The Jets have taken their lumps so far, ranking last in scoring. But they’ve got an unusually easy schedule coming up. Is there any chance they can cobble together some decent offensive production?
New York’s easy scheduling run got off to a bad start last week, with the offense managing only one touchdown at Miami. That’s not a confidence booster.
The historical numbers show that when an offense is bad in the first half of a season, it’s also usually bad in the second.
In the last 10 years, 52 teams have averaged fewer than 18 points in their first eight games. Only 5 of those teams – less than 10 percent – finished with above-average production in the second half of the season. The 2011 Seahawks (the season before they drafted Russell Wilson) are the only team in this group that moved all the way up into ranking in the top 10 in scoring (after ranking 28th in their first eight games).
Only 9 of the 52 teams ranked in the top 20 in scoring (that includes those five above-average teams). Note that this group includes an Adam Gase team. The Dolphins in 2017 averaged only 14.5 points in their first eight games; they averaged 20.6 in the second half of the season, finishing just barely below average in scoring. So there’s that.
Only 15 of the 52 were able to at least escape the bottom 10.
There are some clunker offenses out there right now, with the Jets leading the way, at just 12 points per week. Washington and Miami aren’t far behind.
I would expect all three of those teams, despite scheduling help, will rank in the bottom 10 in scoring in November/December.
AVERAGING UNDER 18 POINTS IN FIRST EIGHT GAMES | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | G 1-8 | Rank | G 9-16 | Rank |
2009 | St. Louis | 9.6 | 32 | 12.3 | 32 |
2009 | Oakland | 9.8 | 30-31 | 14.9 | 29 |
2009 | Cleveland | 9.8 | 30-31 | 20.9 | 17-19 |
2013 | Jacksonville | 10.8 | 32 | 20.1 | 25 |
2018 | Buffalo | 10.9 | 32 | 22.8 | 18 |
2010 | Carolina | 11.0 | 32 | 13.5 | 32 |
2019 | NY Jets | 12.0 | 32 | ? | ? |
2011 | Jacksonville | 12.3 | 32 | 18.1 | 26 |
2019 | Washington | 12.4 | 31 | ? | ? |
2011 | St. Louis | 12.5 | 31 | 11.6 | 31 |
2019 | Miami | 12.9 | 30 | ? | ? |
2015 | San Francisco | 13.6 | 32 | 16.1 | 27-28 |
2018 | Arizona | 13.8 | 31 | 14.4 | 31 |
2009 | Washington | 14.1 | 29 | 19.1 | 22 |
2017 | Miami | 14.5 | 32 | 20.6 | 17-18 |
2012 | Jacksonville | 14.6 | 32 | 17.3 | 27 |
2014 | Jacksonville | 14.8 | 32 | 16.4 | 26 |
2011 | Cleveland | 14.9 | 30 | 12.4 | 30 |
2017 | Cleveland | 14.9 | 31 | 14.4 | 31 |
2009 | Buffalo | 15.0 | 28 | 17.3 | 25 |
2011 | Indianapolis | 15.1 | 29 | 15.3 | 29 |
2011 | • Seattle | 15.3 | 28 | 24.9 | 9 |
2013 | Tampa Bay | 15.5 | 31 | 20.5 | 22 |
2019 | Cincinnati | 15.5 | 29 | ? | ? |
2019 | Denver | 15.6 | 28 | ? | ? |
2009 | • Kansas City | 15.8 | 27 | 21.0 | 16 |
2011 | Washington | 15.9 | 27 | 20.1 | 20 |
2012 | Arizona | 15.9 | 31 | 15.4 | 28 |
2017 | Cincinnati | 16.1 | 29-30 | 20.1 | 19 |
2014 | Oakland | 16.1 | 31 | 15.5 | 29 |
2017 | NY Giants | 16.1 | 29-30 | 14.6 | 30 |
2010 | Seattle | 16.3 | 31 | 22.5 | 19 |
2016 | LA Rams | 16.3 | 32 | 11.8 | 32 |
2016 | Chicago | 16.4 | 31 | 18.5 | 26 |
2011 | Kansas City | 16.4 | 26 | 10.1 | 32 |
2017 | • San Francisco | 16.6 | 28 | 24.8 | 12 |
2012 | Oakland | 16.6 | 29-30 | 18.4 | 24 |
2009 | Detroit | 16.6 | 26 | 16.1 | 27 |
2012 | Kansas City | 16.6 | 29-30 | 9.8 | 32 |
2018 | Tennessee | 16.8 | 29-30 | 22.0 | 19 |
2017 | Chicago | 16.8 | 27 | 16.3 | 26 |
2009 | Tampa Bay | 16.8 | 25 | 13.8 | 31 |
2018 | Jacksonville | 16.8 | 29-30 | 13.9 | 32 |
2010 | San Francisco | 17.1 | 30 | 21.0 | 21 |
2012 | St. Louis | 17.1 | 28 | 20.3 | 22 |
2016 | Houston | 17.1 | 30 | 17.9 | 27 |
2014 | Tennessee | 17.1 | 30 | 14.6 | 31 |
2011 | • Miami | 17.3 | 25 | 23.9 | 11 |
2014 | • Minnesota | 17.4 | 29 | 23.3 | 13 |
2017 | Arizona | 17.4 | 26 | 19.5 | 20 |
2010 | St. Louis | 17.5 | 29 | 18.6 | 24 |
2012 | Seattle | 17.5 | 27 | 34.0 | 7-8 |
2018 | Oakland | 17.6 | 28 | 18.6 | 24 |
2013 | NY Giants | 17.6 | 30 | 19.1 | 27 |
2017 | Indianapolis | 17.8 | 25 | 15.1 | 29 |
2019 | Chicago | 17.8 | 27 | ? | ? |
2013 | NY Jets | 17.9 | 29 | 18.4 | 29 |
2010 | Miami | 17.9 | 28 | 16.3 | 29 |
—Ian Allan