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Factoid

Sputtering backs

Can Gordon, Mixon turn things around?

What do we make of guys like Melvin Gordon and Joe Mixon. They’re talented running backs, but they’re definitely struggling. Do they (and their teams) have any chance of turning things around?

The numbers are pretty amazing. The Chargers and Bengals have both reached the halfway point of the season, and each have been held under 40 rushing yards (as a team) in half of their eight games. In the last 15 years, no other offense has finished with fewer than 40 rushing yards four times in an entire season. Only three have had three such games.

RUNNING FOR UNDER 40 YARDS
YearTeamGames
2019LA Chargers4
2019Cincinnati4
2005Philadelphia3
2013Atlanta3
2004Oakland2
2004Detroit2
2004Carolina2
2005Oakland2
2005NY Jets2
2005New England2
2006Kansas City2
2006Detroit2
2006Cleveland2
2007Tampa Bay2
2008Jacksonville2
2009San Diego2
2010Denver2
2010Dallas2
2012Tennessee2
2012Oakland2
2012Dallas2
2012Arizona2
2013St. Louis2
2013Pittsburgh2
2013Miami2
2014Oakland2
2015Washington2
2015Detroit2
2015Cleveland2
2016San Diego2
2016Pittsburgh2
2016NY Giants2
2017Oakland2
2017NY Jets2
2017Arizona2
2018Pittsburgh2
2018NY Giants2
2018Detroit2
2019Kansas City2

It got me wondering how many other struggling running teams have been able to turn things around. (And this applies not only to the Chargers and Bengals, but also the Dolphins, Jets and Bears.).

On this one, I looked at the rushing stats for the first half of the season for the last 10 years. I took the 30 worst rushing teams (using 6 for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 rushing yards). Then I looked at how those teams did in their final eight games.

Of the 30, I see five that were able to bounce back and put up above-average rushing numbers as a team in the second half of the season, but nobody’s done it since the 2013 Rams. (In the chart below, those teams are in bold.)

Another six teams were able to at least escape the bottom 10. They still finished with below-average numbers, but thee was at least some improvement. (They’ve got the black dots).

For 19 of the 30 teams, however, they continued to struggle, following up their lousy first halves by also ranking in the bottom 10 in their final eight games.

These kind of figures indicate that it’s unlikely that Gordon and Mixon will suddenly turn things around and start playing like what folks thought they would be back in August.

On this chart below, you’re looking at attempts, yards and rushing touchdowns (separated by hyphens – att-yds-TD) for the first eight games. The rank (using fantasy scoring). Then the same numbers for the second half of the season. It’s a little complicated; sorry.

BAD RUSHING TEAMS IN FIRST EIGHT GAMES
YearTeamG 1-8RkG 9-16Rk
2009Kansas City218-769-032220-1160-88
2010Dallas169-605-232259-1181-85
2010Denver185-538-530213-1006-88
2010• New Orleans187-678-231193-841-718
2011• Tennessee178-560-332198-878-521
2011Cleveland211-657-231204-874-228
2012Green Bay195-721-229238-981-713
2012Arizona183-632-330169-572-727
2012Jacksonville181-672-232177-697-329
2012Oakland174-618-331202-802-130
2013St. Louis192-694-032234-1058-106
2013• New Orleans191-638-327200-835-718
2013• Atlanta149-515-331172-732-819
2013Pittsburgh167-589-328227-794-624
2013Jacksonville179-531-330199-729-429
2013Cleveland171-661-129177-722-330
2014Oakland151-524-232186-716-230
2015• Detroit150-557-232204-778-517
2015• Cleveland195-672-231185-857-320
2015Jacksonville191-774-129163-699-426
2015San Diego192-691-230201-667-230
2016NY Giants171-546-432227-866-228
2016Minnesota214-581-431166-624-530
2017Tampa Bay178-655-327211-795-523
2017NY Giants175-694-229219-855-424
2017Cincinnati188-578-231189-788-426
2017Miami186-621-032174-767-428
2017Detroit198-639-328165-582-729
2017Arizona190-611-330219-775-330
2018Arizona161-540-532194-802-427

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index