I like Brian Hill this week. As I indicated in the Atlanta write-up, I think he’s got a chance to be a top-10 running back in Week 11. I think he’s a decent, capable back, and I love the matchup.
That may sound weird. For most of the last decade, Carolina has tended to be one of the better defenses at defending the run. But that’s not happening this year. Week in and week out, they’ve been among the worst against the run.
That was headlined by the meltdown game at San Francisco, with Tevin Coleman scoring 4 TDs and the 49ers piling up 232 rushing yards. But the Panthers more accurately have struggled against the run all along.
In my estimation, Carolina has actually played well against the run in only one game all year. They held Tampa Bay to 42 yards on 14 carries in the game played in London. In two other games, they held opponents just under their usual averages (the Bucs ran for 100 yards against them in Week 2, and the Texans ran for 136 two weeks later).
More commonly, the Panthers have underachieved. They’ve allowed over 160 rushing yards in three games (against offenses averaging over 60 fewer yards in their other games). The Jaguars usually average 130; they went for 149 against Carolina.
Overall, Carolina is allowing 137 rushing yards per game, which is 19 more yards than these opponents have averaged through Week 10. The Panthers have also allowed a league-high 17 rushing touchdowns (almost 2 per week), and 5.2 yards per carry.
The Falcons are missing three of their top five pass catchers (that’s including Mohamed Sanu, whom they traded a few weeks back). With that in mind, I expect they’ll come out on Sunday playing the same way they did in New Orleans, with a healthy number of running plays early.
Devonta Freeman is out. It’s Brian Hill’s show for now, and I think he’ll do just fine in this one.
| CAROLINA AGAINST THE RUN | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent | Att | Yards | Avg | TD | v. Exp |
| Rams | 32 | 166 | 5.2 | 2 | +70 |
| Bucs | 31 | 100 | 3.2 | 1 | -1 |
| at Cardinals | 22 | 121 | 5.5 | 0 | +5 |
| at Texans | 22 | 136 | 6.2 | 1 | -7 |
| Jaguars | 31 | 149 | 4.8 | 1 | +19 |
| Bucs (UK) | 14 | 42 | 3.0 | 2 | -59 |
| at 49ers | 38 | 232 | 6.1 | 5 | +70 |
| Titans | 21 | 121 | 5.8 | 2 | +8 |
| at Packers | 27 | 163 | 6.0 | 3 | +61 |
| Avg | 26 | 137 | 5.2 | 1.9 | +19 |
—Ian Allan