The Jaguars are putting Nick Foles back in the starting lineup, and the timing could hardly be better for him. They’re about to hit a remarkably soft portion of their schedule, with plenty of lesser pass defenses on tap.
Based on how defenses have played so far, in fact, Jacksonville’s next six games are against the worst pass defenses in the league – a group that on average is allowing 2 TDs per week.
This is part of the weekly process here. You plug in the current numbers and see what bubbles to the surface. For this week, I’m looking at the next six games for each team. That’s Weeks 10-15 for most teams, but Weeks 10-16 for those that haven’t yet had their bye.
For passing, the Jaguars, Jets and Bucs project to play the easiest schedules. The hardest four schedules, interestingly, all belong to teams with possible top-5 quarterbacks – Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson.
(For these charts, I’m assuming standard fantasy scoring – 1 point for every 10 yards, with 6 points for touchdowns.)
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, PASSING (next 6 games) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TDP | Pts |
Jacksonville | 269 | 2.00 | 38.9 |
NY Jets | 273 | 1.82 | 38.3 |
Tampa Bay | 269 | 1.87 | 38.2 |
Indianapolis | 271 | 1.83 | 38.1 |
LA Chargers | 265 | 1.82 | 37.4 |
San Francisco | 276 | 1.62 | 37.3 |
Tennessee | 268 | 1.75 | 37.3 |
Chicago | 276 | 1.54 | 36.9 |
Washington | 272 | 1.59 | 36.8 |
Carolina | 265 | 1.69 | 36.6 |
Cleveland | 255 | 1.80 | 36.3 |
New Orleans | 252 | 1.79 | 35.9 |
LA Rams | 269 | 1.44 | 35.5 |
NY Giants | 260 | 1.59 | 35.5 |
Arizona | 253 | 1.62 | 35.1 |
Pittsburgh | 250 | 1.67 | 35.0 |
Cincinnati | 254 | 1.58 | 34.9 |
Denver | 254 | 1.55 | 34.7 |
Detroit | 259 | 1.43 | 34.4 |
Seattle | 248 | 1.60 | 34.4 |
Oakland | 254 | 1.48 | 34.2 |
Miami | 249 | 1.53 | 34.1 |
Buffalo | 247 | 1.48 | 33.6 |
New England | 252 | 1.37 | 33.4 |
Minnesota | 257 | 1.26 | 33.2 |
Philadelphia | 249 | 1.38 | 33.1 |
Atlanta | 248 | 1.38 | 33.0 |
Green Bay | 241 | 1.37 | 32.3 |
Baltimore | 244 | 1.29 | 32.2 |
Houston | 246 | 1.26 | 32.2 |
Kansas City | 238 | 1.31 | 31.7 |
Dallas | 239 | 1.17 | 30.9 |
For rushing, Washington, Pittsburgh and the Jets project to play the easiest schedules. Houston, Kansas City and Jacksonville project to see the hardest schedules. That’s using a mix of yards and rushing touchdowns.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, RUSHING (next 6 games) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TDP | Pts |
Washington | 117 | 1.22 | 19.0 |
NY Jets | 128 | 1.00 | 18.8 |
Pittsburgh | 133 | .87 | 18.5 |
Chicago | 120 | 1.04 | 18.2 |
Oakland | 124 | .95 | 18.1 |
Carolina | 115 | 1.08 | 17.9 |
Cleveland | 130 | .80 | 17.9 |
Philadelphia | 119 | .96 | 17.7 |
NY Giants | 114 | 1.04 | 17.7 |
New England | 116 | .95 | 17.3 |
Minnesota | 114 | .96 | 17.2 |
Miami | 111 | .98 | 17.0 |
Green Bay | 115 | .89 | 16.8 |
New Orleans | 110 | .96 | 16.7 |
San Francisco | 107 | 1.00 | 16.7 |
Tampa Bay | 116 | .85 | 16.7 |
Atlanta | 103 | 1.06 | 16.7 |
Buffalo | 115 | .82 | 16.4 |
Baltimore | 110 | .87 | 16.2 |
Denver | 114 | .76 | 15.9 |
LA Rams | 102 | .88 | 15.5 |
Dallas | 105 | .82 | 15.4 |
Seattle | 107 | .78 | 15.4 |
Arizona | 105 | .76 | 15.1 |
Cincinnati | 102 | .80 | 15.0 |
Tennessee | 105 | .74 | 14.9 |
LA Chargers | 108 | .69 | 14.9 |
Indianapolis | 103 | .73 | 14.8 |
Detroit | 99 | .79 | 14.6 |
Jacksonville | 102 | .72 | 14.6 |
Kansas City | 102 | .68 | 14.2 |
Houston | 97 | .71 | 13.9 |
Looking solely at offensive touchdowns (rushing and passing, but not returns), the easiest upcoming schedules belong to two teams with lesser offenses – Jets and Washington – with Carolina, New Orleans and Jacksonville on the next tier. All of those teams (in their next six) should face defenses averaging close to 3 TDs per week.
The hardest upcoming schedules will be played by four of the league’s best offenses. Houston, Dallas, Kansas City and Baltimore will all play teams in their next six that are allowing bout 2 TDs per game.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, TOUCHDOWNS (next 6 games) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Run | Pass | Total |
NY Jets | 1.00 | 1.82 | 2.82 |
Washington | 1.22 | 1.59 | 2.81 |
Carolina | 1.08 | 1.69 | 2.76 |
New Orleans | .96 | 1.79 | 2.75 |
Jacksonville | .72 | 2.00 | 2.72 |
Tampa Bay | .85 | 1.87 | 2.72 |
NY Giants | 1.04 | 1.59 | 2.63 |
San Francisco | 1.00 | 1.62 | 2.63 |
Cleveland | .80 | 1.80 | 2.60 |
Chicago | 1.04 | 1.54 | 2.58 |
Indianapolis | .73 | 1.83 | 2.57 |
Pittsburgh | .87 | 1.67 | 2.54 |
LA Chargers | .69 | 1.82 | 2.51 |
Miami | .98 | 1.53 | 2.51 |
Tennessee | .74 | 1.75 | 2.49 |
Atlanta | 1.06 | 1.38 | 2.44 |
Oakland | .95 | 1.48 | 2.43 |
Arizona | .76 | 1.62 | 2.38 |
Seattle | .78 | 1.60 | 2.38 |
Cincinnati | .80 | 1.58 | 2.38 |
Philadelphia | .96 | 1.38 | 2.34 |
LA Rams | .88 | 1.44 | 2.32 |
New England | .95 | 1.37 | 2.32 |
Denver | .76 | 1.55 | 2.31 |
Buffalo | .82 | 1.48 | 2.30 |
Green Bay | .89 | 1.37 | 2.26 |
Minnesota | .96 | 1.26 | 2.22 |
Detroit | .79 | 1.43 | 2.22 |
Baltimore | .87 | 1.29 | 2.16 |
Kansas City | .68 | 1.31 | 1.99 |
Dallas | .82 | 1.17 | 1.98 |
Houston | .71 | 1.26 | 1.97 |
—Ian Allan