Fantasy Index

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Factoid

Adam's Case

Will easy schedule help the Jets?

The Jets have taken their lumps so far, ranking last in scoring. But they’ve got an unusually easy schedule coming up. Is there any chance they can cobble together some decent offensive production?

New York’s easy scheduling run got off to a bad start last week, with the offense managing only one touchdown at Miami. That’s not a confidence booster.

The historical numbers show that when an offense is bad in the first half of a season, it’s also usually bad in the second.

In the last 10 years, 52 teams have averaged fewer than 18 points in their first eight games. Only 5 of those teams – less than 10 percent – finished with above-average production in the second half of the season. The 2011 Seahawks (the season before they drafted Russell Wilson) are the only team in this group that moved all the way up into ranking in the top 10 in scoring (after ranking 28th in their first eight games).

Only 9 of the 52 teams ranked in the top 20 in scoring (that includes those five above-average teams). Note that this group includes an Adam Gase team. The Dolphins in 2017 averaged only 14.5 points in their first eight games; they averaged 20.6 in the second half of the season, finishing just barely below average in scoring. So there’s that.

Only 15 of the 52 were able to at least escape the bottom 10.

There are some clunker offenses out there right now, with the Jets leading the way, at just 12 points per week. Washington and Miami aren’t far behind.

I would expect all three of those teams, despite scheduling help, will rank in the bottom 10 in scoring in November/December.

AVERAGING UNDER 18 POINTS IN FIRST EIGHT GAMES
YearTeamG 1-8RankG 9-16Rank
2009St. Louis9.63212.332
2009Oakland9.830-3114.929
2009Cleveland9.830-3120.917-19
2013Jacksonville10.83220.125
2018Buffalo10.93222.818
2010Carolina11.03213.532
2019NY Jets12.032??
2011Jacksonville12.33218.126
2019Washington12.431??
2011St. Louis12.53111.631
2019Miami12.930??
2015San Francisco13.63216.127-28
2018Arizona13.83114.431
2009Washington14.12919.122
2017Miami14.53220.617-18
2012Jacksonville14.63217.327
2014Jacksonville14.83216.426
2011Cleveland14.93012.430
2017Cleveland14.93114.431
2009Buffalo15.02817.325
2011Indianapolis15.12915.329
2011• Seattle15.32824.99
2013Tampa Bay15.53120.522
2019Cincinnati15.529??
2019Denver15.628??
2009• Kansas City15.82721.016
2011Washington15.92720.120
2012Arizona15.93115.428
2017Cincinnati16.129-3020.119
2014Oakland16.13115.529
2017NY Giants16.129-3014.630
2010Seattle16.33122.519
2016LA Rams16.33211.832
2016Chicago16.43118.526
2011Kansas City16.42610.132
2017• San Francisco16.62824.812
2012Oakland16.629-3018.424
2009Detroit16.62616.127
2012Kansas City16.629-309.832
2018Tennessee16.829-3022.019
2017Chicago16.82716.326
2009Tampa Bay16.82513.831
2018Jacksonville16.829-3013.932
2010San Francisco17.13021.021
2012St. Louis17.12820.322
2016Houston17.13017.927
2014Tennessee17.13014.631
2011• Miami17.32523.911
2014• Minnesota17.42923.313
2017Arizona17.42619.520
2010St. Louis17.52918.624
2012Seattle17.52734.07-8
2018Oakland17.62818.624
2013NY Giants17.63019.127
2017Indianapolis17.82515.129
2019Chicago17.827??
2013NY Jets17.92918.429
2010Miami17.92816.329

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index