I promised late last week that I would take a look at Strength of Schedule for defenses. That is, look at where the bad offenses will be playing, and whether that can help to turn some average defenses into fantasy assets.
On this one, I’m ignoring fumbles and touchdowns. Those categories tend to be heavily influenced by chance/luck. I instead focused on just interceptions and sacks. You look at what teams should win in those categories, and they tend to have the best defenses.
Sounds good in theory, but my numbers reveal that three of the five defenses that should benefit from scheduling the most are ones that nobody will want any part of – Dolphins, Bengals and Jets (sitting at a combined 1-22).
The Steelers and Ravens have the other two defense that should tend to play the offenses that have been most plagued by turnovers.
On this one, I looked at average interceptions and sacks per game. Then I looked at the next eight games for each team. So on the chart below, you’re looking at a half season for each team. If they play defense in an average, typical way, they should get interception and sack totals somewhere close to what’s listed.
On the “points” column, that’s using 1 for sacks and 2 for interceptions.
Some notable defenses show up in the bottom 10, including the 49ers, Cowboys, Rams, Bears, Vikings and Titans. Those are groups that should be hurt by scheduling. Not that anybody should be releasing the San Francisco defense, but scheduling will work against it.
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (defenses, next 8 games) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Defense | Int | Sack | F Pts |
| Miami | 9.2 | 25.6 | 44.0 |
| Pittsburgh | 8.9 | 23.8 | 41.7 |
| Cincinnati | 9.5 | 21.2 | 40.1 |
| Baltimore | 8.7 | 22.2 | 39.5 |
| NY Jets | 8.8 | 21.8 | 39.5 |
| New Orleans | 7.0 | 23.2 | 37.3 |
| Indianapolis | 7.0 | 23.3 | 37.3 |
| NY Giants | 7.6 | 21.9 | 37.1 |
| Buffalo | 8.4 | 19.7 | 36.5 |
| Cleveland | 7.4 | 21.7 | 36.5 |
| Philadelphia | 7.6 | 20.8 | 35.9 |
| Atlanta | 7.1 | 21.4 | 35.5 |
| Washington | 6.9 | 21.7 | 35.4 |
| New England | 7.1 | 20.7 | 34.9 |
| Houston | 5.4 | 23.9 | 34.6 |
| Oakland | 5.8 | 22.1 | 33.7 |
| Detroit | 6.8 | 20.0 | 33.7 |
| Arizona | 8.2 | 16.5 | 32.8 |
| Jacksonville | 6.4 | 19.9 | 32.7 |
| Seattle | 6.7 | 19.2 | 32.5 |
| Green Bay | 6.4 | 19.1 | 31.8 |
| Carolina | 5.3 | 19.8 | 30.4 |
| Dallas | 6.1 | 17.9 | 30.0 |
| Denver | 6.1 | 17.3 | 29.5 |
| LA Rams | 5.4 | 18.3 | 29.1 |
| Kansas City | 5.2 | 18.6 | 28.9 |
| San Francisco | 4.7 | 19.3 | 28.7 |
| Tampa Bay | 4.4 | 19.0 | 27.7 |
| Chicago | 5.1 | 15.9 | 26.2 |
| Minnesota | 4.3 | 17.4 | 26.0 |
| Tennessee | 4.1 | 17.1 | 25.3 |
| LA Chargers | 2.9 | 14.7 | 20.4 |
—Ian Allan