 players.

On the numbers below, you’re seeing everything through the Thursday game.

AND-ONE RUSHING
PlayerGoodAttPct
Todd Gurley, LAR551.000
Phillip Lindsay, Den.331.000
Mark Ingram, Balt.331.000
Kirk Cousins, Min.331.000
Jordan Howard, Phil.441.000
Jeff Wilson, S.F.331.000
Jacoby Brissett, Ind.661.000
Ezekiel Elliot, Dall.661.000
Deshaun Watson, Hou.331.000
Damien Williams, K.C.331.000
Carlos Hyde, Hou.551.000
Duke Johnson, Hou.78.875
Carson Wentz, Phil.78.875
Derrick Henry, Ten.67.857
Tom Brady, N.E.45.800
Joe Mixon, Cin.45.800
Austin Ekeler, LAC45.800
Alvin Kamara, N.O.45.800
Josh Jacobs, Oak.68.750
Gus Edwards, Balt.34.750
Dalvin Cook, Min.34.750
Marlon Mack, Ind.46.667
LeVeon Bell, NYJ23.667
Leonard Fournette, Jac.46.667
Derek Watt, LAC23.667
David Montgomery, Chi.23.667
Andy Dalton, Cin.23.667
LeSean McCoy, K.C.35.600
Sony Michel, N.E.47.571
Kerryon Johnson, Det.47.571
Chris Carson, Sea.47.571
Frank Gore, Buff.24.500
Devonta Freeman, Atl.24.500
Aaron Jones, G.B.24.500
James Conner, Pitt.25.400
Wayne Gallman, NYG13.333
Christian McCaffrey, Car.14.250
Adrian Peterson, Was.14.250

Michel was not good in these situations last year either. The Patriots went to him 23 times when they were looking for a tough yard, and he was able to come through only 12 times. There were 38 players with at least 8 of those carries, and he ranked 30th.

AND-ONE RUSHING (2018 SEASON)
PlayerGoodAttPct
Joe Flacco, Balt.991.000
Josh Allen, Buff.991.000
Drew Brees, N.O.991.000
Marcus Mariota, Ten.910.900
Cam Newton, Car.78.875
Melvin Gordon, LAC78.875
Sam Darnold, NYJ78.875
Derrick Henry, Ten.1214.857
Alvin Kamara, N.O.1113.846
Christian McCaffrey, Car.1012.833
Lamar Jackson, Balt.911.818
Adrian Peterson, Was.810.800
James Conner, Pitt.1621.762
Todd Gurley, LAR1419.737
Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.1926.731
Phillip Lindsay, Den.811.727
David Johnson, Ariz.1217.706
Chris Carson, Sea.1927.704
Leonard Fournette, Jac.710.700
Saquon Barkley, NYG913.692
Joe Mixon, Cin.1421.667
Jordan Howard, Chi.1218.667
Kareem Hunt, K.C.69.667
Marshawn Lynch, Oak.58.625
Alfred Morris, S.F.58.625
Marlon Mack, Ind.915.600
LeGarrette Blount, Det.610.600
Peyton Barber, T.B.59.556
Nick Chubb, Clev.611.545
Sony Michel, N.E.1223.522
Carlos Hyde, 2 tm714.500
Alfred Blue, Hou.612.500
Latavius Murray, Min.510.500
Mark Ingram, N.O.510.500
Doug Martin, Oak.510.500
James White, N.E.48.500
Austin Ekeler, LAC49.444
Josh Adams, Phil.18.125

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index