What do we make of guys like Melvin Gordon and Joe Mixon. They’re talented running backs, but they’re definitely struggling. Do they (and their teams) have any chance of turning things around?
The numbers are pretty amazing. The Chargers and Bengals have both reached the halfway point of the season, and each have been held under 40 rushing yards (as a team) in half of their eight games. In the last 15 years, no other offense has finished with fewer than 40 rushing yards four times in an entire season. Only three have had three such games.
RUNNING FOR UNDER 40 YARDS | ||
---|---|---|
Year | Team | Games |
2019 | LA Chargers | 4 |
2019 | Cincinnati | 4 |
2005 | Philadelphia | 3 |
2013 | Atlanta | 3 |
2004 | Oakland | 2 |
2004 | Detroit | 2 |
2004 | Carolina | 2 |
2005 | Oakland | 2 |
2005 | NY Jets | 2 |
2005 | New England | 2 |
2006 | Kansas City | 2 |
2006 | Detroit | 2 |
2006 | Cleveland | 2 |
2007 | Tampa Bay | 2 |
2008 | Jacksonville | 2 |
2009 | San Diego | 2 |
2010 | Denver | 2 |
2010 | Dallas | 2 |
2012 | Tennessee | 2 |
2012 | Oakland | 2 |
2012 | Dallas | 2 |
2012 | Arizona | 2 |
2013 | St. Louis | 2 |
2013 | Pittsburgh | 2 |
2013 | Miami | 2 |
2014 | Oakland | 2 |
2015 | Washington | 2 |
2015 | Detroit | 2 |
2015 | Cleveland | 2 |
2016 | San Diego | 2 |
2016 | Pittsburgh | 2 |
2016 | NY Giants | 2 |
2017 | Oakland | 2 |
2017 | NY Jets | 2 |
2017 | Arizona | 2 |
2018 | Pittsburgh | 2 |
2018 | NY Giants | 2 |
2018 | Detroit | 2 |
2019 | Kansas City | 2 |
It got me wondering how many other struggling running teams have been able to turn things around. (And this applies not only to the Chargers and Bengals, but also the Dolphins, Jets and Bears.).
On this one, I looked at the rushing stats for the first half of the season for the last 10 years. I took the 30 worst rushing teams (using 6 for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 rushing yards). Then I looked at how those teams did in their final eight games.
Of the 30, I see five that were able to bounce back and put up above-average rushing numbers as a team in the second half of the season, but nobody’s done it since the 2013 Rams. (In the chart below, those teams are in bold.)
Another six teams were able to at least escape the bottom 10. They still finished with below-average numbers, but thee was at least some improvement. (They’ve got the black dots).
For 19 of the 30 teams, however, they continued to struggle, following up their lousy first halves by also ranking in the bottom 10 in their final eight games.
These kind of figures indicate that it’s unlikely that Gordon and Mixon will suddenly turn things around and start playing like what folks thought they would be back in August.
On this chart below, you’re looking at attempts, yards and rushing touchdowns (separated by hyphens – att-yds-TD) for the first eight games. The rank (using fantasy scoring). Then the same numbers for the second half of the season. It’s a little complicated; sorry.
BAD RUSHING TEAMS IN FIRST EIGHT GAMES | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | G 1-8 | Rk | G 9-16 | Rk |
2009 | Kansas City | 218-769-0 | 32 | 220-1160-8 | 8 |
2010 | Dallas | 169-605-2 | 32 | 259-1181-8 | 5 |
2010 | Denver | 185-538-5 | 30 | 213-1006-8 | 8 |
2010 | • New Orleans | 187-678-2 | 31 | 193-841-7 | 18 |
2011 | • Tennessee | 178-560-3 | 32 | 198-878-5 | 21 |
2011 | Cleveland | 211-657-2 | 31 | 204-874-2 | 28 |
2012 | Green Bay | 195-721-2 | 29 | 238-981-7 | 13 |
2012 | Arizona | 183-632-3 | 30 | 169-572-7 | 27 |
2012 | Jacksonville | 181-672-2 | 32 | 177-697-3 | 29 |
2012 | Oakland | 174-618-3 | 31 | 202-802-1 | 30 |
2013 | St. Louis | 192-694-0 | 32 | 234-1058-10 | 6 |
2013 | • New Orleans | 191-638-3 | 27 | 200-835-7 | 18 |
2013 | • Atlanta | 149-515-3 | 31 | 172-732-8 | 19 |
2013 | Pittsburgh | 167-589-3 | 28 | 227-794-6 | 24 |
2013 | Jacksonville | 179-531-3 | 30 | 199-729-4 | 29 |
2013 | Cleveland | 171-661-1 | 29 | 177-722-3 | 30 |
2014 | Oakland | 151-524-2 | 32 | 186-716-2 | 30 |
2015 | • Detroit | 150-557-2 | 32 | 204-778-5 | 17 |
2015 | • Cleveland | 195-672-2 | 31 | 185-857-3 | 20 |
2015 | Jacksonville | 191-774-1 | 29 | 163-699-4 | 26 |
2015 | San Diego | 192-691-2 | 30 | 201-667-2 | 30 |
2016 | NY Giants | 171-546-4 | 32 | 227-866-2 | 28 |
2016 | Minnesota | 214-581-4 | 31 | 166-624-5 | 30 |
2017 | Tampa Bay | 178-655-3 | 27 | 211-795-5 | 23 |
2017 | NY Giants | 175-694-2 | 29 | 219-855-4 | 24 |
2017 | Cincinnati | 188-578-2 | 31 | 189-788-4 | 26 |
2017 | Miami | 186-621-0 | 32 | 174-767-4 | 28 |
2017 | Detroit | 198-639-3 | 28 | 165-582-7 | 29 |
2017 | Arizona | 190-611-3 | 30 | 219-775-3 | 30 |
2018 | Arizona | 161-540-5 | 32 | 194-802-4 | 27 |
—Ian Allan